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| UK 100 Leaders | Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Johnson Matthey PLC | 2415 | 64 | 2.7 | 1.64 |
| Aggreko PLC | 1792 | 31 | 1.8 | 2.99 |
| Hammerson PLC | 518.5 | 8 | 1.6 | 6.18 |
| Shire PLC | 1990 | 28 | 1.4 | 5.46 |
| Resolution Ltd | 274.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 10.83 |
| Standard Life PLC | 350.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 5.51 |
| British Land Co PLC | 586 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 4.27 |
| Centrica PLC | 379.4 | 3 | 0.8 | 13.73 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Randgold Resources Ltd | 4958 | -237 | -4.6 | -16.67 |
| Croda International PLC | 2608 | -106 | -3.9 | 9.76 |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group SA | 243.6 | -7.8 | -3.1 | 31.82 |
| Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation PLC | 249.4 | -7.7 | -3 | -12.18 |
| CRH PLC | 1390 | -40 | -2.8 | 11.38 |
| Petrofac Ltd | 1400 | -38 | -2.6 | -13.74 |
| Glencore International PLC | 344.2 | -7.5 | -2.1 | -2.02 |
| BHP Billiton PLC | 1892.5 | -40.5 | -2.1 | -11.13 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,384.39 | -31.75 | -0.49 | 8.25 |
| UK | 13,906.80 | -61.28 | -0.44 | 12.38 |
| FR CAC 40 | 3,729.30 | -46.36 | -1.23 | 2.42 |
| DE DAX 30 | 7,744.77 | -126.86 | -1.61 | 1.74 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 14,865.00 | -0.04 | 0 | 13.44 |
| US Nasdaq Composite 100 | 3,294.95 | -5.21 | -0.16 | 9.12 |
| US S&P 500 | 1,588.85 | -4.52 | -0.28 | 11.41 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 13,275.66 | -209.48 | -1.55 | 27.71 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 21,804.29 | -293.12 | -1.29 | -3.76 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 4,967.90 | -45.64 | -0.91 | 6.86 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) | 89.115 | -1.545 | -1.7 | -2.91 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 101.335 | -0.34 | -0.33 | -8.93 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1451.75 | -24.35 | -1.65 | -13.36 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 24.4525 | -1.3075 | -5.08 | -19.41 |
| Platinum ($/oz) | 1462.75 | -20.75 | -1.4 | -5.26 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.532 | – | -0.13 | -5.67 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.3076 | – | -0.2 | -0.93 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.1717 | – | 0.08 | -4.86 |
Click graph to enlarge
See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations
UK 100 called to open -10pts, with weak Chinese growth data (GDP, Retail Sales, Industrial Production) further weighing on global risk sentiment and seeing Friday’s commodities sell-off continue. While the industrial metals and benchmark Oils (Brent + WTI) leaked as expected, the traditional safehaven Gold made new 2-year lows on broker bearishness, US growth optimism and outflows from Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
Risk appetite was already on the back foot after a weak close to the trading week in the US and Europe after disappointing data on US Retail Sales, Business inventories and Consumer Confidence as well as reigniting of Eurozone concerns (bailout structures, banking union).
China data overriding Ireland and Portugal being given more time to repay bailout money which themselves failed to dispel fears that another small but tough-stance bailout (Slovenia?) so soon after Cyprus could lead to contagion fears to the likes of Spain and Italy.
Other overnight macro data included an improvement in UK House Prices a rebound in Japanese Industrial Production in February and an improvement in the weak Machine Tool Orders.
In focus today will be Citigroup Q1 results, and whether it produces the similar revenues light but EPS beat that Wells Fargo and JPMorgan reported last week. Elsewhere, US Empire State Manufacturing seen dipping in April, although the nation’s NAHB Housing Index is expected to have nudged up.
Later in the week, watch out for results from Goldman Sachs on Tuesday, eBay and Tesco on Wednesday, and African Barrick Gold, Google and Microsoft on Thursday. Data-wise, listen out for UK and US data, given their prelim Q1 GDP updates next week. In Europe, Germany’s ZEW survey seen mixed again.
After recent bounce, UK 100 found resistance at 6,425 and traded back below 6,400. Multiple concerns on growth (China, US, Eurozone) may hold the index back in the short Support available at Cyprus mid-bailout lows of 6,340. Failure to capitalise on recent bounce leaves 3-month graph showing 2012 correction still in process, with falling highs allowing possible revisit of early-April multi-month lows of 6,215.
Gold took another leg down from its Friday weakness, although off its worst levels of $1425 (2-year lows). Having decisively broken 18-month lows of $1520 on Friday, this level could well revert to resistance on any rally attempt. Broker bearishness (optimistic on economic growth), uncertainty over duration of US Fed’s QE3 (again optimism on econ growth), ETF outflows and fears of Eurozone nations selling the metal to pay for bailouts all spooking markets.
In Oil, Brent Crude followed Gold lower, with a test of $101, while US Light Crude has broken below $90 to test $89 narrowing the spread on the two, which are both trading 1-month lows.
In FX, GBP/USD back around 1.53, off its best levels of 1.54 as the USD benefits from the safehaven of choice as Gold loses its shine. March rebound lost momentum? EUR/USD may also have lost momentum now trading back below 1.31 having hit 1.314 but we note some support around 1.305?
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