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Morning Report - 9 May 2017

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Intu Properties PLC 275.5 5.8 2.2 -2.1
Paddy Power Betfair PLC 8250 170.0 2.1 -6.0
easyJet PLC 1286 26.0 2.1 28.0
Centrica PLC 202.4 3.7 1.9 -13.5
Next PLC 4312 78.0 1.8 -13.5
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Anglo American PLC 1009.5 -21.0 -2.0 -13.0
Antofagasta PLC 753.5 -15.5 -2.0 11.6
Smiths Group PLC 1652 -32.0 -1.9 16.7
ConvaTec Group PLC 290.5 -5.5 -1.9 24.2
Mondi PLC 2008 -36.0 -1.8 20.5
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 7,300.9 3.4 0.05 2.2
UK 19,729.7 30.1 0.15 9.1
FR CAC 40 5,383.0 -49.5 -0.91 10.7
DE DAX 30 12,694.5 -22.4 -0.18 10.6
US DJ Industrial Average 30 21,012.3 5.3 0.02 6.3
US Nasdaq Composite 6,102.7 1.9 0.03 13.4
US S&P 500 2,399.4 0.1 0.00 7.2
JP Nikkei 225 19,878.3 -17.4 -0.09 4.0
HK Hang Seng Index 50 24,685.7 107.8 0.44 12.2
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,836.6 -34.3 -0.58 3.0
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 46.33 0.49 1.06 -5.9
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 49.26 0.65 1.34 -5.0
Gold ($/oz) 1226.95 -0.95 -0.08 -3.4
Silver ($/oz) 16.28 -0.01 -0.05 -5.5
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2950 0.00 0.07 0.0
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.0925 0.00 -0.02 0.3
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1853 0.00 0.10 -0.3
UK 100 called to open +5pts at 7300

UK 100 : 4-week; hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +5pts at 7305, futures having traded a tight 10pt range since yesterday afternoon. This may offer a clear trading opportunity when it breaks either higher up lower. Bulls are looking for a break above 7310 overnight channel highs; Bears want to see overnight channel lows and 24-rising support give way at 7300. Note potential 2-day falling highs and rising lows to represent a bullish pennant back towards 7400. Watch levels: Bullish 7310, Bearish 7300.

A tepid opening call comes after a flat US finish and Asian bourses under pressure overnight amidst an evaporation of the Macron relief rally. With that hurdle cleared, investors have already turned their attention to a roster of risk events over the next six weeks including UK and French elections, major central bank updates and an OPEC meeting. More Trump policy progress?

Note metals giving up more ground on a USD rebound and revived China concerns on the back of recently disappointing data. However, the VIX gauge of US market volatility also plumbed a two-decade suggesting low anxiety among investors who are merely awaiting the next catalyst to extend the long-term uptrend.

Japan’s Nikkei is in the red, failing to capitalise on additional Yen weakness - a product of USD, EUR and GBP strength - possibly hindered by Energy as oil takes a breather from its recent rally on Saudi assurances about an OPEC production cut extension. Australia’s ASX underperforms due to losses among Banks, Materials and Energy derived from results, metal price declines and Oil trading flat, respectively.

US bourses met Monday’s news of a Macron victory in France positively, albeit without much gusto, as two of the three major indices notched fresh intraday record highs. Both the Tech-focused Nasdaq Composite and blue-chip S&P 500 topped their previous bests during the session, with the former closing 2 points higher while the latter closed flat. The Dow Jones closed 5 points higher as Apple continued its recent impressive run of form, aided by Energy names Chevron and Exxon Mobil.

Crude Oil prices have failed to overcome falling highs resistance after a strong rally from Monday’s lows after the close of European markets. Continuing positive OPEC rhetoric regarding a production cut extension has sought to instil fresh optimism into benchmarks, however an unwillingness to overcome $49.50 (Brent) and $46.60 (US) resistance levels shows investors are hoping for more solid assurances than are currently being given by members and non-members alike.

Gold price remains largely unchanged following on from the French election result over the weekend, with the safe-haven asset remaining in its shallow downtrend. Currently trading at the lower end of its $1224-$1234 channel having failed to overcome May falling highs resistance, fresh US dollar strength could see a meaningful test of $1224 support take place during the course of the day.

In focus today will be continued digestion of centrist Macron’s French presidential win and how, without any legislative representation, he needs to convince members of the traditional Republican and Socialist parties, which he comprehensively trounced, to form a working majority in the National Assembly. His pick of PM is most likely to come from the right, unless he wants to take criticism for being Hollande 2.0 and merely maintaining a socialist path that accomplished little over the last 5 years.

Data-wise, this morning we expect US NFIB Small Business Optimism to continue to cool having hit its highest level since December 2004, whilst this afternoon US Wholesale Inventories are seen confirmed at -0.1%, JOLTS Job Openings showing a slight decline (jobs being filled) in March and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism climbing having fallen to a 5-month low in April.

With data thin on the ground, greater impetus may be placed on Fed speakers including March’s dovish dissenter Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis (2pm; MN High Tech Spring Conference in Minneapolis), Boston’s non-voter Eric Rosengren (6pm; keynote speaker at Risk Management for Commercial Real Estate Conference, NY) and centrist Robert Kaplan of Dallas (9:15pm; Dallas Regional Chamber Lower Middle Market Investment Summit).

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Bookmakers William Hill says made a positive start to 2017
  • William Hill says group net revenue for 17 – wks to April 25 up 9%
  • Hastings Investco sells 35m shares in Hastings – bookrunner
  • Grafton says more cautious about prospects for UK
  • Paysafe confirms FY 2017 guidance of low double – digit organic revenue growth
  • Micro Focus Intl says HPE's software revenue fell 10% in last quarter
  • After Brexit, underwriter Hiscox picks Luxembourg as EU base
  • Hiscox Q1 gross written premiums up
  • CMC Markets sees no changes for CFD clients after Bafin consultation
  • Goldman Sachs to now sell 2.5% of Dong Energy shares
  • Grid fees, nuclear maintenance hit E.ON's Q1 operating profit
  • Glencore agrees $84.97/T thermal coal price with Japan utilities – sources
  • Glencore puts Australian coking coal mine on block
  • Gold holds near 7 – week low as safe – haven demand fades
  • Oil gives up earlier gains as rising US output, China concerns weigh
  • London copper edges up after losses on worries over China demand

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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