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Morning Report - 8 March 2017

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Intertek Group PLC 3765 171.0 4.8 8.2
Sainsbury (J) PLC 263.6 3.4 1.3 5.7
Smiths Group PLC 1543 17.0 1.1 9.0
ConvaTec Group PLC 257.7 2.7 1.1 10.2
Croda International PLC 3597 37.0 1.0 12.6
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Paddy Power Betfair PLC 8270 -515.0 -5.9 -5.8
Standard Life PLC 384.9 -15.1 -3.8 3.5
Direct Line Insurance Group PLC 338.2 -10.2 -2.9 -8.5
Antofagasta PLC 781 -21.0 -2.6 15.7
Shire PLC 4903 -113.0 -2.3 4.7
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 7,339.0 -11.1 -0.15 2.8
UK 18,886.0 4.5 0.02 4.5
FR CAC 40 4,955.0 -17.2 -0.35 1.9
DE DAX 30 11,966.0 7.7 0.06 4.2
US DJ Industrial Average 30 20,924.8 -29.5 -0.14 5.9
US Nasdaq Composite 5,833.9 -15.2 -0.26 8.4
US S&P 500 2,368.4 -6.9 -0.29 5.8
JP Nikkei 225 19,254.0 -90.1 -0.47 0.7
HK Hang Seng Index 50 23,774.8 93.7 0.40 8.1
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,759.7 -1.7 -0.03 1.7
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 52.77 -0.51 -0.95 -2.3
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 55.58 -0.45 -0.8 -0.7
Gold ($/oz) 1217.45 1.35 0.11 -3.2
Silver ($/oz) 17.53 0.01 0.04 -4.4
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2205 0.00 0.01 -2.1
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.0567 0.00 -0.03 0.1
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1550 0.00 0.03 -2.2
UK 100 called to -10pts at 7330

UK 100 : 2-month; 4-hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -10pts at 7330, having broken below 7335 support to seal a breach of a trio of rising trend lines and extend the 4-day correction from 7397 record highs. Bulls hope for a bounce to challenge 7335, but note it has already offered resistance overnight. Bears require a test of 7312 overnight lows to open the door to 7300 and below. Watch levels: Bullish 7335, Bearish 7305.

Calls for a negative open come after yet another down day on Wall St that was emulated in Asia overnight. Dragging on sentiment is China trade data showing a plunge to its first deficit since early 2014 with markets cautious about how to interpret the key data points ahead of a potential Fed rate hike.

On the one hand China’s trade data bolsters belief in economic transition towards a more service oriented economy, a surge in imports helping serve higher domestic consumption. On the other hand, it may all be down to the commodity price rebound and pedestrian exports growth may cast doubt about the strength of global demand for what it produces.

Japan’s Nikkei is underperforming due to Telecoms and a Yen resilience despite a strong USD. Australia’s ASX flat as Healthcare suffers from Trump comments on pricing although Miners are offering some respite after the China data, meaning UK Index counterparts are worth watching at the London open.

UK Index sentiment may be impacted by corporate results. Legal & General reported higher 2016 profits, raised its dividend and management is confident with the outlook thanks to growth in core markets and rising market share. Echoing Direct Line yesterday, Admiral profits down 24% on changes to discount rates used to calculate personal injury damages awards; dividend held.

Wall Street saw its first consecutive run of negative sessions since January as all major indices finished Tuesday lower. The Dow Jones saw Chevron occupy the bottom spot, however it was Pharmaceutical weakness that helped incite market weakness as a President Trump tweet alluded to lower drugs prices during his tenure, which contributed to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq's underperformance.

Despite climbing to challenge 2-week falling highs resistance on Tuesday, Crude Oil prices have since fallen back sharply as US industry inventories data showed a build 10 times larger than expected. Breaking a 4-day uptrend, Brent Crude fell back to just above $55.50 while US Crude briefly dropped below $52.80 overnight. Investors will now be looking for this afternoon’s official US Government Inventories to confirm or dispel the industry data at 3:30pm.

Gold has taken another leg lower as the safe haven’s downtrend continues ahead of next week’s expected Fed rate hike. Having broken through $1219, the next major level of support for the precious metal lies marginally above $1180, a price not seen since late January. Should the US dollar breakout from 1-week falling highs resistance, the downtrend could accelerate as the price of holding Gold increases for investors.

In focus today will be Chancellor Philip Hammond’s first (and only) UK Spring Budget at 12:30pm before being replaced by its ‘Autumn statement’ counterpart. Noteworthy for being the last budget before Brexit negotiations begin, the Chancellor is expected to announce a bolstering of contingencies for Britain’s EU exit as government savings increase, however ‘spreadsheet Phil’ is unlikely to go on a spending spree, sticking instead to frugality for what could be tougher times ahead.

Data-wise, we are limited to a smattering of US releases, including ADP Employment Change which is viewed by many as a warm-up for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls jobs report. Consensus sees it falling back from January’s 6-month high, but remaining strong at 189K. Other releases include Non-Farm Productivity which is seen a touch higher, Unit Labour Costs are seen eking lower, while Wholesale Inventories expected to remain negative as Wholesale Trade Sales are forecast to sharply fall.

As always, DOE Weekly Oil Inventories will provide an added pinch of excitement for Crude Oil prices and an indication as to the level of US production as OPEC’s supply cuts continue.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Crude prices fall on likely U.S. stocks build
  • Admiral CFO says £60–70m Ogden hit still to take place
  • Admiral FY profit hit by cut in injury discount rate
  • UK recruiter PageGroup's profit up 11.7% on overseas growth
  • Global security firm G4S FY revenue rises 6.3%
  • UK's Restaurant Group to review leisure brands as 2016 comparable sales fall, says full – year revenue up 3.7%
  • UK estate agent Foxtons 2016 profit misses estimates, posts FY pretax profit of £18.8m
  • Legal & General posts $2bn 2016 operating profit, up 11%
  • Legal & General CFO says not planning large M&A deals
  • Inmarsat reports 9.5% rise in earnings, says outlook unclear
  • Hochschild Mining posts FY pretax profit
  • CMC Markets to partner Australia and New Zealand Banking Group
  • BHP Billiton hunts for oilfield stakes to cash in on market rebalance
  • Gold prices edge up, but U.S. rate hike outlook drags
  • London copper bounces from near five – week low, China data eyed

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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