Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +10pts at 7328, off overnight lows of 7305 but yet to overcome yesterday's 7335 breakdown nor this week's falling highs. Bulls need a break above 7350, to clear overnight highs and overcome the week’s downtrend. Bears require a breach of 7305 overnight lows. 7305-7340 range since mid-afternoon yesterday. Watch levels: Bullish 7345, Bearish 7305.

Calls for a positive open come in spite of negative trading on Wall St and in Asia, though the Dow was able to eke out slim gains. Concerns over Emerging Markets and the another US-China tariff clash are pushing traders towards risk-off sentiment into the weekend. Matter made worse by Trump training his sights on Japan as a potential next trade victim according to the WSJ.

Some of the UK Index positivity is derived from a slightly weaker GBP, after European leaders officially warned Britain that it will not be allowed to cherry-pick conditions for future UK relationship with the trade bloc, reversing the earlier Sterling rally on rumours of a Brexit breakthrough.

Oil is trading in negative territory as an aftereffect of yesterday’s significant build in gasoline (though unrefined crude saw a drawdown), suggesting that the driving season in the US was disappointing. Gold prices picked up some pace, edging over the $1200 line, amidst momentary USD weakness and a return of some safe haven demand.

In corporate news this morning IAG admits 21 Aug-5 Sept data breach of British Airways website and mobile app; personal/financial data stolen, but not travel/passport details.

AstraZeneca (and US partner Amgen) granted FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation for asthma drug Tezepelumab after Phase 2b PATHWAY study.

Ashmore FY adj. net management fees +13% YoY, adj. EBITDA  +14%, adj. pre-tax profit +3.4%, AUM +26%, net inflows +47%, flat dividend. Outlook positive, but strong 2018 inflows may not be repeated in near-term. Risk aversion to Emerging Markets challenging asset prices.

Greene King 18 week like-for-like sales +2.8% (branded local pubs +5.5%), ahead of a Pub market +1.2%; 10-week growth +3.2%, continuing positive summer momentum. Like-for-like Pub Partner profits -0.4% on higher overheads, seen balancing out by year-end with cost mitigation on-track.

EnQuest announces £107m rights issue (23% of market cap) to help fund $300m option to acquire remaining 75% of Magnus field and drill 2 wells; H1 production +45.9% YoY, revenues +86%, EBITDA +106.6%, pre-tax profit  +48%, cash generation +132.5%, reiterates FY guidance.

Amerisur Resources updates on production and exploration assets in Colombia before next week’s financial results. “After some delays, we look forward to a busy period of seismic and exploration drilling activity in the weeks and months ahead".

In focus today will be the US jobs report and much watched Non-Farm Payrolls (1.30pm). Note ADP missed expectations yesterday, falling to its lowest since last October. That said, and Average Hourly Earnings could remain the more influential figure, given its inflationary read across for the Fed. Consensus is looking for 190K NFP job adds in Aug, up from last month’s surprise drop to 157K, while Wages growth is expected a shade slower at +0.2% vs 0.3% prev.

Before that, UK  Halifax House Prices (8:30am) could impact UK Index Housebuilders along with the Bank of England’s (BoE) inflation attitudes survey for the next 12 months (9:30am), which could also move the banks. Eurozone GDP (10am) is confirmed slower in Q3 (2.2% vs 2.5% in Q2).

In terms of speakers, we have a few Fed members making public appearances, including Rosengren (1:30pm, hawkish, non-voter) and Mester (2pm, hawkish, voter), both participating at a panel in Boston, discussing consequences of low interest rates. Their colleague Kaplan (5:45pm, centrist, non-voter) speaks in the afternoon in Dallas on energy and the economy.

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