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Morning Report - 7 July 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Fresnillo PLC 2008 115.0 6.1 183.6
Randgold Resources Ltd 9715 405.0 4.4 134.5
Whitbread PLC 3452 47.0 1.4 -21.6
Glencore PLC 159.65 1.8 1.1 76.5
Shire PLC 4809 47.0 1.0 2.4
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Tesco PLC 161.6 -14.2 -8.1 8.1
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets PLC 172.4 -13.4 -7.2 16.3
Lloyds Banking Group PLC 47.55 -3.5 -6.8 -34.9
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 353.5 -25.0 -6.6 -42.1
Aviva PLC 352.5 -23.1 -6.2 -31.7
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,463.6 -81.8 -1.25 3.5
UK 15,669.7 -65.0 -0.41 -10.1
FR CAC 40 4,085.3 -78.1 -1.88 -11.9
DE DAX 30 9,373.3 -159.4 -1.67 -12.8
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,918.5 78.0 0.44 2.8
US Nasdaq Composite 4,859.2 36.3 0.75 -3.0
US S&P 500 2,099.7 11.2 0.54 2.7
JP Nikkei 225 15,265.1 -113.9 -0.74 -19.8
HK Hang Seng Index 50 20,666.3 171.0 0.83 -5.7
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,236.9 39.4 0.76 -1.1
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 47.60 1.24 2.66 28.4
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 48.94 1.35 2.84 30.1
Gold ($/oz) 1369.85 1.55 0.11 29.2
Silver ($/oz) 20.15 -0.09 -0.43 45.8
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.30 0.46 -11.9
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.11 -0.03 2.2
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.17 0.48 -13.8
UK 100 Index called to open +55pts at 6520

UK 100 : 7-day

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open +55pts at 6525, with a late recovery seeing it recover to trade above 6500 and hold 6520 support overnight. While yesterday's southerly foray to 6440 was a concern, the 100pt rebound (and the fact we held above the recent major breakout level) bodes well for Bulls hoping for a second leg higher after a brief pause. Bears point to falling highs and lower lows since Friday/Monday (downchannel) possibly sending us back to test 6400. Watch levels: Bullish 6545, Bearish 6510.

The positive opening call comes despite another weak session in Asia, although they are off their lows. This as the embers of Brexit concern glow as bright as ever and markets digest a dovish set of Fed minutes suggesting labour market concerns even in the run-up to a Brexit vote that was seen having global implications. S&P also cut Australia's credit outlook to negative due to the deadlock election and government policy implementation issues. Haven assets still very much in demand based on an uncertain outlook, but an oil price bounce is helping sentiment.

US stock markets closed with modest gains overnight after paring earlier losses on positive macro data and a bounce in the oil price. The FOMC minutes gave markets little more to chew on, since they related to a meeting that took place before the UK’s Brexit vote. Nonetheless, worries about inflation being too low are likely to lead thought concerning US monetary policy going forward and point towards a ‘lower for longer’ interest rate environment. This type of thing tends to be good for equity markets.

Crude price strength came after API data showed a bigger than expected 6.7m barrel drawdown in US stockpiles. Note analysts expect today’s more closely watched EIA print to show a 2.5m barrel draw. Will it confound like the API did?

Gold remains in a shallow uptrend while precious metals miners are still on a tear. Rising lows since 24 June are still supporting the yellow metal which continues to provide an alternative to volatile currencies and deflation. The gold miners, however, are shooting up so quickly it’s hard to see that trend continuing unabated.

In focus today: UK Halifax House Prices are seen showing slower growth in June which may in part be explained by a Brexit-inspired impact that would only add to the woes inflicted on the property sector after 7 UK property funds gated investors from requesting redemptions as it would require selling properties, thus contributing to a market slowdown.

UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production for May are seen slowing considerably in May, plunging in fact, even before Brexit, which may see analysts re-evaluate Q2 growth forecasts (and indeed those for Q3 and Q4) following the Brexit vote.

In the afternoon, with the US June Jobs report so close the warm up act of ADP will be looked for signs that an NFP rebound is on the cards tomorrow to assuage US economic slowdown fears, but note those dovish Fed minutes even in the run-up to the UK’s Brexit vote. Thereafter, with US API Oil Inventories showing a big drawdown last night, a similar result for EIA data could push oil prices higher.

On the slate for speakers today we have Eurogoup head of Finance Ministers Dijsselbloem around the European open followed by ECB minutes around midday. The ECB’s Villeroy and Constancio talk in the afternoon and any comments about the state of the region post Brexit could move markets.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Genel Energy Warns It Will Produce Less Oil Than Expected This Year
  • Whitbread Agrees Sale, Leaseback of Premier Inn Hotel in Kings Cross, London
  • Sports Direct Says Outlook Uncertain Post Brexit
  • Sports Direct Not Achieved Ebitda Target Set By 2015 Shr Scheme
  • Sports Direct Considering Shr Buyback To Reduce Shr Cap
  • Sports Direct: Mike Ashley Has No Intention Of Taking The Co Private
  • Sports Direct: says will not be paying a dividend
  • Bovis Homes Traded in Line with Management Views in First-Half
  • Great Portland Estates Says Uncertainty Negatively Impacts London
  • AB Foods Outlook For Fincl Yr Improved, No Longer Expects A Decline In Adjusted EPS
  • AB Foods Following Referendum, Sterling Weakened, Expects Bigger Translation Benefit In Final Qtr
  • AB Foods No Longer Sees Full-Yr Adjusted EPS Fall After Currency Boost
  • AB Foods Sales At Primark In The Yr To Date Were 7% Ahead Of Last Yr At Constant Currency
  • AB Foods Rev For The 40 Weeks Ended 18 June 3% Ahead At Actual Exchange Rates
  • AB Foods: Underlying Operating Performance In 3Q Was Ahead Of Expectation
  • Marks & Spencer 1Q UK Comparable Sales -4.3%; Backs FY17 Guidance
  • Marks & Spencer 1Q Comparable Clothing & Home Sales -8.9%
  • Marks & Spencer: Too Early To Quantify Implications Of Brexit
  • Asiamet Resources Limited Feasibility Studies Progressing To Plan
  • Rentokil: Sterling Weakness Will Positively Impact Earnings
  • Dunelm Sees FY16 Pretax Profit in Line with Management Expectations

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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