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| Yesterday’s UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Merlin Entertainments PLC | 4.894 | 0.3 | 5.8 | 9.1 |
| Mediclinic International PLC | 7.56 | 0.3 | 4.1 | -2.0 |
| Smurfit Kappa Group PLC | 22.79 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 21.0 |
| Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The) PLC | 2.612 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 16.3 |
| Diageo PLC | 25.03 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 18.6 |
| Yesterday’s UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Barratt Developments PLC | 5.89 | -0.3 | -4.7 | 27.4 |
| Persimmon PLC | 24.64 | -1.0 | -4.0 | 38.7 |
| Taylor Wimpey PLC | 1.879 | -0.1 | -3.7 | 22.4 |
| Fresnillo PLC | 14.57 | -0.5 | -3.5 | 19.3 |
| Hargreaves Lansdown PLC | 13.47 | -0.4 | -2.6 | 11.1 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 7,511.7 | 36.9 | 0.49 | 5.2 |
| UK | 19,969.7 | 61.5 | 0.31 | 10.5 |
| FR CAC 40 | 5,203.4 | 73.0 | 1.42 | 7.0 |
| DE DAX 30 | 12,297.7 | 143.0 | 1.18 | 7.1 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 22,092.8 | 66.8 | 0.30 | 11.8 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 6,351.6 | 11.2 | 0.18 | 18.0 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,476.8 | 4.7 | 0.19 | 10.6 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 20,055.9 | 103.6 | 0.52 | 4.9 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 27,685.8 | 123.1 | 0.45 | 25.8 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,773.6 | 53.0 | 0.93 | 1.9 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 49.42 | -0.02 | -0.03 | -8.3 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 52.24 | -0.19 | -0.35 | -8.2 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1263.75 | -0.55 | -0.04 | 9.7 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 16.24 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1.7 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.3053 | – | 0.12 | 5.7 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.1792 | – | 0.14 | 12.1 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.1070 | – | -0.03 | -5.7 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 Index called to open +20pts at 7530, extending Friday’s bullish flag and break beyond 2-month falling highs. Bulls need a break above 7538 overnight highs to open the door for a revisit of early June 7600 record highs. Bears, on the other hand, need a breach of 7515 July highs to allow for a retest of Friday’s 7490 breakout. Watch levels: Bullish 7540, Bearish 7515.
Calls for a positive start to the new week comes after Asian equities built on Friday’s Wall St jobs report inspired gains. The resulting stronger USD, however, is weighing on oil prices compounding August falling highs resistance ahead of an OPEC meeting in Abu Dhabi to discuss compliance of the production cut pact and despite the US Baker Hughes Rig count falling for a second time in three weeks.
Helping sentiment overnight was another Monday morning rally for iron ore prices, this time on fears of winter supply issues. This supported dual-listed UK Index /ASX Miners such as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto downunder, that helped Australia’s ASX outperform overnight and may flow into London trading this morning.
Japan’s Nikkei posts respectable gains (stronger than US on Friday) thanks to the auto sector welcoming a US JV between Toyota and Mazda. After Friday’s US Jobs report sent the USD sharply higher a weaker Yen is also helping, even if the greenback is off its best levels. The benefit of a weaker EUR has already waned for the German DAX, but still lurks for the GBP and UK UK Index .
UK Index corporate news this morning includes the Paddy Power Betfair CEO stepping down and the company expecting H1 revenues +9%, and underlying EBITDA +21%. Cairn Energy's SNE North-1 well results shows prospects. UK 100 names reporting this week include Standard Life, Prudential (both Tues), Legal & General (Weds) and Glencore (Thurs).
US markets closed higher after a goldilocks report that was strong enough to support more Fed interest rate hikes, but not strong enough to spark fear of the Fed tightening policy too quickly. The Dow closed above 22.1K, notching up an eighth day of gains as Banks outperformed (beneficiaries of from higher rates) and talk of tax reform.
Crude Oil prices are being hampered by August falling highs resistance, with US crude back below $50 and Brent below $52.5, as a strong USD and OPEC meeting weigh and despite another cooling for the US Baker Hughes Rig Count. Potential for a retrace towards $48.5/51.5.
Gold is back below $1260 after Friday’s jobs report bolstered acceptance of US policy normalisation and increased the relative cost of owning the zero-yielding metal. Equities powering higher also understandably reduced appetite for the safehaven. The metal needs to hold above $1255 if it is to avoid a bearish flag/pennant towards $1245.
In focus today, amid a rather light macro line-up, will be UK July Halifax House Prices (8.30am) to give us the latest assessment of the UK housing market. Can it reverse June’s 1% monthly drop? How has the annual pace of growth evolved? Faster or slower?
Thereafter, it’s slim picking with just Eurozone Sentix Investor Sentiment (9.30am), which recently stalled at 5yr highs. Pause or peaked? Last up is US Labour Market Conditions (3pm) which dropped sharply in June to a 2017 and 6-month low. Rebound or remain under pressure?
Fed speakers this afternoon include the dovish James Bullard (4.45pm) just after the European close and uber-dove Neel Kashkari (6.25pm) to kick off the evening trading session.
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