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Morning Report - 6 May 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
BT 451.05 11.6 2.6 -4.4
Pearson 805 20.5 2.6 9.4
Next 5280 130.0 2.5 -27.6
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets 192 4.5 2.4 29.6
RSA Insurance 478.8 9.3 2.0 12.3
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Centrica 208.5 -22.6 -9.8 -4.4
Inmarsat 863 -67.0 -7.2 -24.1
Sage Group 582 -22.0 -3.6 -3.6
Smith & Nephew 1132 -32.0 -2.8 -6.3
Royal Bank of Scotland 213.2 -6.0 -2.7 -29.4
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,117.3 5.2 0.09 -2.0
UK 16,661.7 2.3 0.01 -4.4
FR CAC 40 4,319.5 -4.8 -0.11 -6.9
DE DAX 30 9,851.9 23.6 0.24 -8.3
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,660.8 9.5 0.05 1.4
US Nasdaq Composite 4,717.1 -8.6 -0.18 -5.8
US S&P 500 2,050.6 -0.5 -0.02 0.3
JP Nikkei 225 16,103.3 -44.1 -0.27 -15.4
HK Hang Seng Index 50 20,174.7 -275.1 -1.35 -7.9
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,288.1 9.1 0.17 -0.1
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 43.86 -1.14 -2.53 18.3
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 44.62 -1.07 -2.34 18.7
Gold ($/oz) 1278.65 -0.65 -0.05 20.6
Silver ($/oz) 17.33 -0.10 -0.55 25.4
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.45 -0.11 -1.8
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.14 0.03 5.0
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.27 -0.12 -6.4
UK 100 called to open -20pts at 6095

UK 100 Index - 3-months

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open -20pts at 6095, still struggling to get off 6100 as the downtrend since late April prevents the longer-term uptrend from resuming. Bears eyeing a proper breach of 6100 to revisit the floor of the Mar/April sideways channel to erase all of April’s gains. Bulls likely need a break above 6150 before getting excited about a rebound and recovery. Watch levels: Bullish 6160, Bearish 6085.

The call for a negative open comes as Asian stocks sink to a four-week low with Japanese equities - back from a 3-day holiday - failing to benefit from a weaker Yen. The US jobs report is serving to keep risk appetite in check with the result potentially re-shaping expectations for US monetary policy in terms of a June rate hike or further delay. A stronger USD and an oil price drop are also hampering the commodity space.

Chinese stocks underperforming as growth, credit bubble and intervention fears grow. Australia’s ASX posting gains on account of a weaker AUD after the RBA cut its inflation expectations which spurred hopes of further rate cuts following this week’s surprise. This is offsetting the effect of weaker commodity prices on its mining contingent.

US markets were largely unchanged on Thursday with the traditional lull ahead of the US jobs report, which is due out at 13:30 today. The randomness of Non-Farms essentially makes it a gambling tool. It’s the average people are really interested in when it comes to things like Fed rate hikes and that’s been fairly constant over the past 7 or 8 months, so expect little today save less than a minute’s worth of market volatility.

Crude prices settled back from yesterday’s intraday highs having rallied strongly due to wildfires threatening to burn Canada’s oil sands (or maybe just disrupt production…), not to mention an ongoing war involving bandits in Libya - a country whose oil industry can hardly be thought of as one of the world’s most efficient right now.

Gold is set for its biggest weekly fall in 6, pressured by a rebound in the USD which recently hit 15.5 month lows. The fact the US currency and fellow safe haven has seen inflows suggests much of the strength in Gold this year has come from speculation rather than safe-haven seeking, since the yellow metal has been more or less following equity markets higher.

In focus today, will be the US Jobs report and whether it delivers enough progress to generate fears of a rate hike in June or whether it is soft enough to maintain expectations that the Fed will struggle to raise rates even once this year.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Rio Tinto approves $5.3 bln Oyu Tolgoi copper expansion in Mongolia
  • Britain to launch power capacity market one year early in winter 2017/18
  • UK insurer Hastings Q1 gross written premiums jump 29 pct
  • Hastings says on track to meet or beat targets set at IPO
  • InterContinental Hotels confident on full – year outlook
  • IHG Q1 revpar up 1.5 pct, confident outlook
  • BBA Aviation says trading in line with expectations
  • Tullett Prebon appoints Andrew Baddeley as Chief Financial Officer
  • 88 Energy – Seismic and Acreage Award Update
  • Interserve hit by Glasgow energy – from – waste contract problems
  • Oxford Biomedica presents lentivector gene therapy data
  • AB InBev launches a noteholder consent solicitation process
  • easyJet passenger numbers rise 6.1 pct in April
  • London copper set for largest weekly loss in 15 months

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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