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Morning Report - 6 June 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Fresnillo 1123 79.0 7.6 58.6
Randgold Resources 6250 400.0 6.8 50.9
Glencore 135.65 7.1 5.5 49.9
Anglo American 617.9 30.4 5.2 106.3
Merlin Entertainments 434.5 15.2 3.6 -4.6
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Tesco 162 -7.5 -4.4 8.4
Sainsbury (J) 246.2 -10.7 -4.2 -4.9
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets 188.9 -7.5 -3.8 27.5
Standard Life 327.2 -6.4 -1.9 -16.0
Johnson Matthey 2942 -53.0 -1.8 4.6
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,209.6 24.0 0.39 -0.5
UK 17,068.0 -8.4 -0.05 -2.1
FR CAC 40 4,421.8 -44.2 -0.99 -4.6
DE DAX 30 10,103.3 -104.7 -1.03 -6.0
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,807.0 -31.5 -0.18 2.2
US Nasdaq Composite 4,942.5 -28.8 -0.58 -1.3
US S&P 500 2,099.1 -6.1 -0.29 2.7
JP Nikkei 225 16,572.1 -70.1 -0.42 -12.9
HK Hang Seng Index 50 20,902.2 -45.0 -0.21 -4.6
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,360.4 41.5 0.78 1.2
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 49.00 0.36 0.73 32.2
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 49.95 0.39 0.79 32.9
Gold ($/oz) 1243.45 -3.05 -0.24 17.3
Silver ($/oz) 16.42 -0.02 -0.11 18.8
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.44 -0.93 -2.4
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.13 -0.2 4.4
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.27 -0.72 -6.6
UK 100 called top open +25pts at 6235

UK 100 : 1-week chart

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open +25pts at 6235 with another attempt falling short of 6250 overnight and the index remaining under the resistance cloud of 1-week falling highs. The Bulls are hopeful for continuation of the trend of rising lows since Friday’s worst levels. The bears be hoping for a retrace to Friday’s lows and maybe even all the way back to May lows. Watch levels: Bullish 6255, Bearish 6215.

The positive opening call comes despite a mixed session in Asia with Japan’s Nikkei weighed by a Yen strength hurting exporters after the US dollar sank on revised US rate rise expectations in the wake of Friday’s US Jobs report. Chinese equities also hurting from a currency standpoint. On the flip side, Australia’s ASX is higher, with miners and energy benefiting from a weak US dollar giving a fillip to the commodities space. Note UK Index optimism in spite of continued intensifying of the UK's EU referendum debate as the 23 June vote date looms.

US bourses did of course close Friday’s session in the red, although they did manage to pare some of those post-NFP losses. Fed speakers were quick to react with Brainard representing the doves - it would appear with good ammunition - and Mester quite rightly pointing to the anomalousness of the number. It was, after all, just one number.

Now that’s out of the way though, we should expect little in the way of a recovery bounce with Brexit still looming large after another poll saw sentiment pushed even further towards a ‘Leave’ mentality - this time it’s Telegraph readers (a Eurosceptic paper). We thus start the week on a shaky footing. Beware!

Note Brent Crude has dipped back below $50 after the Baker Hughes Rig Count posted the biggest weekly gain since Dec 2015, while WTI is comfortably below the ‘psyche’ level so far in June, both despite a significantly weakened USD. We also continue to digest the fallout from OPEC's semi-annual meeting  last week where the only agreement was to agree on nothing

Gold and other metals benefitted nicely after the USD Basket undid all the good work it had put in through the second half of May. After such a strong dollar move, it’d be reasonable to expect a correction upwards this morning and thus the opposite for Gold, but with the likelihood of a summer US rate hike diminishing almost as fast as the likelihood of the UK still being an EU member by the end of the month, fundamentals are in Gold’s favour.

In focus today will no doubt be continued digestion of that surprisingly weak (an aberration) US Jobs report we saw on Friday and what it means for the US Federal Reserve’s ability to raise stateside interest rates the summer. In fact, it is highly likely that Fed Chair Janet Yellen had to cancel any plans she had for a relaxing weekend in order to re-write the speech she is slated to give this evening needing to include some more dovish hints.

Data-wise we have a relatively quiet line-up, although the Germans did start things on a down note with a weak Factory Orders note for April. The Fed’s Mester speaks at the European open, although she will be outnumbered by ECB counterparts throughout the day. Thereafter Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence is forecast to have risen in June and this afternoon’s US Labour Market Conditions survey is sure to garner much attention following that disappointing US Jobs print as markets await the latest thinking from Fed Chair Janet Yellen this evening.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

 

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • EasyJet Flew 71.5M Passengers in Year Ended May, Up 7.3% From Last Year
  • easyJet passenger numbers rise 5.7 pct in May
  • Vodafone Extends Partner Market Pact With Afrimax To Zambia
  • Randgold Resources Ld Kibali shows mining can help make a better Africa
  • PZ Cussons: Caroline Silver will Succeed Richard Harvey as Chairman
  • Shell expects no impact on offshore assets from tropical storm Colin
  • UK pension fund forum asks members to oppose WPP pay report
  • Sportech updates on VAT repayment claim

 


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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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