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Morning Report - 31 March 2015

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Antofagasta PLC 739.5 24.5 3.4 -1.7
Ashtead Group PLC 1101 31.0 2.9 -4.4
London Stock Exchange Group PLC 2476 63.0 2.6 11.5
ARM Holdings PLC 1106 27.0 2.5 11.2
Coca-Cola HBC AG 1220 24.0 2.0 -0.7
Kingfisher PLC 364.8 7.0 2.0 7.1
RSA Insurance Group PLC 430.5 7.3 1.7 -1.0
Reed Elsevier PLC 1181 19.0 1.6 7.4
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Smiths Group PLC 1129 -33.0 -2.8 2.8
BG Group PLC 852 -21.3 -2.4 -1.5
Barratt Developments PLC 526 -10.0 -1.9 11.7
Capita PLC 1123 -18.0 -1.6 3.9
BT Group PLC 448.25 -5.8 -1.3 11.6
Persimmon PLC 1647 -20.0 -1.2 4.4
Imperial Tobacco Group PLC 3068 -34.0 -1.1 8.2
Babcock International Group PLC 963 -10.5 -1.1 -9.0
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,891.4 36.4 0.53 5.0
UK 17,208.0 45.5 0.26 7.0
FR CAC 40 5,083.5 49.5 0.98 19.0
DE DAX 30 12,086.0 217.7 1.83 23.3
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,976.3 263.6 1.49 0.9
US Nasdaq Composite 100 4,947.4 56.2 1.15 4.5
US S&P 500 2,086.2 25.2 1.22 1.3
JP Nikkei 225 19,396.1 110.4 0.57 11.1
HK Hang Seng Index 48 24,905.0 418.8 1.71 5.5
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,846.1 -73.8 -1.25 8.0
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 48.11 -0.49 -1.01 -9.5
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 55.84 0.36 0.65 -3.6
Gold ($/oz) 1183.85 -2.05 -0.17 0.2
Silver ($/oz) 16.56 -0.16 -0.94 6.6
Platinum ($/oz) 1119.85 0.25 0.02 -7.4
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.478 -0.2 -4.9
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.079 -0.35 -10.5
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.369 0.14 6.2
UK 100 called to open flat at 6887

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 08:55                     Germany             Employment Data
  • 09:30                     UK                          GDP
  • 10:00                     Eurozone             Unemployment rate, CPI
  • 14:45                     USA                       Chicago PMI
  • 15:00                     USA                       Consumer Confidence Index

 

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open flat at 6887 after Monday afternoon’s Wall St. inspired break out of a bearish flag pattern with futures trading beneath resistance around 6915 this morning. Watch levels: Bullish 6975, Bearish 6835.

The flat open comes after the index pulled out of 4 days of volatile losses with UK consumer confidence data overnight coming in at its highest level since Sept 2002. Although The UK economy is on the brink of deflation, BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent has hammered home the message that falling prices can actually boost demand and output by lifting real incomes and facilitating debt repayments. Have the markets taken his words on board?

Despite the flatish open, UK 100 is this week poised for its biggest quarterly gain in two years. Kingfisher Plc was up 2% after reporting the breakdown of merger talks with France’s third-largest home-improvement chain, with election-based concerns put to bed as a result. In Europe, Greek PM Tsipras appealed for an "honest compromise" with lenders but warned that Greece would not agree to an "unconditional" one. Major creditor Germany demanded it do more to show commitment to reform, indicating frustration at a lack of detail in Greece’s reform proposals. Meanwhile, the ECB reported that a further €14.7B of government bond purchases were made last week as part of their QE programme, taking the total to date to €41B.

US stocks showed a strong move back to the upside on Monday, partly due to bargain hunting following last week's pullback while the dollar gained ahead of Friday's jobs report. Oil prices settled lower amid signs that the US supplies are still growing. The Fed’s Fischer talked of Financial stability, suggesting that non-bank credit providers (responsible for 2/3 of lending in the US) are vulnerable to excessive risk taking and should be regulated just like their banking sector peers.

Asian Bourses are doing well this morning, supported by optimism after China was seen to be taking steps to re-invigorate its economy by bolstering the real estate market. Buyers of second homes would be required to make a minimum down payment of 40%, down from the previous 60%, as part of efforts to encourage upgraders to go for it. It is a sign that policy makers are becoming more anxious about the slowdown – and consequently a sign that they will start taking action to sort it out.

In focus today we have German and Eurozone employment data, while in the US later on will be the Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence Index.

US Light Crude ($48) is still struggling to maintain its uptrend from March 17 lows having emerged flat from the weekend and posted losses yesterday as the deadline looms for talks with Iran on its nuclear programme. Traders worry that a deal would ease sanctions and the country would flood the already oversupplied market with more crude oil. American inventories are so high now that Saudi Arabia’s crown as the world’s top oil producer is coming under threat from the US. A similar story for the UK benchmark, Brent ($55), also trading sideways into this week on global supply glut worries with Middle East uncertainties failing to bolster the price. But do they ever really do that?

Gold ($1180) is back in a down trend this morning as the US Dollar basket strengthens once again. The release of better-than-expected data in the world’s ‘role model’ economy overnight helped to buoy the dollar, weighing on the yellow metal which is priced in the currency. Global unease again failing to support the safe haven commodity.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

Key Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • UK                          GFK Consumer Confidence         Beat, Improved
  • Aussie                   Private Sector Credit MoM          Hit, Decreased
  • Aussie                   Private Sector Credit YoY              Missed, Unchanged
  • Japan                    Construction Orders                       Collapsed

 

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Gulf Keystone Petroleum raises $40.7M through placing
  • Gulf Keystone Petroleum says Andrew Simon to become non–executive chairman
  • e–Therapeutics plc Announces Full Year Results
  • Amec foster wheeler awarded 9–year contract with EDF
  • Churchill Mining says half-year loss of $1.1M
  • Regulator grants Lloyds permission to redeem series of ECNs
  • Kingfisher to close 60 B&Q stores in Britain
  • Mitie sees full-year operating profit slightly below expectations
  • Chesnara IFRS pretax profit falls 52%


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