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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group SA | 438 | 24.5 | 5.9 | -28.3 |
| Sainsbury (J) PLC | 254 | 10.0 | 4.1 | -1.9 |
| Barratt Developments PLC | 456.7 | 17.8 | 4.1 | -27.0 |
| Next PLC | 4974 | 168.0 | 3.5 | -31.8 |
| easyJet PLC | 952.5 | 31.5 | 3.4 | -45.3 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Shire PLC | 4781.5 | -168.5 | -3.4 | 1.8 |
| Intu Properties PLC | 276 | -5.4 | -1.9 | -13.0 |
| Prudential PLC | 1369 | -26.5 | -1.9 | -10.6 |
| Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC | 1780 | -32.0 | -1.8 | -22.6 |
| Admiral Group PLC | 1898 | -27.0 | -1.4 | 14.4 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,996.3 | 9.7 | 0.14 | 12.1 |
| UK | 17,644.8 | 63.5 | 0.36 | 1.2 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,548.6 | 15.0 | 0.33 | -1.9 |
| DE DAX 30 | 10,696.2 | -20.9 | -0.19 | -0.4 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 18,161.3 | -8.5 | -0.05 | 4.2 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 5,190.1 | -25.9 | -0.50 | 3.7 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,126.4 | -6.6 | -0.31 | 4.0 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 17,425.0 | -21.4 | -0.12 | -8.5 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 22,984.0 | 29.2 | 0.13 | 4.9 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,317.7 | 33.9 | 0.64 | 0.4 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 48.44 | -1.04 | -2.09 | 30.7 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 50.46 | 0.23 | 0.45 | 34.2 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1276.55 | 0.55 | 0.04 | 20.4 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 17.86 | 0.10 | 0.56 | 29.2 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.22 | – | -0.08 | -17.3 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.10 | – | -0.21 | 0.9 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.11 | – | 0.14 | -18.1 |
UK 100 Index called to open -20pts at 6975, starting last session of the month on the back foot. It is, however, well off overnight lows which maintains the trend of rising support since last Thursday’s bounce from a close shave with 6900. On the flip-side, falling highs from 10 Oct remain a hindrance just above 7000. Bulls will look for this hurdle to be cleared, while Bears watch for any new signs of weakness and potential to revisit 6900. Watch levels: Bullish 6990, Bearish 6965.
Calls for a down day come after a negative US close and a in spite of a pretty buoyant Asian start to the new week. With some major GDP data now under the bridge, investors are looking to the next best thing with market moving potential: central bank policy updates, and of course a US election just days away and the pantomime storyline taking another twist over the weekend (“the scandal's behind you! Oh no it isn’t”).
Japan’s Nikkei is below water in spite of fresh Yen weakness with weak Industrial Production and Retail Sales data denting sentiment and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) starting its policy meeting. Yen weakness is derived from a USD Basket recovering from Friday’s lows thanks to strong US GDP and in spite of Clinton’s lead narrowing over the weekend on fresh FBI email investigation concerns.
Australia’s ASX is higher despite the stronger USD as commodities prices continue to ignore the currency hindrance. Iron ore, Nickel and Zinc are still tracking higher while the two benchmark Oil prices finding support around $48/$50, even as Iraq objects to production cuts ahead of the OPEC meeting at the end of the month.
US equity markets closed lower on Friday after a late afternoon sell off brought about by the FBI’s surprise reopening of the Clinton email investigation. Dow Jones Futures pared gains made over the course of the day on the news, eventually finishing the week’s final trading session virtually flat having recovered from the lows reached immediately after the announcement. Elsewhere the S&P 500 closed lower by 0.3%, whilst the Nasdaq also finished in negative territory, down 0.5%.
Crude oil prices are showing a slight technical rebound this morning from falling lows support levels, however remain towards the lower end of downtrends that have lasted the majority of October. Talks over the weekend between OPEC and non-OPEC producers failed to renew confidence that a production cut deal will be successfully negotiated by the next official meeting in Vienna on November 30 as Iran and Iraq once again threw a spanner in the works while the non-OPEC members failed to pledge any meaningful cuts to output.
Gold price, having rallied $15 on news of the FBI’s reopening of their investigation into Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, is now back trading within the boundaries of its 3-week October uptrend. With a raft of central bank monetary policy updates this week, expect the increased volatility in the safe haven asset to provide a series of price swings as the BoJ, US Fed and BoE all meet.
Today’s main event, alongside the latest twist in the US election pantomime, will likely be Eurozone CPI inflation and GDP growth figures. Preliminary expectations are for inflation to have accelerated in October, as components suggested on Friday, although the core measure may merely hold firm. GDP is however seen unchanged.
UK Mortgage Approvals and Borrowing can be looked to for evidence about the health of the UK housing market.
In the afternoon, hot on the heels of stronger than expected GDP growth data, US Personal Income and Spending growth is seen supportive of this with a healthy jump in September. Headline PCE Deflator figures are seen playing in favour of an optimistic Fed view on inflation, even if core provides a more mixed picture.
Thereafter, Chicago PMI is seen unchanged in October and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity index bouncing positive for the first time in 21 months.
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