This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.
| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC | 2407 | 86.0 | 3.7 | 21.6 |
| British American Tobacco PLC | 3680.5 | 129.0 | 3.6 | 5.2 |
| GlaxoSmithKline PLC | 1374.5 | 46.0 | 3.5 | -0.1 |
| Fresnillo PLC | 646 | 16.0 | 2.5 | -15.7 |
| RELX PLC | 1101 | 27.0 | 2.5 | 0.1 |
| Imperial Tobacco Group PLC | 3365 | 79.0 | 2.4 | 18.7 |
| Vodafone Group PLC | 240.95 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 8.2 |
| ITV PLC | 276.2 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 28.4 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Compass Group PLC | 1028 | -58.0 | -5.3 | -6.6 |
| Smiths Group PLC | 1123 | -17.0 | -1.5 | 2.3 |
| Capita PLC | 1271 | -15.0 | -1.2 | 17.6 |
| Sage Group (The) PLC | 514.5 | -5.5 | -1.1 | 10.5 |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group SA | 551 | -5.0 | -0.9 | 13.4 |
| Rolls-Royce Group PLC | 730.5 | -4.5 | -0.6 | -16.0 |
| Admiral Group PLC | 1491 | -5.0 | -0.3 | 12.8 |
| Prudential PLC | 1501.5 | -5.0 | -0.3 | 0.6 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,631.0 | 75.7 | 1.16 | 1.0 |
| UK | 17,512.8 | 124.9 | 0.72 | 8.9 |
| FR CAC 40 | 5,017.4 | 40.1 | 0.81 | 17.4 |
| DE DAX 30 | 11,211.8 | 37.9 | 0.34 | 14.3 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 17,751.4 | 121.1 | 0.69 | -0.4 |
| US Nasdaq Composite 100 | 5,111.7 | 22.5 | 0.44 | 7.9 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,108.6 | 15.3 | 0.73 | 2.4 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 20,521.6 | 218.7 | 1.08 | 17.6 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 24,653.3 | 33.8 | 0.14 | 4.4 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,672.2 | 48.0 | 0.85 | 4.8 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) | 48.81 | -0.10 | -0.19 | -9.1 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 53.54 | -0.62 | -1.14 | -7.0 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1092.20 | -4.20 | -0.38 | -7.7 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 14.74 | -0.08 | -0.51 | -6.0 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.560 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.2 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.098 | 0.00 | -0.03 | -9.3 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.421 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 10.4 |
UK 100 Index called to open +20pts at 6650 with the rebound from 6500 lows having broken above 1-week falling highs and retraced 50% of the declines from 6815 early last week. Trendline of rising lows offers support around 6630 while test of 6650 as we write bodes well for recovery towards 6815 July highs. Updated watch levels: Bullish 6660, Bearish 6625.
The positive opening call comes as Asian stocks follow their US counterparts higher - extending their bounce - after the US Federal Reserve said it was closer to a rate hike this year thanks to an improving labour market, keeping the door open for a September hike even if inflation remains sub-target and additional data points or external factors (Greece, China) could see it hold off until year-end.
A bounce by oil on higher US inventories and potential Saudi production cuts is also helping along with a stronger USD Index (set for biggest monthly gain since March) following the Fed update and better than expected earnings reports (Facebook, Hitachi, NTT Docomo), although Samsung did miss forecasts on disappointing Galaxy sales.
US stocks closed higher for a second day helped by the positive economic assessment by the Fed, the bounce in the oil price and on the whole decent earnings reports.
Japan’s Nikkei higher thanks to weaker JPY and industrial production data beating expectations. Australia’s ASX higher, led by miners and commodity price strength and despite Building Approvals plunging, with the data cooling fears of an overheated property market. Note Chinese bourses mixed as intervention continues to prop up a burst equity bubble.
While things might seem quiet on the Greek front, with final bailout negotiations only just getting started, note PM Tsipras facing new challenges from Syriza hardliners over the third bailout which could see him lose parliamentary majority although he vows not to be blackmailed. A tech glitch has also resulted in the Athens stock exchange remaining closed through next week.
In focus today – German Unemployment at 8.55am Eurozone Confidence and Business Climate indicators at 10am, German Consumer Price Inflation at 1pm and then US jobless claims and GDP updates at 1.30pm. Results from a plethora of US corporates including Amgen (AMGN), Colgate Palmolive (COL), Fiat-Chrysler (FCAU), P&G (PG) and Marriot International.
Oil saw renewed strength yesterday which could trim is biggest monthly loss this year following an unexpected drawdown in US stockpiles and reports that Saudi Arabic will reduce production which gave renewed hope of a rebalancing of the global supply/demand dynamic. Note US Light Crude broke >$48 to test $49.5 while Brent broke >$53.7 to test $54.5.
Gold looks set for its worst month since 2013 with the Fed outlook and resulting stronger USD (albeit with a 12hr delay) seeing it fall back to test $1085 having been sideways around $1095 for 3 days. Are we headed back to recent 5.5yr lows of $1077? Safehaven far from safe?
For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.
This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research