Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open +15pts at 6715, helped by a calming of geopolitical tensions with Moscow giving assurances to Washington that it will not invade Ukraine and reports that Russian troops had left the Ukrainian border and returned to their base.

This helped US equities rebound strongly late in the day with the S&P erasing an earlier slide as a sell-off in Internet and smaller companies abated amid optimism over M&A activity. The rebound in futures has continued overnight and we note UKX futures holding above 6700 since the US close.

On the topic of the ECB and potential QE, President Draghi said it is not imminent and sees low inflation in the Eurozone as the problem rather than deflation. This morning we note the German GFK Consumer confidence survey in-line and stable at 8.5, and lots of Eurozone/German data out later (confidence, inflation).

In Asia overnight, Japan’s Nikkei is closed for holiday but Australia’s ASX has reversed from a fresh 6-year high to go negative, held back by the miners after the spot price of iron ore fell 2.2% and the banks after broker downgrades following sector outperformance and concern ahead of results.

Just as Eastern European geopolitics calm be aware of North Korea setting areas for firing drills teasingly close to the disputed sea border with South Korea.

Samsung Electronics Q1 profits beat estimates as demand rose for cheaper Galaxy devices and the soccer World Cup boosted TV sales. Strong chip sales helped cushion slowing sales at its key mobile unit amid increasing competition from low-cost rivals.

Q1 profits from Deutsche Bank look better than expected thanks to a more resilient performance in fixed income (-10% YoY v -22% est). Revenues missed, however, and the bank plans to raise €1.5bn via contingent convertible bonds (bonds which can be swapped for equity if the bank’s capital ratios fall too low). Samsung

BP results show a drop in Q1 ‘underlying replacement cost profit’ to $3.2bn from $4.2bn, which nonetheless beat consensus of $3.1bn. It also said it would raise its quarterly dividend to 9.75c, +8.3% YoY.

In focus today we have advance UK GDP at 9.30am with expectations for an acceleration in the pace of growth to 0.9% QoQ from 0.7% in Q4, and for the YoY rate to rise to 3.2% from 2.7%, the Index of Services is seen +0.3% in the quarter.

Eurozone Confidences Surveys are expected to show slight improvements across the board (Economic Confidence seen at 102.9 v 102.4 prev) , however, in contrast to the German Consumer Confidence print this morning, and Draghi’s comments yesterday, German CPI is seen negative (-0.1% v 0.3%; deflation) in April even if the annual rate accelerated. The ECB’s deflationary headache will not ease.

In the afternoon, we have US S&P/Case Shiller House Price data seen rising a little more slowly in February (0.7% v 0.85% prev) and US Consumer Confidence rising to 83.2 from 82.3. We note data much stronger than expected yesterday with both US pending Home Sales and the Dallas fed Manufacturing Index beating consensus in terms of improvements.

Several US companies reporting Q1 results today including Goodyear, BMS, Merck, eBay and Marriot, the latter two after the US close.

Gold is back below the $1300 given the progress made in the Ukraine and on expectations that the upcoming Fed meeting (weds) will see monetary stimulus reduced further, although it only fell as low as $1292 and only got as high as $1306 and so any hint of new/revived concerns could just as easily see it pop back above the round number.

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Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

• GFK      Consumer Confidence             In-line, stable

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

• Bodycote three-month revenue up 2.8 pct
• Redrow 17-week reservations rise 17 percent
• Fastjet restrucutres Fly 540 Angola, Ghana
• Foxtons first quarter core earnings jump 44 percent
• Segro sees investor demand for sheds strengthening
• UBM Q1 revenue falls to 163 mln stg
• BP Q1 profit slightly ahead of forecasts, raises dividend
• British Land sells two retail parks for 78 mln stg
• Aquarius Platinum Q3 mine EBITDA rises
• British American Tobacco outlines cost of EU compliance
• Russia's Petropavlovsk posts 2013 net loss due to write-offs