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Morning Report - 29 November 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Randgold Resources Ltd 5965 245.0 4.3 44.0
Fresnillo PLC 1278 46.0 3.7 80.5
Polymetal International PLC 769.5 24.0 3.2 31.7
Centrica PLC 209.4 5.3 2.6 -4.0
SSE PLC 1495 31.0 2.1 -2.2
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Next PLC 4820 -131.0 -2.7 -33.9
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The) PLC 196.2 -5.3 -2.6 -35.0
BT Group PLC 350.3 -8.6 -2.4 -25.7
Sky PLC 769 -18.0 -2.3 -30.9
CRH PLC 2658 -53.0 -2.0 34.9
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,799.5 -41.3 -0.60 8.9
UK 17,518.3 -85.1 -0.48 0.5
FR CAC 40 4,510.4 -39.9 -0.88 -2.7
DE DAX 30 10,582.7 -116.6 -1.09 -1.5
US DJ Industrial Average 30 19,098.0 -54.3 -0.28 9.6
US Nasdaq Composite 5,368.8 -30.1 -0.56 7.2
US S&P 500 2,201.7 -11.6 -0.53 7.7
JP Nikkei 225 18,307.0 -49.9 -0.27 -3.8
HK Hang Seng Index 50 22,775.5 -55.1 -0.24 3.9
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,457.5 -6.9 -0.13 3.1
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 46.70 -0.48 -1.01 26.0
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 47.82 -0.56 -1.15 27.2
Gold ($/oz) 1191.10 -3.20 -0.27 12.3
Silver ($/oz) 16.60 -0.06 -0.35 20.1
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2414 0.0067 0.04 -15.7
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.0609 0.0022 -0.09 -2.3
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1702 0.0040 0.14 -13.8
UK 100 called to open -5pts at 6795

UK 100 : 2-week, hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -5pts at 6795, trying to hold on to yesterday’s bounce but still under significant pressure from the breach of 2-week rising lows at 6800. Even a teasing rally beyond 24hr falling highs at 6790 as we write has failed, adding to the overnight inability to better 6800. Bulls need a break above prior rising support at 6810 before getting excited while Bears require a breach of 24hr rising support at 6790. Watch levels: Bullish 6820, Bearish 6790.

A flat European open comes after a negative US close (peaked?) and another largely negative session in Asia as event risk looms large. Only China is in the green, regional caution very much in vogue ahead of tomorrow’s OPEC meeting and with Sunday’s Italian referendum and Austrian election offering a political risk combo that could add fuel to the Brexit and Trump anti-establishment populist fire.

A USD Dollar off its highs continues to weigh on sentiment, the Greenback’s Trump-inspired strength of late having been one of the market's major recovery drivers, and the UK Index having benefited from corresponding GBP weakness.

Overnight, Japan’s Nikkei is the standout underperformer as US Dollar weakness translates to unwelcome Yen strength for its export contingent. Weaker Oil prices are also weighing on Energy, derived from continued production cut brinkmanship from both OPEC and Russia, scepticism still rife about whether tomorrow’s official OPEC meeting in Vienna will be a success.

Note Australia’s ASX, in the red, but only slightly as Energy sector weakness from oil price volatility and OPEC scepticism is compounded by lower industrial metals prices, most having turned back from recent surge peaks in spite of a weaker USD. Financials also weighing. Watch the UK Index Oil Majors and Miners again today.

US equity markets failed to notch another record close in their belts, ending the streak of last week, as sector contagion risk stemming from Italy’s at-risk banking sector prompted the Financial sector to weigh on indices. Both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 closed lower (0.3%/0.5% respectively) further weighed by a weaker US Dollar and diminishing hopes of an OPEC production cut deal leading to lower oil prices.

Crude Oil prices are declining (Brent below $48, US below $47) despite a slightly weaker US Dollar as optimism turns to pessimism that no production cut agreement will be reached by OPEC tomorrow. The latest from Vienna suggests that Saudi Arabia is attempting to force other members (notably Iran) into larger cuts than they are willing to make, whilst non-OPEC Russia, the producer of over 11m bpd, has stated its unwillingness to meet OPEC producers until a deal has been reached. Can the producers conjure up another 11th hour deal similar to Algiers two months ago?

Gold is trading sideways as it avoids breaking bellow vital $1184 support that would send the precious metal to fresh 9-month lows. Rising political risk in the form of the weekend’s pivotal European events - the Italian constitutional referendum and Austrian elections - alongside the slowing of the post-election Trump rally have helped the precious metal avoid any further breakdown.

In focus this morning will be UK Consumer Borrowing and Mortgage Approvals - both seen higher in October - given the importance of the UK’s housing market for consumer confidence. Mid-morning, Eurozone Confidence indicators are seen improved in November but, as usual, only slightly.

This afternoon, German Consumer Inflation (CPI) is expected a touch softer in November, although import price deflation this morning was not as bad as expected. The second estimate for annualised US GDP growth is forecast faster than the preliminary reading although inflation reads are expected cooler - headline and core.

To close the day for data, US S&P House Price growth is forecast to have accelerated in September and stateside Consumer Confidence back above the key 100 mark. Speakers of note today include Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem at 8.45am, the Fed’s Dudley at 2.15pm and colleague Powell at  5.40pm.

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • OFCOM says BT must legally separate from its Openreach network division
  • UK regulator to go to European Commission to force change at BT's Openreach
  • Countryside Properties FY16 Pretax Profit Up; Says Markets Recovered Since Brexit
  • LSL Property Services Trading Update-2016 Expectations Unchanged
  • Merlin: Resort Theme Parks Oper Group Enjoyed a Strong Halloween Period
  • Merlin Entertainments forecasts profit growth this year
  • Australia Shares Slip, Falling for 2nd Straight Day
  • Cranswick Reports 38% Jump in 1H Pretax Profit
  • Shaftesbury FY16 Pretax Profit Down on Smaller Revaluation Gains
  • Mosman Oil and Gas Limited Pine Mills Acquisition Update
  • UBS Asset Mgmt discloses clients stake in Mothercare
  • Russia's Evraz considering sale of Nakhodka port assets
  • Oxford Biomedica inks strategic alliance with Orchard Therapeutics
  • SSP forecasts slightly lower comparable revenue growth for next year
  • Avocet Mining says shipment containing about 6,100 ounces cleared customs
  • UK's FCA to review interest rate cap on payday loans
  • Meat retailer Crawshaw continues to trade in line with management expectation
  • Topps Tiles annual profit rises 7.8 pct on sales growth
  • Oil prices dip over scepticism ahead of OPEC meeting

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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