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Morning Report - 28 October 2014

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
TUI Travel PLC 374.7 9.1 2.5 -9.3
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC 2268 51.0 2.3 12.7
Reed Elsevier PLC 995 17.0 1.7 10.7
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 389.8 6.5 1.7 -2.9
Admiral Group PLC 1290 14.0 1.1 -1.5
Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC 5035 54.0 1.1 5.1
SABMiller PLC 3392.5 35.0 1.0 9.4
Sainsbury (J) PLC 240.4 2.2 0.9 -34.1
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Royal Mail Group PLC 443.8 -14.0 -3.1 -22.1
Smiths Group PLC 1121 -31.0 -2.7 -24.3
Fresnillo PLC 746 -20.5 -2.7 0.1
Aberdeen Asset Management PLC 400.9 -10.6 -2.6 -19.8
Aggreko PLC 1499 -37.0 -2.4 -12.3
Petrofac Ltd 1045 -23.0 -2.2 -14.6
Antofagasta PLC 678.5 -14.5 -2.1 -17.7
Barclays PLC 221.85 -4.5 -2.0 -18.4
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,363.5 -25.3 -0.40 -5.7
UK 15,040.4 -49.2 -0.33 -5.6
FR CAC 40 4,096.7 -32.2 -0.78 -4.6
DE DAX 30 8,902.6 -85.2 -0.95 -6.8
US DJ Industrial Average 30 16,818.0 12.5 0.07 1.5
US Nasdaq Composite 100 4,485.9 2.2 0.05 7.4
US S&P 500 1,961.6 -3.0 -0.15 6.1
JP Nikkei 225 15,329.9 -58.8 -0.38 -5.9
HK Hang Seng Index 48 23,372.3 229.1 0.99 0.3
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,452.6 -6.4 -0.12 1.9
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 80.78 0.12 0.14 -18.3
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 85.39 -0.39 -0.45 -22.6
Gold ($/oz) 1228.65 2.55 0.21 1.8
Silver ($/oz) 17.19 0.08 0.45 -11.9
Platinum ($/oz) 1258.00 6.50 0.52 -8.4
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.613 0.01 -2.6
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.270 0 -7.6
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.270 0.03 5.3
UK 100 called to open +25pts at 6390

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 12:30     US           Durable Goods Orders
  • B/M       US           Pfizer & DuPont Q3 Results
  • 13:00     US           S&P House Prices
  • 14:00     US           Consumer Confidence & Richmond Fed Manufacturing
  • A/M       US           Facebook & Marriot Int., Q3 Results

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

  UK 100 Index called to open +25pts at 6390, floundering slightly back below the 6400 level after yesterday’s IFO survey data from Germany put paid to what had looked like a breakout on EU bank stress test results, data from across the pond failed to boost optimism and Twitter’s guidance disappointed last night.

US stocks closed roughly flat after poor European macro data held sentiment back and US data added to the woes, with US PMI Services giving up more ground than expected, Pending Home Sales well below consensus and a Dallas Fed reading slipping. After the Close, Twitter’s earnings saw shares fall over 10% as revenues met expectations but the outlook failed.

The lack of or progress by the indices suggests investors taking a pause after last week’s rally amid all the volatility of late, digesting the flurry of data and changes in views/outlook, ahead of what may/may not be the Fed’s last taper of its QE programme, taking us a step closer to policy normalisation.

Asian stocks mixed overnight with caution ahead of the Fed’s Monetary Policy Decision despite macro data showing Japanese retail sales stronger than expected and China’s Industrial profits returning to growth in September. Sentiment perhaps dented by the BoJ’s Kuroda saying economy showing signs of Japanese output weakness and inflation falling.

The UK Index remains around the 6400 level, possibly having moved from an uptrend into a sideways consolidation following the 6.2% rally from recent lows. The prospect of a bullish Inverse Head & Shoulders reversal is still on the cards (neckline 6400). Watch levels: bullish 6450, bearish 6350.

In focus today we have US Durable Goods Orders which are seen rebounding from August’s weakness along with S&P House Prices. Thereafter, US Consumer Confidence seen edging higher but the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index pulling back, even more than the Dallas Fed did yesterday.

Results-wise we have Q3 updates from Pfizer and Dupont before the US open and Marriot and Facebook after the US close.

In commodities, safehaven Gold has found a boost from investors weighing up physical demand ahead of the US Federal reserve’s policy decision having weakened from 6-week highs amid last week’s equity market recovery.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

 

Key Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • CN          Industrial Profits                              Growth back positive
  • JP            Small Business Confidence         Miss, Deteriorated
  • DE           Import Prices Index                        Beat, improved

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

 

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Lloyds bill for mis-selling insurance rises to over 11 bln stg
  • Synthomer sees FY pretax profit to be slightly below current consensus
  • Lookers poised to beat expectations after strong Sept
  • BP raises dividend despite oil price drop, trims capex
  • BP Q3 underlying replacement cost profit falls
  • BG posts bigger-than-expected fall in profit

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