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| Yesterday’s UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Antofagasta | 833.6 | 28.6 | 3.6 | -17.1 |
| Glencore | 320.75 | 10.3 | 3.3 | -17.8 |
| Anglo American | 1575 | 39 | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Fresnillo | 947.2 | 23 | 2.5 | -33.7 |
| BHP Billiton | 1661.2 | 35.2 | 2.2 | 9.1 |
| Yesterday’s UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| British American Tobacco | 3909 | -138.5 | -3.4 | -22.1 |
| Ocado | 1079.5 | -35 | -3.1 | 171.9 |
| Berkeley Group | 3635 | -65 | -1.8 | -13.4 |
| United Utilities | 716.8 | -11.4 | -1.6 | -13.6 |
| Imperial Brands | 2800 | -44.5 | -1.6 | -11.6 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 7,577.5 | 14.3 | 0.19 | -1.4 |
| UK | 20,691.4 | 25.9 | 0.13 | -0.2 |
| FR CAC 40 | 5,479.1 | 46.6 | 0.86 | 3.1 |
| DE DAX 30 | 12,538.3 | 143.8 | 1.16 | -2.9 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 26,049.8 | 259.5 | 1.01 | 5.4 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 8,017.9 | 71.9 | 0.91 | 16.1 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,896.7 | 22.1 | 0.77 | 8.4 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 22,849.6 | 50.0 | 0.22 | 0.4 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 28,325.3 | 54.0 | 0.19 | -5.3 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 6,310.3 | 41.4 | 0.66 | 4.0 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 68.82 | -0.15 | -0.22 | 14.5 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 76.20 | -0.09 | -0.11 | 14.4 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1208.80 | -2.31 | -0.19 | -7.2 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 14.87 | 0.27 | 1.81 | -11.9 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.2868 | – | -0.23 | -4.7 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.1668 | – | -0.13 | -2.7 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.1030 | – | -0.08 | -2.0 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 Index called to open +47pts at 7625, exiting the long weekend on the front foot with a bullish breakout above last week’s 7615 highs resistance. Bulls need a break above 7650 to extend the breakout and make up ground towards Aug/June 7795 highs. Bears require a breach of this morning’s 7615 breakout. Watch levels: Bullish 7650, Bearish 7615
Calls for a positive open come after an ebullient start to the week on Wall St, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh record highs after a successful resolution of US-Mexico trade negotiations. That said, Canada is not yet on board, if a new NAFTA is to be created.
Chinese markets are the only ones trading in the red this morning, highlighting the continued trade dispute with the US, President Trump remarking that “now is not the right time to talk”, dashing hopes of negotiations and a swift resolution to the Washington/Beijing spat.
Further supporting the UK 100 , the USD is rebounding from fresh 4-week lows on the back of progress in global trade talks, the corresponding GBP weakness benefiting the UK Index ’s internationally-exposed contingent.
Gold is mirroring USD to trade lower, as the new week’s risk-on mood depresses demand for safe havens, while oil prices are lower amid some mild profit-taking following a strong 10-day rally although expectations are for another drawdown in US stockpiles this week.
In corporate news this morning Lloyds Banking says £1bn share buyback announced 8 March was completed 24 Aug. The FT reports that Melrose has put on hold the $800m sale (earmarked for GKN pension fund) of a US subsidiary where the CEO has stepped down for medical reasons.
NMC Health denies press speculation regarding acquisition of assets in India, reaffirming its current focus on the GCC market for capital deployment. The Fertility business and O&M vertical remain the only exceptions to the above and maintain a wider geographic focus.
Bunzl H1 like-for-like revenue +12% YoY due to M&A impact (organic +5.2%), missing consensus, adj. op. profit +10% (organic +5%), dividend +9%. Confident in positive FY prospects. Notes ~6% hit to revenues from FX headwinds. Acquired first business in Norway.
John Wood Group wins two new strategic modifications contracts from Norwegian energy group Equinor. Oxford BioMedica says Novartis's Kymriah cancer treatment gets EU approval. Avanti Communications signs 7yr distribution agreement with COMSAT, giving it immediate access to US governmental and military activity.
Polymetal secured a $250m 5yr fixed-rate loan from Alfa Bank to refinance maturing debt, increasing net debt to $1.65bn (to be partially offset by strong H2 cash flows). BATM Advanced Communications narrows H1 pre-tax loss thanks to strong networking/cyber revenue growth.
RPC to sell Foodservice business to Graphic Packaging Int. for $95m pre-tax cash-free, debt-free, subject to US regulatory approval. Acquired PLASgran for $34.5m cash-free, debt-free. Spirits closures business being marketed to interested parties.
Bank of Cyprus Chairman Josef Ackerman intends to step down at 2019 AGM after four years and major restructuring; The CEO Hourican's tenure extended to end-2020.
In focus today will be US S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices (2pm) with growth expected to have held firm at 6.5% YoY in June, continuing its third year of uninterrupted growth. US Consumer Confidence (3pm) is estimated slightly weaker in August, nearing the 2018 lows seen in January.
The US Advanced Trade Balance and Wholesale Inventories (both 1:30pm) are forecast to show a trade deficit pretty much unchanged in June (no joy for Trump’s trade policies, apparently), while Wholesale Inventories growth picks up to 0.2% MoM.
This evening, US API Oil Inventories (9:30pm) may show a slight build in crude stocks following last week’s hefty drawdowns for both private (API) and official (EIA) reports.
No significant speakers are scheduled for today although US companies Best Buy, Tiffany & Co and HP Enterprises report quarterly results this afternoon.
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Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research