Today's Main Events
- 9:00 DE IFO Business Surveys
- 11:00 UK CBI Reported sales
- 13:45 US PMI Services
- 14:00 US Pending Home Sales
- 14:30 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing
See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations
This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.
| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Shire PLC | 4050 | 155.0 | 4.0 | 42.0 |
| Vodafone Group PLC | 200.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | -32.1 |
| Standard Chartered PLC | 1115 | 16.0 | 1.5 | -18.0 |
| Old Mutual PLC | 184.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | -2.3 |
| 3i Group PLC | 379.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | -1.4 |
| Lloyds Banking Group PLC | 76.72 | 0.4 | 0.5 | -2.7 |
| Royal Mail Group PLC | 457.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | -19.7 |
| Admiral Group PLC | 1276 | 6.0 | 0.5 | -2.6 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Pearson PLC | 1139 | -30.0 | -2.6 | -15.1 |
| G4S PLC | 251 | -6.2 | -2.4 | -4.4 |
| Anglo American PLC | 1308 | -32.0 | -2.4 | -0.9 |
| Tullow Oil PLC | 494.6 | -10.9 | -2.2 | -42.2 |
| InterContinental Hotels Group PLC | 2217 | -43.0 | -1.9 | 10.1 |
| BHP Billiton PLC | 1627 | -31.5 | -1.9 | -13.0 |
| Next PLC | 6500 | -125.0 | -1.9 | 19.3 |
| Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC | 4981 | -94.0 | -1.9 | 3.9 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,388.7 | -30.4 | -0.47 | -5.3 |
| UK | 15,089.5 | -46.5 | -0.31 | -5.3 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,128.9 | -28.8 | -0.69 | -3.9 |
| DE DAX 30 | 8,987.8 | -59.5 | -0.66 | -5.9 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 16,805.4 | 127.5 | 0.76 | 1.4 |
| US Nasdaq Composite 100 | 4,483.7 | 30.9 | 0.69 | 7.4 |
| US S&P 500 | 1,964.6 | 13.8 | 0.71 | 6.3 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 15,388.7 | 97.1 | 0.63 | -5.5 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 23,112.9 | -189.3 | -0.81 | -0.8 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,459.0 | 46.7 | 0.86 | 2.0 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) | 80.98 | -0.32 | -0.39 | -17.6 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 85.90 | -0.27 | -0.31 | -22.2 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1229.95 | -1.25 | -0.1 | 2.2 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 17.17 | -0.03 | -0.15 | -11.5 |
| Platinum ($/oz) | 1251.50 | -9.30 | -0.74 | -8.9 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.609 | – | 0.02 | -2.8 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.270 | – | 0.21 | -7.8 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.267 | – | -0.19 | 5.3 |
See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations
UK 100 Index called to open +50pts at 6440, adding to last week’s gains and finally making headway above 6400 with the trend of rising lows from 16 Oct intact and sentiment buoyed by European bank Stress test results. The prospect of a bullish Inverse Head & Shoulders reversal looks closer with the 6400 neckline broken offering the chance of a 6730 target. Watch levels: bullish 6450, bearish 6370.
Bullishness rife this morning after a positive US close (earnings, macro data, shrugging off of Ebola), and a largely encouraging start to the week in Asia following results of the European Bank Stress tests as investors look ahead to the main event of the week - the Fed’s Monetary policy update. Do we see an end to QE or not?
Asian stocks mixed overnight with Greater China markets falling amid regulatory delays to a trading link between Hong Kong and Shanghai tempering gains elsewhere in the region, but volatility down on account of no big surprises from Europe’s bank stress test results. Global stocks look set to extend their rally.
ECB Bank stress tests and asset quality review pretty much as expected given Friday’s leaks, with 25 banks failing with a capital shortfall of €25bn of which 12 banks have already raised the €15bn required, while 2 Greek banks are exempt, leaving 11 banks needing to raise a net €10bn.
On its third attempt did the ECB get it right? Can trust be restored in the sector? Credit conditions to ease to help lending and growth? Sentiment buoyed by none of Europe’s top banks in trouble. The landmark review showed “most of Europe's banks will be purged of bad investments and ready to lend to businesses when the economy finally picks up”, the ECB said. UK banks still to be tested domestically, and BOE says more harshly.
While S&P upgraded Cyprus’ outlook to positive and S&P upgraded it to B+, Fitch has affirmed Spain and Italy at BBB+ Stable. Prepare for more sovereign debt rating updates following the Bank stress test results. Moody’s has yet to speak.
In focus today, we will no doubt have much analysis of the stress test results and whether they were too soft, again, and what it means for the region’s banking sector. Note Germany’s IFO criticising the failure to model a deflationary scenario which the region is tenuously close to.
Data-wise, we look to German IFO Business Surveys which are seen edging down (at odds with Friday’s PMIs), along with UK CBI Reported Sales. In the afternoon we have US PMI Services which is expected to fall back but remain well above 50, while US Pending Home Sales are seen rebounding in Sept and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index tick a little higher.
In commodities, safehaven Gold trades flat around $1230 on account of the revival in risk appetite but weakness still curbed by mix of physical demand and global uncertainty (growth, Ebola).
Oil prices stable from end-last week with WTI around $81 and Brent at $86 but with OPEC output, global growth outlook and the USD still driving the black stuff.
For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.
This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research