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Morning Report - 27 January 2015

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
BG Group PLC 917.6 25.9 2.9 6.1
Mondi PLC 1178 28.0 2.4 12.2
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 549 13.0 2.4 12.9
Royal Mail Group PLC 451.3 10.3 2.3 5.0
Persimmon PLC 1562 35.0 2.3 -1.0
Ashtead Group PLC 1118 25.0 2.3 -3.0
Schroders PLC 2919 64.0 2.2 8.7
Antofagasta PLC 697 12.5 1.8 -7.4
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Coca-Cola HBC AG 1076 -36.0 -3.2 -12.4
Tesco PLC 230 -5.3 -2.3 21.7
Babcock International Group PLC 1034 -19.0 -1.8 -2.3
BAE Systems PLC 512 -7.0 -1.4 8.5
BT Group PLC 426 -5.1 -1.2 6.1
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets PLC 196.9 -2.2 -1.1 6.9
Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC 5500 -60.0 -1.1 5.6
Aggreko PLC 1527 -16.0 -1.0 1.5
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,852.4 19.6 0.29 4.4
UK 16,470.5 11.6 0.07 2.4
FR CAC 40 4,675.1 34.4 0.74 9.4
DE DAX 30 10,798.3 148.7 1.40 10.1
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,678.7 6.1 0.03 -0.8
US Nasdaq Composite 100 4,771.8 13.9 0.29 0.8
US S&P 500 2,057.1 5.3 0.26 -0.1
JP Nikkei 225 17,768.3 299.8 1.72 1.8
HK Hang Seng Index 48 24,799.1 -110.8 -0.44 5.1
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,547.2 45.4 0.83 2.5
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 44.96 -0.22 -0.48 -15.9
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 48.36 -0.27 -0.56 -16.0
Gold ($/oz) 1282.30 2.50 0.2 8.2
Silver ($/oz) 17.97 0.03 0.15 14.4
Platinum ($/oz) 1253.20 -16.40 -1.29 3.7
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.509 0.01 -3.2
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.124 -0.07 -7.0
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.342 0.08 4.2
UK 100 called to open +10pts at 6860

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

Main Events

  • 09:30     UK          GDP
  • 12:30     US          Q4 Results: Caterpillar
  • 13:30     US          Durable Goods Orders
  • 14:00     US          S&P Case-Shiller House Prices
  • 14:45     US          Services PMI
  • 15:00     US          New Home Sales & Consumer Confidence
  • A/M       US          Q4 Results: A&T, Yahoo! & Apple

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +10pts at 6860, having made a late breakout at 6850 around the close yesterday to go and test close to 2014 highs 6900 overnight. The mid-January uptrend remains intact, and the hope is that 6850 reverts to support. Updated Watch levels: Bullish 6910, Bearish 6790.

The positive open is despite a flattish finish stateside as the Greek election result was digested and a harsh storm approaches the Eastern Seaboard, coupled with China Industrial Profits growth showing a worsening in contraction in December overnight, adding to global growth worries and emphasising the commodities rout and Russia being downgraded to junk by ratings agency S&P.

US bourses closes flattish to higher amid some lingering but easing uncertainty surrounding Greek funding with the IMF saying it will continue providing assistance to Greece but the Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem saying the Troika’s assistance depended on the newly-elected PM’s stance. US data also weighed, with the Dallas Fed Manufacturing index plunging negative.

After the US close, tech giant Microsoft hit profits forecasts and beat revenues for Q4 helped by its headlong growth into cloud computing although commercial software licensing revenues slipped.

Overnight, Asian bourses largely positive thanks to ratings agency Moody’s saying Asia will be resilient to global macro-economic challenges in 2015, although China hurt by the Industrial Profits growth data. Australia positive after a return from holiday, so an element of catch-up, offsetting mixed Australian Business Conditions surveys and the weak China data.

In focus today we have UK GDP growth seen a touch slower in Q4 although still registering solid annual growth. In November, the key Services component is expected to have shown similar growth as October. Before US data begins, note results from global growth barometers Caterpillar (CAT) and Proctor & Gamble (PG) around midday.

In the afternoon, US Durable Goods Orders are hoped to deliver a rebound in December as are New Home Sales, while S&P Case-Shiller House Prices is forecast to have remained solid in November. US PMI Services expected to improve slightly, while US Consumer Confidence continues to rise. After the US close note results from AT&T (T), Yahoo (YHOO) and Apple (AAPL).

Gold continues to fall back from five-month highs $1300, dented by the strong USD (product of weaker EUR following ECB QE announcement, less pressure from petro-dollar selling, the prospect of a US rate rise and the Fed meeting this week), as equities move higher denting safehaven demand even if uncertainty remains on global growth and Greece’s future.

Oil has also seen some more weakness creep in taking it back towards 6yr lows, with US Light Crude down to $45 and Brent hovering around recent $48 support with global growth and oil supply worries persisting despite OPEC’s warning that without new investment in production prices could surge failing to shift the market’s focus from the supply glut.

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Key Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Australia              Business Confidence                      Improved
  • Australia              Business Conditions                        Deteriorated
  • China                     Industrial Profits                               Contraction accelerated
  • China                     Conf Board Lead Econ index        Growth accelerated
  • Japan                    Small Business Confidence          Remains in contraction

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

 

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Greencore Group says Q1 revenue up 3.6 pct to 331.9 mln stg
  • Aer Lingus recommends $1.5 bln offer from BA-owner IAG
  • Carpetright says full year view unchanged
  • easyJet says first-half losses to fall this year
  • PZ Cussons says H1 operating profit rises 3.5 pct
  • Meggitt says Securaplane to supply surveillance system for Embraer's E-Jets E2
  • Foxtons sees lower full-year earnings after property sales slow
  • Gem Diamonds sees weak diamond prices continuing into Q1 of 2015

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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