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| Monday’s UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Spirax-Sarco Engineering | 6070 | 170 | 2.9 | 8.0 |
| Micro Focus | 1380.5 | 35 | 2.6 | -45.3 |
| Ashtead | 1643 | 41.5 | 2.6 | -17.5 |
| Schroders | 2070 | 40 | 2.0 | -17.5 |
| Informa | 627.4 | 10.4 | 1.7 | -13.1 |
| Monday’s UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| United Utilities | 731.4 | -37.8 | -4.9 | -11.8 |
| 3i | 756.2 | -33.4 | -4.2 | -17.2 |
| London Stock Exchange | 3908 | -159 | -3.9 | 3.0 |
| Sage Group | 567 | -21.2 | -3.6 | -29.0 |
| Evraz | 469.8 | -15.9 | -3.3 | 38.2 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,686.0 | -35.2 | -0.52 | -13.0 |
| UK | 17,319.3 | -123.7 | -0.71 | -16.4 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,623.3 | -71.0 | -1.51 | -13.0 |
| DE DAX 30 | 10,633.8 | 22.7 | 0.21 | -17.7 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 22,878.5 | 1086.3 | 4.98 | -7.5 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 6,554.4 | 361.4 | 5.84 | -5.1 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,467.7 | 116.6 | 4.96 | -7.7 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 20,077.6 | 750.6 | 3.88 | -11.8 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 25,579.7 | -71.6 | -0.28 | -14.5 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,597.2 | 103.4 | 1.88 | -7.7 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 45.88 | -0.71 | -1.52 | -23.7 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 54.46 | -0.82 | -1.49 | -18.3 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1268.61 | -0.60 | -0.05 | -2.6 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 14.69 | -0.03 | -0.2 | -13.0 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.2659 | – | 0.09 | -6.3 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.1387 | – | 0.23 | -5.1 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.1116 | – | -0.15 | -1.2 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 called to open +45pts at 6730, extending its Christmas Eve rebound from a flirt with 6600 (new 2018 low), currently testing for a bullish breakout from a 2-week falling channel. Bulls need a break above 6755 overnight highs. Bears require a breach of 6700. Watch levels: Bullish 6750, Bearish 6700
Calls for a positive open come after a very strong close in the US last night, with a trifecta of 4%+ moves (Dow +4.98%/1086pts; all 30 members positive; Nasdaq +5.84%), the best stateside session in almost a decade, helping indices retrace some of December’s recent declines (fuelled by Fed hike, Trump tweets, Mnuchin reassurances, Trade war fears; many still in play) and escape from/avoid a Bear market.
While Japan’s Nikkei and Topix were up 3.9-4.9%, echoing the US but still in Bear market territory, China and Hong Kong are lower (-0.3%) after China Industrial Profits growth disappointed overnight (+11.6% YTD YoY vs +13.6% prev) which could influence UK Index Mining shares this morning and update market risk sentiment with dual-listed Miners mixed in Australia overnight.
Furthermore, data suggests heavier than usual post-Christmas equity buying and rebalancing of US portfolios, likely exacerbated by recent share price declines offering more attractive entry points (oversold?) being capitalised upon while “normal” trading volumes are holiday-thinned. The bounce by consumer discretionary and Tech supports this theory.
Oil jumped over 8% (also merely reversing recent declines) boosted by comments from Russian energy minister Novak that prices were likely to stabilise in 2019 thanks to pledges to cut production by OPEC and allies earlier this month. Watch UK Index Oil majors (BP, Shell and smaller service companies) as well as Airlines.
In corporate news this UK Index Retailers may react to suggestions that Boxing Day sales got off to a less than stunning start, with lower footfall. By contrast, names with more online sales may benefit.
A Reuters report suggests Rio Tinto may list its Canadian Iron Ore Co. unit with RBC, Credit Suisse and JP Morgan working on an IPO in the first half of 2019 in New York and Toronto. EVRAZ confirms strategic interest to explore possible options in relation to coal assets of partner Sibuglemet.
Immunomedics expands contract manufacturing deal with Johnson Matthey for part of a breast cancer drug being ruled on by the FDA on 18 Jan. Plus500 confirms strong momentum since 20 November; expects full year results ahead of market expectations.
UK Index Russel says, effective 31 Dec, Randgold Resources (merging with Barrick Gold) will be deleted UK 100 , replaced by Auto Trader; while Sabre Insurance is promoted to .
Faroe Petroleum says drilling results from Cassidy well disappointing. WANdisco wins 3yr US healthcare contract worth $700K in royalties.
In focus today, as UK equity trading resumes from the Christmas break, UK Index ex-dividends include British American Tobacco (1.94%), BT (1.90%) and Dixons Carphone (1.84%).
Data comprises US House Prices (2pm), US Consumer Confidence and US New Home Sales (both 3pm) and, with oil in focus after a big rebound, US API Oil Inventories (9.30pm)
Tomorrow’s macro economic readings include UK Mortgage Approvals, which could move Housebuilders and Banks shares, as well as German Inflation and, from the US, Chicago PMI, US Pending Homes Sales and EIA Oil Inventories.
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Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research