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Morning Report - 27 April 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Standard Chartered 555.55 50.8 9.8 -1.5
Paddy Power Betfair 8755 390.0 4.7 -3.6
BP 379.625 15.6 4.3 7.2
Lloyds Banking 69.02 2.4 3.6 -5.5
Berkeley Group 3083.5 95.0 3.2 -16.4
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
AstraZeneca 3963.25 -85.0 -2.1 -14.2
Burberry 1210 -24.0 -1.9 1.3
Glencore 151.425 -3.0 -1.9 67.4
Inmarsat 930.75 -17.0 -1.8 -18.1
Anglo American 672.8 -11.9 -1.8 124.7
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,284.5 23.6 0.38 0.7
UK 16,945.5 -20.2 -0.12 -2.8
FR CAC 40 4,533.2 -12.9 -0.28 -2.2
DE DAX 30 10,259.6 -34.8 -0.34 -4.5
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,990.3 13.0 0.07 3.2
US Nasdaq Composite 4,888.3 -7.5 -0.15 -2.4
US S&P 500 2,091.7 3.9 0.19 2.3
JP Nikkei 225 17,295.4 -57.9 -0.33 -9.1
HK Hang Seng Index 50 21,314.5 -92.7 -0.43 -2.7
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,181.5 -39.1 -0.75 -2.2
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 44.48 0.70 1.59 20.0
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 46.24 0.65 1.43 23.0
Gold ($/oz) 1245.75 1.35 0.11 17.5
Silver ($/oz) 17.31 0.14 0.83 25.2
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.46 -0.04 -1.1
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.13 0.02 4.0
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.29 -0.07 -5.0
UK 100 Index called to open -10pts at 6275

UK 100 Index - 1 month chart

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open -10pts at 6275, showing renewed weakness overnight (blame US tech results) following failure of yesterday’s rebound to overcome 6300. The bulls are watching 6250 for another bounce, pinning hopes on a daily RSI close to 8-month rising support. The Bears are making much of the breach of April’s uptrend, focusing on potential for a 3-day bearish flag from recent 6430 highs. Watch levels unchanged: Bullish 6305, Bearish 6245.

Expectations for a negative open in Europe can be pinned on more disappointing results from US Tech (Apple, Twitter) which knocked sentiment in Asia overnight and offset the positive US close and a rebound in Chinese industrial profits. This has only added to recent reticence ahead of central bank meets by the Fed and BoJ. While hopes are high that the latter eases, the risk is that the former delivers a less dovish message that disappoints markets.

Asian bourses in the red with Australia's ASX underperforming, despite a weaker AUD, as inflation data missed expectations to flirt with deflation for the first time in seven years. This has raised the odds of a rate cut by the RBA in May even after it suggested a 2% floor in April’s minutes. Commodity price weakness from a USD rebound also weighing on the index’s mining sector, even as Oil pushes higher.

US bourses quiet ahead of this evening’s FOMC announcement with broad market buoyancy provided by the energy sector on a still-rising oil price. Note also a couple US macro data misses (Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence).

Corporates will be weighing on the Dow today after Apple (AAPL) posted its first drop in quarterly revenue in 13 years, part of a set of numbers that pretty much missed across the board. Fellow tech hipster Twitter (TWTR) also fared poorly. In both cases, investors will almost certainly be looking more at the guidance than the numbers though. Apple’s got complacent in its assumption that people will buy a new £650 mobile phone every year, while the outlook for Twitter’s money making potential remains as opaque as Jack Dorsey’s beard.

Crude oil prices are STILL strong this morning after making new YTD highs overnight as traders appear to be reacting to a perceived re-balancing in supply and demand. Brent and WTI are currently consolidating after making breakouts above $46 and $44 respectively. Note buyers’ remorse could see a little retracement today.

Gold is currently trading near a falling trend line around $1245 which could prove to be a hurdle with potential for a bit of pre-emptive USD strength to see the yellow metal back towards $1232 ahead of the US Central bank this evening. It’ll take a good bit of risk-on to see gains north of $1250, though poor US data of late might well tip the Fed’s rhetoric towards the dovish end of the spectrum.

In focus today will be the US Federal Reserve policy update this evening. No change expected but language of statement to be closely scrutinized for clues about timing of next rate hike. UK GDPis seen slightly slower in Q1, but still a solid 2% on an annual basis. In the afternoon, US Pending Homes Sales are expected to have seen much slower in March. US Oil inventories always of interest but no surprise that consensus is for another build. US Results today from Texas Instruments, United Tch, Boeing and Facebook

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Barclays Q1 profit falls 33 pct as investment banking slowdown bites
  • Foxtons cautions on slower second – quarter sales pipeline
  • London Stock Exchange Group Q1 revenue rises 8 pct
  • UK regulator criticises Asda over promotion tactics
  • Nomura slips to Q4 net loss, first quarter in red since 2011
  • Fenner says H1 results in line with management expectations
  • CRH reports Q1 sales up 9 pct from 2015 proforma
  • Amec Foster Wheeler appoints Halliburton executive as CEO
  • Stagecoach says outlook for UK rail industry more challenging
  • Antofagasta sees year – on year rise in copper output, focus on cost
  • Croda says Q1 profit growth in line with expectations
  • expects to complete restructuring before end of financial year
  • Argos – owner Home Retail profit slumps 28 pct
  • Santander net profit falls almost 5 pct on Brazilian gloom

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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