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| Yesterday’s UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Old Mutual | 210.9 | 2 | 1.0 | -9.0 |
| Associated British Foods | 2836 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| ITV | 177 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 7.0 |
| United Utilities | 751 | 0.4 | 0.1 | -9.5 |
| Sky | 1415 | – | 0.0 | 39.8 |
| Yesterday’s UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Carnival | 4215 | -528 | -11.1 | -13.8 |
| Reckitt Benckiser | 6078 | -239 | -3.8 | -12.2 |
| Paddy Power Betfair | 8210 | -145 | -1.7 | -7.0 |
| Rio Tinto | 4042.5 | -139.5 | -3.3 | 2.6 |
| Ferguson | 5949 | -128 | -2.1 | 11.6 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 7,509.8 | -172.4 | -2.24 | -2.3 |
| UK | 20,774.4 | -235.5 | -1.12 | 0.2 |
| FR CAC 40 | 5,283.9 | -103.5 | -1.92 | -0.5 |
| DE DAX 30 | 12,270.3 | -309.4 | -2.46 | -5.0 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 24,252.8 | -328.3 | -1.34 | -1.9 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 7,532.0 | -160.8 | -2.09 | 9.1 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,717.1 | -37.8 | -1.37 | 1.6 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 22,332.1 | -6.0 | -0.03 | -1.9 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 28,881.0 | -80.4 | -0.28 | -3.5 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 6,192.2 | -18.2 | -0.29 | 2.1 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 68.28 | -0.12 | -0.18 | 13.6 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 74.79 | 0.49 | 0.66 | 12.2 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1263.99 | -3.21 | -0.25 | -3.0 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 16.32 | -0.09 | -0.55 | -3.3 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.3284 | – | 0.03 | -1.6 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.1714 | – | 0.10 | -2.4 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.1342 | – | -0.04 | 0.8 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 Index called to open +20pts at 7530, off Monday lows but yet to break back above yesterday’s 7545 breakdown, which would open the door for a recovery of the recent 2.7% sell-off from 7690. Bulls need a break above 7545 support-turned-resistance; Bears require a breach of rising overnight support at 7525. Watch levels: Bullish 7545, Bearish 7525
Calls for a positive open come in spite of weak trading in Asia and on Wall St, where the tech sector was broadly hurt by White House threats to restrict Chinese investments in sensitive US technology companies, which was then not deemed to be China focused which opened the door to it being a global thing. This trade spat story looks to have good legs on it everyone. Buckle up.
Oil prices are off Monday’s lows, helping investors (especially UK Index Energy) break through negative sentiment, although Mining could see some damage (BLT & RIO down in Australia) on the back of China worries, muted USD trading and a corresponding flat GBP. Note Gold prices lower, although only by a whisker, as investors regaining some confidence and look to more risky assets.
In corporate news this morning, BHP Billiton and Vale agree to a 2yr delay in settling a $41bn civil suit for the 2015 Samarco dam collapse (still to be Federally approved). No time frame on restart of Samarco iron-ore mine. Anglo American reports cycle 5 diamond sales of $575m, +3.8% sequentially, +6.2% YoY.
A US federal judge has dismissed lawsuits by San Francisco and Oakland alleging oil companies, including BP and Shell, should pay to protect residents from the impacts of climate change. Petrofac says trading in-line with expectations, new orders $1.8bn, net debt $900m forecast in-line. Polymetal announces start-up of new Kyzyl mine ahead of schedule and below budget.
After Heathrow’s third runway got parliamentary approval last night, easyJet’s CEO could said he would be interested in setting up a base there. SIG sells VJT Technology to private equity for £30m. Northgate FY revenues rise, profits fall, net debt higher; market remains competitive, cost pressures; appoints new permanent CFO. Faroe Petroleum production guidance (12-15k boepd avg) unchanged.
Carpetright FY group rev. -3%, adj. EBITDA -77.6%, net debt jumps 5.4x on poor operating performance and tighter credit from suppliers. Recent trading disrupted by restructuring, but improved since CVA approval and equity raising. Plus500 admitted to premium listing segment on LSE.
In focus today is UK data including BBA Home Loans (9.30am), which can serve as an indicator of both housing market strength and consumer confidence when growing. Forecasts are for a small increase in May, continuing to bottom out from March’s low. Later in the morning, CBI Sales data (11am) for June is forecast flat.
This afternoon’s S&P Case-Shiller Housing (2pm) will provide an update on the US housing market, with consensus factoring in a slightly slower pace of growth in April, but the annual pace holding firm. The Richmond Fed (3pm) may have pulled back a little in June, but Consumer Confidence (3pm) is pencilled in for a flat read this month.
With oil prices having pulled back after OPEC’s decision last week to roll back on production cuts/enforce max 100% compliance of existing cuts, look out for tonight’s API Inventories (9.30pm) ahead of tomorrow's official EIA update.
Speakers today include the Bank of England’s McCafferty (hawkish; 10.30am) who speaks at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in London. Watch GBP in light of potential for an August rate rise. The ECB’s new VP De Guidos (1pm) opens the ECB’s latest Bond Market Contact Group (BMCG) meeting in Frankfurt. Watch EUR on any comments about QE.
This evening the USD has potential to move on any policy comments from a pair of centrist Fed speakers, with Bostic (6.15pm; voter) at an armchair chat (with Q&A) at the Birmingham Civil Rights Institute Alabama and Kaplan (6.45pm; non-voter) at a moderated Q&A session at the "Greater Houston Partnership State of Talent".
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Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research