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| Friday’s UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| ITV | 182.8 | 5.9 | 3.3 | -11.4 |
| Fresnillo | 1605 | 45.0 | 2.9 | 31.5 |
| Ashtead Group | 1620 | 39.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Old Mutual | 198.4 | 4.2 | 2.2 | -4.3 |
| Admiral Group | 2036 | 31.0 | 1.6 | 11.4 |
| Friday’s UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Smurfit Kappa Group | 2359 | -60.0 | -2.5 | 25.2 |
| Shire | 4518.5 | -107.5 | -2.3 | -3.5 |
| Mediclinic International | 757 | -17.5 | -2.3 | -1.8 |
| BAE Systems | 650 | -14.5 | -2.2 | 9.9 |
| AstraZeneca | 5401 | -107.0 | -1.9 | 21.7 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 7,424.1 | -15.2 | -0.20 | 3.9 |
| UK | 19,685.0 | 26.7 | 0.14 | 8.9 |
| FR CAC 40 | 5,266.1 | -15.8 | -0.30 | 8.3 |
| DE DAX 30 | 12,733.4 | -60.6 | -0.47 | 10.9 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 21,394.8 | -2.5 | -0.01 | 8.3 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 6,265.3 | 28.6 | 0.46 | 16.4 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,438.3 | 3.8 | 0.16 | 8.9 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 20,167.1 | 34.4 | 0.17 | 5.5 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 25,803.9 | 133.9 | 0.52 | 17.3 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,720.2 | 4.3 | 0.08 | 1.0 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 43.47 | 0.34 | 0.78 | -2.7 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 46.02 | 0.42 | 0.92 | -2.7 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1255.25 | -2.55 | -0.2 | 0.0 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 16.65 | -0.02 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.2746 | – | 0.22 | -0.3 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.1193 | – | 0.06 | 0.1 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.1387 | – | 0.21 | -0.3 |
UK 100 Index called to open +25pts at 7450, having broken above 7440 to extend last week’s late rebound and overcome a 3-day trend of falling highs resistance. Bulls like the look of rising lows from Friday’s 7395 trough, hoping the rally has legs back to Tuesday’s highs of 7560. Bears are on the lookout for any test of rising lows at 7440. Watch levels: Bullish 7460, Bearish 7430.
A positive opening call comes courtesy of a positive session in Asia to start the new trading week and oil recovering more of last week’s lost ground, although we caution that Crude prices have yet to convince that they can overcome their falling channels of the last month.
While oil is helped by a weaker USD, note potential for a stronger GBP to hinder the UK UK Index , although a slightly weaker EUR may help the German DAX outperform its UK peer. News of yet more European bank wind-ups in Italy could help and/or hinder sentiment towards the sector.
Chinese equities outperform (CSI breakout) as they bask in last week’s decision by MSCI to include A-shares in their emerging markets benchmark. Japan’s Nikkei is just positive as financials hold sentiment back, Toshiba faces demotion to the TOPIX and airbag maker Takata files for bankruptcy. Australia’s ASX is flat despite gains for Oil and metals including Copper but excluding precious.
US equity markets finished the week mostly positive, with Energy names snapping a 4-day losing streak to aid sentiment. The strong performance from the sector led the S&P500 higher, offsetting weakness in Healthcare, while Tech resumed its recent strength, helping the Nasdaq to outperform. The Dow Jones closed flat, as Retail names offset gains for Visa, Boeing and Microsoft.
Crude Oil prices have extended their rally from Wednesday’s lows, briefly breaking back above key levels in the early hours of this morning, however have pulled back as they reach rising channel pattern ceilings. Global benchmark Brent traded above $46 for the first time since Wednesday’s sell-off in the early hours of this mornings, but has since has broken back below, while its US equivalent has dipped back below $43.50, heading towards the channel floor at $43.
Having rallied to $1259 on Friday, Gold has fallen in overnight trading to test a duo of support levels. Rising lows support since Wednesday and former resistance turned support at $1254 could provide a launchpad for a return to test falling highs resistance at $1257 and fresh 2-week highs, however an extended US dollar rally from lows could see the precious metal fall back below the $1250 mark.
In focus today will be any news on conclusion of UK PM May’s negotiations with Northern Ireland’s DUP on a ‘confidence and supply agreement’ that provides the Conservatives with a commons working majority or leave it with an inferior minority government that risks another general election.
DUP leader Arlene Foster goes to Downing St again today as talks enter a third week. Time is of the essence as we edge towards a June 29 deadline for resolution of Northern Ireland’s political stalemate to reach a power-sharing agreement to restore the devolved Northern Irish assembly.
Today also sees the publishing of 15 pages of the Government’s proposed plan to protect the rights of the 3.2m EU workers living in the UK before Brexit.
Data of note this morning includes German IFO Surveys (9am), expected unchanged in June, as well as UK BBA Home Loans (9.30am), forecast lower in May.
This afternoon, US Durable Goods Orders (1.30pm) are seen weak in May at the headline, but likely improved when big-ticket Transport and Defence are excluded. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (also 1.30pm) may have pulled back towards the mean in May after a strong April while the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (3.30pm) may edge back a touch, but hold close to the level of the last three months.
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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
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