This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.
| Yesterday’s UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Sky | 1359 | 51 | 3.9 | 34.3 |
| Imperial Brands | 2472 | 83.5 | 3.5 | -21.9 |
| British American Tobacco | 3850 | 106 | 2.8 | -23.3 |
| CRH | 2543 | 56 | 2.3 | -4.3 |
| Evraz | 421.5 | 8.3 | 2.0 | 24.0 |
| Yesterday’s UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Ashtead | 2010 | -105 | -5.0 | 0.9 |
| Anglo American | 1675 | -72.6 | -4.2 | 8.1 |
| Croda International | 4438 | -181 | -3.9 | 0.3 |
| GlaxoSmithKline | 1412.2 | -50 | -3.4 | 6.8 |
| Smurfit Kappa | 3010 | -88 | -2.8 | 20.1 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 7,379.3 | -46.1 | -0.62 | -4.0 |
| UK | 20,019.0 | -176.2 | -0.87 | -3.4 |
| FR CAC 40 | 5,413.3 | -30.9 | -0.57 | 1.9 |
| DE DAX 30 | 12,422.3 | -128.5 | -1.02 | -3.8 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 24,083.8 | 59.5 | 0.25 | -2.6 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 7,003.7 | -3.6 | -0.05 | 1.5 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,639.4 | 4.8 | 0.18 | -1.3 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 22,324.9 | 109.6 | 0.49 | -1.9 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 30,077.7 | -250.5 | -0.83 | 0.5 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,911.8 | -9.8 | -0.16 | -2.5 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 68.36 | 0.53 | 0.79 | 13.7 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 74.46 | 0.74 | 1 | 11.7 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1323.95 | 3.05 | 0.23 | 1.6 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 16.55 | -0.17 | -1 | -2.0 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.3943 | – | 0.05 | 3.3 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.2175 | – | 0.03 | 1.5 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.1452 | – | 0.02 | 1.8 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 Index called to open -5pts at 7375, having pulled back from another overnight attempt to crack 7400. Bulls need a break above 7405 to clear 2-day falling highs. Bears require a breach of rising support at 7350 to extend a 3-day falling channel. Watch levels: Bullish 7405, Bearish 7350
Calls for a muted open derive from mixed trading in Asia overnight (Samsung surged, financials weak ahead of today’s ECB meeting), in spite of a late rally on Wall Street (S&P500 0.18%, Dow +0.25%, Nasdaq -0.05%) as investors digested strong results from Facebook (ad revenues beat consensus; shares up sharply in after-hours trading).
The US 10-year Treasury yields held above 3%, and the USD Index hit 3-month highs, although it has pulled back overnight, to produce reciprocal GBP and EUR strength this morning.
In corporate news this morning, Barclays Q1 Net Operating Income $5.07bn (-4%), better than £5.03bn est, pre-tax profit (excl litigation) £1.72bn (+1%) beats £1.63bn est, but litigation charges of £2bn, £400m PPI provision and Core T1 ratio 12.7% misses 12.9% est, down from 13.3% at end-17, announces partnership with Paypal. BP appoints new Chairman to Start January 2019
Royal Dutch Shell Q1 earnings on a current-cost-of-supply basis (excl. identified items) in-line at $5.3bn ($5.28bn consensus), +24% QoQ/+42% YoY, op cash flow +30%/-1%, helped by higher oil and gas prices, another $1.3bn divestments completed ($6.5bn in Q4). TOTAL Q1 results also beat expectations..
Taylor Wimpey Spring trading good, demand still strong, underlying housing market stable, good access to mortgages/low rates, caught up on sales & build after poor March weather. On track for FY expectations but completions be more H2 weighted. CMA warns that SSE Retail merger with Npower could lead to higher prices for some bill-payers.
Norwegian Air Shuttle has received several inquiries after IAG's 4.6% stake purchase, sees FY available seat KM +40%, Q1 revenues +33%, net loss narrowed. Schroders Q1 AUM -2.2% QoQ, small declines in all segments, Cobham 1Q in-line; reiterates FY 2018 guidance. KAZ Minerals Q1 copper production +29% YoY, expects to hit FY guidance target. Meggitt Q1 organic revenues +6%; FY targets unchanged
Oil prices edged higher overnight, closing at $74.75/bbl, +0.59% (Brent) and $68.36/bbl, +0.46% (WTI), in spite the build up in EIA Oil Inventories that mirrored earlier API numbers by showing an unexpected rise (+2.2M) in crude stocks.
Gold was slightly up, trading at $1324 as US Treasury yields maintained their position north of 3% and US Dollar strengthened as a result. Aluminium price volatility subsided as prices settled at $2229 on LME following news of a potential sanctions relief for embattled miner Rusal which has seen its Irish alumina refinery (key to Europe’s auto supply chain) restart production.
In focus today will be the ECB monetary policy update (12.45pm). As per usual, with no change to rates expected, it’ll all be about what President Draghi has to say in the press conference (1.30pm). Note potential for recent weak macro data to have dampened the Governing Council’s outlook. This could result in further QE tapering being delayed and the programme lasting into 2019, in turn delaying further policy normalisation and thus rate hikes.
In terms of data, UK BBA Mortgage approvals (9.30am) are forecast lower for a second month in a row which influence the London listed Housebuilders. In the same vein, UK CBI Sales (11am) could have a bearing on sentiment towards UK Index Retail.
This afternoon’s major data includes US Durable Goods Orders (1.30pm), forecast to have normalised following last month's strong rebound, while the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Composite (Index 4pm) is expected unchanged in April.
Big name US companies reporting Q1 results today include AbbVie, Amazon, American AIrlines, Amgen, ConocoPhilips, Expedia, General Motors, Intel, Microsoft, PepsiCo, SouthWest Airlines, Starbucks, Time Warner and UPS, all of could have read-across to both UK and European names later in the day and overnight.
For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.
This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research