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Morning Report - 25 November 2015

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Glencore PLC 93.98 3.6 3.9 -68.6
Rolls-Royce Group PLC 588 19.0 3.3 -32.4
Intertek Group PLC 2665 84.0 3.3 14.2
Babcock International Group PLC 1035 30.0 3.0 -2.2
Randgold Resources Ltd 4070 114.0 2.9 -7.1
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Burberry Group PLC 1195 -63.0 -5.0 -27.0
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 549.5 -18.5 -3.3 13.0
Whitbread PLC 4306 -141.0 -3.2 -9.7
easyJet PLC 1594 -52.0 -3.2 -4.6
Dixons Carphone PLC 453.7 -12.1 -2.6 -1.9
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,277.2 -28.3 -0.45 -4.4
UK 16,950.0 -156.9 -0.92 5.4
FR CAC 40 4,820.3 -68.8 -1.41 12.8
DE DAX 30 10,934.0 -158.3 -1.43 11.5
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,812.3 19.5 0.11 -0.1
US Nasdaq Composite 5,102.8 0.3 0.01 7.7
US S&P 500 2,089.1 2.6 0.12 1.5
JP Nikkei 225 19,847.6 -77.3 -0.39 13.7
HK Hang Seng Index 48 22,582.5 -5.2 -0.02 -4.3
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,193.7 -32.7 -0.63 -4.0
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 43.03 0.30 0.69 -19.9
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 46.25 0.12 0.26 -19.7
Gold ($/oz) 1078.55 3.55 0.33 -8.8
Silver ($/oz) 14.18 0.01 0.09 -9.6
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.511 0.2 -3.0
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.067 0.22 -11.8
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.417 -0.03 10.0
UK 100 called to open +30pts at 6305

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +30pts at 6305, having rebounded strongly from lows of 6220 to regain 6300 just after the European close and continue to oscillate around the level overnight. Nonetheless, we remain held back by the trend of falling highs from 23 Oct at 6330 and 100-day MA at 6360 which may cap short-term upside. It may even contribute towards ushering us back towards August rising lows at 6100. Watch levels: Bullish 6315, Bearish 6280.

The positive opening call comes after US equities closed higher, and despite a largely negative session in Asia as Russo-Turkish relations remain tense following the downing of a Russian fighter jet on the Turko-Syrian border. However sentiment has staged a solid recovery from yesterday's depressed lows, preventing Gold from registering any further safehaven led gains overnight. Markets showing resilience for a second week in a row as we move into US Thanksgiving holiday.

Asian stocks mostly in the red with Japan’s Nikkei hindered by a stronger JPY which hurt exporters as safe assets were sought and an oil price rise from Middle Eastern supply concerns was factored in for the net importer of fossil fuels. BoJ minutes showing openness to more policy easing failed to help. Australia’s ASX also down on the back of a stronger AUD, the outlook for industrial commodities remaining bleak and despite Chinese consumer confidence rebounding in November, which has helped buoyed the country’s stocks.

Wall Street managed to stay just positive on Tuesday with that significant hiccup involving Turkey downing a Russian bomber causing some unease - but actually doing more good than harm to the markets as geopolitical tension pushed up the oil price. This benefitted energy stocks (note UK 100 , highly weighted by oil/commodity producers, rallied in the afternoon) to help stateside indices even if consumer confidence took a hit ahead of the impending Black Friday stampede, by which time you can bet your bottom dollar it will be right back up again - retailers & consumer goods will be in focus (OK, we meant iPhones…). Note US markets will be closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving. A lack of US participation will have an effect on global markets.

In corporate world, note talk of Shire (SHP) said to be preparing a new takeover offer for Baxalta (BXLT) which may include cash and shares.  The newly split tech giant HP (HP) also disappointed on the guidance front last night. And at a time of travel concerns note Thomas Cook (TCG) reporting its first profits in 5 years.

In focus today will be US Personal Income & Spending for their impact on inflation and US rate rise trajectory while US Durable Goods orders will be eyed for signs of economic resilience. US housing data will be of interest given the mixed prints of late while PMI Services is seen improving. In the UK the Chancellor's Autumn statement could be key for the UK housebuilders.

Crude prices are doing some technical things this morning - the news is the same: Geopolitics and global oversupply, while we’ve seen Brent’s overnight gains meet resistance, potentially giving up as much as a dollar today. WTI, meanwhile, is testing 48 hour rising lows having failed to break yesterday’s highs. The issue of oversupply remains in the driving seat with geopolitics contributing little except short-term volatility.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • UK Mail CEO steps down
  • Daily Mail sees tough ad market in 2016 after profits dip
  • United Utilities says to accelerate 2015–20 capex programme
  • Thomas Cook confident on 2016, flags possible payout restart
  • XP Power acquired EMCO High Voltage Corp for $12m
  • Betfair Raises Half Year Dividend
  • Britvic FY15 Pretax Profit +15%; Confident for Year Despite Slow Start
  • BG GROUP starts commercial operations from QCLNG T2

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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