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Morning Report - 21 August 2015

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Randgold Resources Ltd 4255 233.0 5.8 10.2
Fresnillo PLC 684.5 36.5 5.6 5.8
Anglo American PLC 740.5 31.1 4.4 -8.7
Admiral Group PLC 1587 65.0 4.3 7.2
Antofagasta PLC 571.5 19.5 3.5 0.8
Glencore PLC 162.85 3.9 2.5 -21.7
BHP Billiton PLC 1092.5 21.0 2.0 -7.6
Rio Tinto PLC 2361 38.0 1.6 -5.1
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Mondi PLC 1488 -46.0 -3.0 -3.4
Prudential PLC 1472 -42.5 -2.8 -2.4
Taylor Wimpey PLC 198.5 -5.5 -2.7 2.1
Carnival PLC 3358 -92.0 -2.7 -5.5
Hargreaves Lansdown PLC 1131 -25.0 -2.2 -5.6
Sage Group (The) PLC 509 -11.0 -2.1 -2.3
British American Tobacco PLC 3582.5 -74.5 -2.0 -5.8
SABMiller PLC 3156.5 -65.0 -2.0 -6.2
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,367.9 -35.6 -0.56 -3.0
UK 17,239.4 -159.2 -0.91 7.2
FR CAC 40 4,783.6 -100.6 -2.06 12.0
DE DAX 30 10,432.2 -250.0 -2.34 6.4
US DJ Industrial Average 30 16,990.8 -358.0 -2.06 -4.7
US Nasdaq Composite 100 4,877.5 -141.6 -2.82 3.0
US S&P 500 2,035.7 -43.9 -2.11 -1.1
JP Nikkei 225 19,494.0 -539.5 -2.69 11.7
HK Hang Seng Index 48 22,233.0 -524.5 -2.30 -5.8
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,207.8 -80.8 -1.53 -3.8
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 41.04 -0.08 -0.19 -23.6
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 46.02 -1.13 -2.39 -20.1
Gold ($/oz) 1164.05 8.65 0.75 -1.6
Silver ($/oz) 15.59 0.07 0.47 -0.6
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.570 0.00 0.05 0.8
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.128 0.00 0.44 -6.7
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.391 0.00 -0.38 8.0
UK 100 called to open -100pts at 6270

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open -100pts at 6270 with a brief pause here before further losses have potential to take the index down another 100pts towards Oct 2014 lows 6100. Bulls looking to a ‘buy it, it’s cheap’ bounce while Bears will want to keep riding the trend all the way to profit taking time 6100. Watch levels: Bullish 6370, Bearish 6100.

The really rather negative opening call comes amid further deterioration of the Chinese growth outlook (dire manufacturing data overnight) and political turmoil in Greece that continues to hamper investor sentiment. Greek PM Tsipras officially resigned last night, with snap elections slated for 20 Sept and endorsed by the EU. The good news is that the ECB confirmed it had received the latest colossal debt repayment from Athens overnight. Phew!

Stateside, the Dow Jones hit YTD lows with sectors that have outperformed thus far in 2015 taking an absolute pounding as the outlook for emerging markets, not to mention the globe, tumbled. Investors struggling in recent sessions with a plunge in commodity markets, upheaval in global currency markets and a growing sense that the Federal Reserve may change the way it assesses the economy's readiness for a rate hike.

Asian stocks firmly in the red after China’s manufacturing data came out at a 6 year low and a 6th straight month of contraction. Markets choosing to believe the bad data while being suitably sceptical about the good is not boding well for China! An exchange of artillery fire between North and South Korea adding to regional worries.

Gold ($1159) benefitting from sheer desperation as a safe haven, with the USD presumably being tarred with a similar brush to that which has painted Asia-Pacific currencies recently (i.e. the Chinese Yuan, Malaysian Ringitt, Vietnamese Dong, Kazakhstani Tenge...).  Off its highs this morning with more profit taking by jubilant Goldbugs, but likely to keep moving up. These drivers won't go away any time soon.

Crude prices still holding above the psyche level $40 with a perceived dearth of demand from China and general global oversupply showing no signs of abating. Any drop below $40, however,  is likely to be technically driven (rather than macro- driven) and short lived. Brent currently at $46, US Light $40.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • APR Energy comments further on terminated projects in Yemen and Libya
  • Rose Petroleum to modify drilling plans until commodity prices have rebounded
  • Dragon Oil says ENOC to compulsorily acquire rest of co's shares
  • Spain's Sabadell says completes purchase of TSB

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