Today's Main Events
- 09:30 UK Employment Report
- 09:30 UK BoE MPC minutes
- 13:30 US Housing Starts & Building Permits
See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations
This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.
| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Fresnillo PLC | 911 | 35.0 | 4.0 | 18.9 |
| Glencore PLC | 257.45 | 9.8 | 3.9 | -13.8 |
| Sports Direct International PLC | 760.5 | 27.0 | 3.7 | 7.0 |
| Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The) PLC | 380.5 | 11.5 | 3.1 | -3.5 |
| Anglo American PLC | 1121.5 | 32.0 | 2.9 | -6.6 |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group SA | 509 | 14.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 |
| Kingfisher PLC | 336.6 | 8.8 | 2.7 | -1.2 |
| easyJet PLC | 1654 | 42.0 | 2.6 | -1.0 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Coca-Cola HBC AG | 1057 | -65.0 | -5.8 | -13.9 |
| Admiral Group PLC | 1416 | -36.0 | -2.5 | 7.1 |
| Associated British Foods PLC | 3050 | -63.0 | -2.0 | -3.3 |
| Barratt Developments PLC | 427.3 | -6.2 | -1.4 | -9.3 |
| Weir Group PLC | 1674 | -22.0 | -1.3 | -9.6 |
| Persimmon PLC | 1468 | -19.0 | -1.3 | -7.0 |
| SABMiller PLC | 3343 | -41.0 | -1.2 | -0.5 |
| Dixons Carphone PLC | 442.2 | -4.3 | -1.0 | -4.4 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,620.1 | 34.6 | 0.52 | 0.8 |
| UK | 16,126.6 | 59.4 | 0.37 | 0.3 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,446.0 | 51.1 | 1.16 | 4.1 |
| DE DAX 30 | 10,257.0 | 14.8 | 0.14 | 4.6 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 17,515.2 | 3.6 | 0.02 | -1.7 |
| US Nasdaq Composite 100 | 4,654.9 | 20.5 | 0.44 | -1.7 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,022.6 | 3.1 | 0.15 | -1.8 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 17,280.5 | -85.8 | -0.49 | -1.0 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 24,329.8 | 378.7 | 1.58 | 3.1 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,393.4 | 85.7 | 1.61 | -0.3 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) | 46.94 | 0.20 | 0.42 | -13.0 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 48.41 | -0.34 | -0.7 | -15.3 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1303.00 | 10.80 | 0.84 | 9.2 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 18.33 | 0.40 | 2.24 | 14.3 |
| Platinum ($/oz) | 1278.60 | 15.80 | 1.25 | 5.8 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.517 | – | 0.16 | -2.8 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.158 | – | 0.32 | -4.6 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.310 | – | -0.15 | 1.9 |
See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations
UK 100 Index called to open +10pts at 6630, building on its recent breakout even if hindered at 6645 highs overnight by 200-day moving average. A pause would make sense, and potential remains for completion of bullish flag pattern around Nov/Dec highs 6765. Note falling highs from Sept at 6685 still need clearing. Watch levels: Bullish 6675, Bearish 6590.
The positive open comes from a largely upbeat performance in Asia following better Chinese GDP and solid German ZEW surveys yesterday, some stability in Oil, and widespread expectations/complacency that the ECB delivers tomorrow, keeping global central banks accommodative.
US markets closed flat to higher with results from Morgan Stanley proving another Q4 banking disappointment while US NAHB Housing Market Index stayed flat. A tech rally helped erase losses derived from concerns over weaker corporate earnings and global growth outlook.
After the close, ratings agency Fitch said US growth underpins its stable corporate outlook while President Obama’s State of the Union address called on the America to turn the page on war and recession with far-reaching initiatives to boost wages and jobs to improve US competitiveness and fight domestic inequality.
European optimism on ECB QE hopes was offset by the Greek finance minister saying QE would not be enough to solve Athens’s liquidity problems, and called for Greek debt to be included in QE despite its junk rating. Russian President Putin was also sabre-rattling about strengthening armed forces to protect sovereignty against foreign challenges.
Asia-Pacific bourses mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei in the red due to JPY strengthening after positive macro data and unchanged BoJ policy although there was some tinkering with inflation forecasts cut (oil to blame) and GDP expectations revised up (oil to thank?). Stocks in China outperforming for a second day. Australia’s ASX the outperformer after a rebound in consumer confidence and despite stronger AUD.
In focus today, we have the UK Employment report for Nov/Dec seen showing another drop in jobless claims, another tick down in the unemployment rate and most importantly in a world of low inflation, another pick-up in wages growth with growth now comfortably above that of price rises. A welcome consumer boost.
BoE Minutes will be watched for any changes in voting and comments on falling inflation (oil again) or revised growth outlook. In the afternoon, US Housing Starts and Building Permits are expected to show a growth rebound in December offsetting the stable reading by NAHB yesterday.
Gold holds a five-month high around $1300, maintaining its northerly course and showing little sign of fatigue. Helped by weaker USD overnight and safehaven demand from uncertainty surrounding global growth and ECB action tomorrow and Greek election at the weekend. Could another bullish flag pattern complete around July $1340 highs? Note Daily RSI overbought but not yet reversed.
Oil has found support, with Brent around $48/barrel and US Light $46-7, after sliding back from highs and amid continued volatility. All eyes on US Crude stockpiles again tomorrow with expectations for another build, although smaller, emphasising the global supply glut situation. Iran still at odds with Saudi Arabia, saying no threat from $25/barrel.
For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.
See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations
This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research