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| Yesterday’s UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Associated British Foods | 2285 | 60 | 2.7 | -19.0 |
| Fresnillo | 847.6 | 22 | 2.7 | -40.7 |
| Rio Tinto | 3817 | 94.5 | 2.5 | -3.2 |
| Antofagasta | 858 | 21 | 2.5 | -14.6 |
| St James’s Place | 1138.5 | 27 | 2.4 | -7.1 |
| Yesterday’s UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Burberry | 2008 | -103 | -4.9 | 12.1 |
| GVC Holdings | 971 | -27.5 | -2.8 | 5.0 |
| Kingfisher | 242.7 | -4.3 | -1.7 | -28.1 |
| Rightmove | 470.4 | -5.6 | -1.2 | 4.5 |
| BAE Systems | 628.8 | -7.4 | -1.2 | 9.7 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 7,367.3 | 36.2 | 0.49 | -4.2 |
| UK | 20,551.3 | 50.9 | 0.25 | -0.8 |
| FR CAC 40 | 5,451.6 | 57.9 | 1.07 | 2.6 |
| DE DAX 30 | 12,326.5 | 107.5 | 0.88 | -4.6 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 26,657.0 | 251.3 | 0.95 | 7.8 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 8,028.2 | 78.2 | 0.98 | 16.3 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,930.8 | 22.8 | 0.78 | 9.6 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 23,924.6 | 249.6 | 1.05 | 5.1 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 27,776.3 | 298.7 | 1.09 | -7.2 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 6,185.9 | 16.4 | 0.27 | 2.0 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 70.28 | -0.22 | -0.31 | 16.9 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 78.81 | -0.02 | -0.03 | 18.3 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1208.98 | 4.98 | 0.41 | -7.2 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 14.27 | -0.04 | -0.28 | -15.5 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.3269 | – | -0.01 | -1.7 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.1785 | – | 0.08 | -1.8 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.1260 | – | -0.08 | 0.0 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 Index called to open +27pts at 7395, extending its bullish reversal from 5-month lows of 7225. Bulls would welcome a break above 7400, to open the door for a revisit of September 7532 highs. Bears likely require a breach of 7370 rising support for a pullback towards Wednesday’s 7323 breakout. Watch levels: Bullish 7400, Bearish 7375
Calls for a positive open are supported by a sea of green on global equity markets after fresh record highs on Wall St (Dow Jones, S&P), the indices resuming their uptrends thanks to solid US macro data, a decent earnings and revival of Tech interest (Nasdaq +1%) after recent pressure.
Persistent USD weakness (3-month lows vs. major peers) is helping commodities, with metals (precious + industrial), and oil trading higher, which may further help UK Index heavyweights, particularly Miners (strong in Australia overnight), extending the sector’s recent reversal.
In corporate news this morning, Smiths Group FY underlying revenues +2% YoY (reported -2% due to FX), at lower end of consensus; pre-tax profit -8% (mid consensus), div +3%. Selling Smiths Medical bottling business for $40m. Expects to sustain current underlying revenue growth in 2019.
SIG H1 revenues +1% YoY, underlying pre-tax profit -21.8%, dividend unchanged. UK impacted by poor weather and macro uncertainty (sales -2.3%), Europe better (+3.8%). FY guidance reiterated, absent further deterioration in UK trading conditions.
HSBC plans SG$750m (£1bn) 5.875% perpetual contingent convertible bond issue (“CoCo”; convertible under capital adequacy trigger), callable every 5 yrs.
In focus today will be September preliminary PMI Manufacturing & Services from Europe (8:15-9am) and the US (2:45pm). All are expected to hold above 50, indicating expansion. That said, Manufacturing in Europe may have softened even if Germany is unchanged. The US is forecast to outperform Europe again with expansion for both Manufacturing and Services.
Closer to home, UK public finances (9:30am) are once again projected to fall back to a deficit after an August surplus following seasonal tax receipts. The Bank of England (BoE) also publishes its Q3 Quarterly Bulletin (12pm) discussing price stability and monetary operations as well as market developments like trade and Brexit. Could impact GBP with a knock-on for the UK Index .
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Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research