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Morning Report - 21 November 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
TUI AG 1034 33.0 3.3 -14.6
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC 3250 79.0 2.5 1.9
Micro Focus International PLC 2063 48.0 2.4 29.3
Whitbread PLC 3604 79.0 2.2 -18.1
Paddy Power Betfair PLC 8775 165.0 1.9 -3.4
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Fresnillo PLC 1289 -95.0 -6.9 82.1
Rolls-Royce Group PLC 657.5 -41.5 -5.9 14.4
Randgold Resources Ltd 5790 -295.0 -4.9 39.8
Polymetal International PLC 762.5 -26.0 -3.3 30.5
Anglo American PLC 1089.5 -37.0 -3.3 263.8
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,775.8 -18.9 -0.28 8.6
UK 17,659.2 58.3 0.33 1.3
FR CAC 40 4,504.4 -23.4 -0.52 -2.9
DE DAX 30 10,664.6 -20.9 -0.20 -0.7
US DJ Industrial Average 30 18,868.0 -35.8 -0.19 8.3
US Nasdaq Composite 5,321.5 -12.5 -0.23 6.3
US S&P 500 2,181.9 -5.2 -0.24 6.8
JP Nikkei 225 18,106.0 138.6 0.77 -4.9
HK Hang Seng Index 50 22,321.0 -23.2 -0.10 1.9
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,351.3 -8.1 -0.15 1.0
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 46.99 1.81 4 26.7
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 47.51 1.16 2.5 26.3
Gold ($/oz) 1212.75 5.45 0.45 14.4
Silver ($/oz) 16.70 0.16 0.95 20.8
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2341 -0.0258 -0.05 -16.2
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.0606 -0.0249 0.18 -2.4
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1635 0.0028 -0.23 -14.2
UK 100 called to open +20pts at 6795

UK 100 : 1 month; 4-hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +20pts at 6795 remaining in the narrowing trading pattern established a week ago, although rallying towards one month falling highs resistance. Bulls will be hoping for a challenge and subsequent breakout towards 6850 and higher, whereas Bears will be hoping for a swift turn back from that resistance to a breakdown of 2-week rising lows support in order for a slide towards November lows of 6650. Watch levels: Bullish 6810, Bearish 6745.

Calls for a positive open are being made as the US Dollar has fallen slightly from its record highs of last week, however remains close enough that the boost for London’s corporates and Germany’s exporters is maintained. Adding to the positive mix are strengthening crude oil prices, the rally of late last week continuing as renewed optimism that a production cut deal can be reached by OPEC in Vienna in just 10 days is bolstered by positive rhetoric from Iran, Iraq and Russia over the weekend.

Japan’s Nikkei once again benefited from the overwhelming strength of the US Dollar, posting fresh intraday highs shortly after the open in Tokyo, however other Asian bourses traded mixed as the varying impact of the Buck drove markets. Australia’s ASX performed the worst, the heavily weighted commodity exporting index struggling with the greenback strength, whereas both Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Shanghai’s Composite index are in the green.

US equity markets closed posting marginal losses on Friday despite the Nasdaq posting fresh all times high shortly after the market open. The Tech rebound following its post election sell-off buoyed wider market sentiment as fears surrounding the impact of the record-breaking US Dollar on multinationals weighed on both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500.

Crude Oil prices are once again being buoyed by improved market optimism that OPEC members will be able to reach a deal at the end of this month, being further helped by the USD trading below its record highs posted on Friday. Iran, Iraq and Russia all released optimistic statements that a deal could be reached on November 30, however Russian President Putin refused to commit to 100% certainty it will take place.

Gold has bounced from its 5 and a half month lows that were reached as a result of US Fed Chair Yellen’s appearance before congress, where she seemed to hint at a rate hike in December. This technical rebound may, however, be short lived if Yellen’s second in command Fischer adds his weight to her comments to congress made on Friday when he speaks later today.

In focus today, with data few and far between, we have the October Chicago Fed National Activity Index early afternoon. After September’s sharp improvement from 2016 lows can the index get back to break even, maybe even break positive? Thereafter all we have to look forward to is the latest read from the China Conference Board Leading Economic Index, a data point whose growth has been re-accelerating since a June slowdown.

Speaker-wise, listen out for the ECB’s Costa before BUBA monthly report from Germany's central bank. Around midday we hear from the ECB’s Linde & Villeroy followed by the Fed’s Stanley Fischer who discusses monetary policy, inflation rates and economic outlook at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. This latter spiel could contain some nuggets of interest given he is a voter in next month’s US monetary policy update and with a Fed rate hike very much on the cards.

Just before the European close the ECB’s Coeure takes part in a Europe panel discussion in Munich, ECB President Draghi participates in the plenary discussion about the 2015 ECB Annual Report at the European Parliament and colleague Nouy speaks in Rome about the European Banking Sector.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Aker BP says post-2020 output could more than double vs 2016
  • Helical says sells West London property for £34.5m
  • UK outsourcing group Mitie warns on results a second time this year
  • Costain says gets contract worth £113m by National Grid
  • Enquest says Kraken development project remains on course
  • Enquest sees 2016 daily output slightly below prior guidance
  • Alibaba Cloud stretches global reach with four new facilities
  • GSK files regulatory submission in U.S. for COPD treatment
  • Bonmarche first half profit falls on tough trading conditions
  • Copper leads broad rally in metals, further gains seen
  • Oil prices climb on expectation of OPEC-led production cut

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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