Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open +55pts at 6110, which is - ironically - where we were called to open yesterday before the sell-off to 2-month lows. An overnight rally has resulted in a full retrace with the Bulls excited at the prospect of a bullish inverse head & shoulders reversal that could thus take us back to 6185 if we can break above 6117 overnight highs. Range traders looking to ride any rally back to the 6200 ceiling while Bears hope for a drop back to the lows. Watch levels: Bullish 6125, Bearish 6095.

The positive opening call comes as Asian bourses post gains that contrast stateside losses. This comes as concerns about US rate hike timing following release of the latest Fed FOMC minutes ease into the end of what has been an exciting yet volatile week. A strong USD settling to allow commodities (notably Oil) regain composure.

A weaker Yen thanks to Dollar stability and a bounce by Gold easing safehaven seeking that had favoured the far East currency currency (while the rate-sensitive yellow metal fell) is helping Japan’s Nikkei - exporters in particular. Energy names are more buoyant via the oil price recovery. The Aussie ASX is benefiting from commodities finding their feet on a calmer US dollar.

US bourses closed negative, though off the lows of the day as they tracked the oil price from its lows. Equities are under pressure from renewed hawkishness from the Fed, which seems to think we’re all getting a bit comfortable with current easy policy. Maybe it’s right. In any case, we’re now to believe that a June rate rise is very much on the cards.

Crude prices went up overnight, supported by a resurgence of the supply concerns we saw last week and the start of US ‘driving season’ - which is really a thing. Brent has turned over without reaching its recent highs while WTI is looking primed for a push towards $48.75.

The Gold price, after bouncing off $1245 3-month rising support is more or less flat with the USD steadying around its 4-week high. Note we could be in for more dollar strength today and thus pressure on metals given the now almost constant stream of Fed rate hike chatter, so watch out for that. Mind you, it’s also Friday and we thus have the traditional chance of risk off moves into the weekend.

In focus today will be UK CBI Orders and Prices as the Brexit debate hots up and after inflation cooled but Retail Sales surprised to the upside. A complicated picture. Thereafter, we’re back to US data with US Existing Home Sales seen higher in April before the now important US Baker Hughes Rig Count after the European close as a diver for oil prices. Another drop in rigs could help us back towards $50.

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

• Betting odds indicate 79% probability of a British vote to stay in the EU
• UK's Close Brothers says Q3 loan book rises 4%
• Ladbrokes, Coral need to sell shops to win deal clearance
• Gulf Keystone Petroleum confirms standstill agreement noteholders
• Moss Bros Group says like – for – like sales up 5% for first 15 weeks
• Pendragon says to buy back 20 million STG worth shares
• John Menzies says trading in line with expectations up to April end
• Spectris reported sales increased by 2% up to April 30
• Sinclair Pharma expects to deliver 40% FY rev growth
• Copper firms, but faces third week of decline as dollar jumps
• Oil prices rise as turmoil in Nigeria adds to global supply disruptions