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Morning Report - 20 April 2017

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Sainsbury (J) PLC 267.4 12.8 5.0 7.3
easyJet PLC 1117 53.0 5.0 11.1
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The) PLC 235.7 11.0 4.9 4.9
Next PLC 4321 134.0 3.2 -13.3
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 542.5 14.0 2.7 23.0
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Burberry Group PLC 1566 -135.0 -7.9 4.6
Fresnillo PLC 1545 -47.0 -3.0 26.5
Randgold Resources Ltd 7155 -215.0 -2.9 11.5
Royal Dutch Shell PLC 2067 -58.0 -2.7 -12.2
Severn Trent PLC 2357 -55.0 -2.3 6.1
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 7,114.4 -33.1 -0.46 -0.4
UK 19,417.8 119.9 0.62 7.4
FR CAC 40 5,003.7 13.5 0.27 2.9
DE DAX 30 12,016.5 16.1 0.13 4.7
US DJ Industrial Average 30 20,404.5 -118.8 -0.58 3.3
US Nasdaq Composite 5,863.0 13.6 0.23 8.9
US S&P 500 2,338.2 -4.0 -0.17 4.4
JP Nikkei 225 18,454.6 22.4 0.12 -3.5
HK Hang Seng Index 50 23,916.3 90.4 0.38 8.7
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,816.2 12.2 0.21 2.7
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 51.00 -1.03 -1.97 0.3
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 53.13 -1.36 -2.49 -1.1
Gold ($/oz) 1280.55 -0.85 -0.07 2.3
Silver ($/oz) 18.14 -0.05 -0.29 -0.8
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2804 0.00 0.17 2.1
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.0726 0.00 0.1 0.6
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1937 0.00 0.07 1.5
UK 100 called to open -10pts at 7105

UK 100 : 2-day; 5 minutes

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -10pts at 7105, with an overnight rebound from 2017 lows and pivotal support at 7090 finding resistance at 7120 on account of falling highs since Tuesday afternoon. Whilst the  index has held above 7100 since midnight, note the aforementioned falling highs also preventing any bettering of 7110 over the last hour. Bulls, noting an oversold RSI, are looking for a break above 7120 overnight highs to  give hopes of a reversal back towards 7400. Bears want to see 7100 give way in order for 7090 to be troubled again to increase the probability of bigger declines. Watch levels: Bullish 7120, Bearish 7090.

Calls for another negative open come after a mixed session on Wall St and in spite of a decent performance in Asia overnight. Blame can be pinned on another drop in oil prices which will likely put another dent in the UK Index via disproportionately influential Oil Majors, with a negative read across for a commodity sector still troubled by lower metals prices and global growth uncertainty. Geopolitics is also keeping market guessing ahead of this weekend’s too tough to call first round French presidential election.

Cautious trade in Asia sees Australia’s ASX is outperforming in spite of Energy sector weakness while gains, something that is offsetting strength in financials, hopes of strong results from Canon and a weaker Yen to keep Japan’s Nikkei around breakeven.

US equity markets were mixed on Wednesday as Energy names weighed on blue-chip indices, while the Tech-focused Nasdaq avoided losses to close higher. The Dow Jones was led lower by underperformance from IBM on account of weak Q1 results and the crude oil price slide hurting oil major Chevron, while the S&P500’s Energy sector was the index’s greatest laggard.

Crude Oil prices have found support overnight following yesterday’s 3% slide for global benchmarks. The sell off came as US EIA inventories report noted US crude oil production reached its highest level since August 2015, offsetting the bullish impact of the first back-to-back weekly drawdowns in inventories. Investors will be hoping a weaker US dollar or talks of an extension to OPEC-led production cuts could inspire a further recovery from lows of $52.60 and $50.50 for Brent and US benchmarks respectively, although note the potential emergence of bearish flag patterns.

Gold price has fallen further from its recent 5-month high as the US dollar attempts to recover from Tuesday’s 3-week lows, however is retaining support around $1278 as geopolitics remains at the fore. Investors in the precious metal will have one eye on the performance of the global reserve currency following strength in its European counterparts earlier in the week, while the other will be focused on the latest news from the French presidential race, the Korean Peninsula and Syria.

In focus today will be continued analysis of this weekend's French first round Presidential election as well as preparations and polls for our own UK snap general election in early June.

Data-wise, we have nothing until this afternoon when we get the US Philly Fed, forecast to give up yet more ground in April after February’s 33yr high, taking us back closer to levels seen in Jan. Thereafter, the US Leading Index is expected to see its pace of growth slow in March. Closer to home, Eurozone Consumer Confidence for March is expected to confirm improvement in March, getting back its levels from the turn of the year and best in around 2 years.

Speakers include the Fed’s Powell alongside European Commission Vice President Dombrovskis in a Q&A discussing "Capital Markets, Growth & the Economy of Tomorrow" at the "Global Finance Forum" held in Washington. Bank of England Governor Carney is also in Washington, participating at events by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) and Bank of France.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Unilever CFO comments on outlook, spreads unit sale
  • moneysupermarket.com says first quarter revenue up 2%
  • Card Factory appoints Kristian Lee as chief financial officer
  • Acacia Mining Q1 gold sales stall on Tanzanian export ban
  • Acacia Mining Q1 core earnings up 25%
  • UK's Debenhams steps up spending in bid to return to growth
  • GoAhead says Q3 trading in line with management expectations
  • Sky says UK customer defections steady in Q3
  • Man Group funds under management rise 10% to $88.7bn in Q1
  • Russia's Evraz says Q1 crude steel output up 8.7% QoQ
  • Rio Tinto climbs; co maintains full-year shipment guidance
  • Oil prices claw back some losses, but oversupply still weighs
  • Gold steady on geopolitical worries amid firmer dollar

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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