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Morning Report - 19 February 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Centrica PLC 207.4 13.3 6.9 -4.9
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 541.5 13.5 2.6 -11.3
Persimmon PLC 2045 47.0 2.4 0.9
Berkeley Group Holdings (The) PLC 3367 71.0 2.2 -8.7
Barratt Developments PLC 583.5 11.5 2.0 -6.8
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Anglo American PLC 432 -36.1 -7.7 44.3
Standard Chartered PLC 421.8 -24.5 -5.5 -25.2
Barclays PLC 161.75 -6.4 -3.8 -26.1
AstraZeneca PLC 4129.5 -150.0 -3.5 -10.6
Rio Tinto PLC 1888.5 -62.5 -3.2 -4.6
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 5,972.0 -58.4 -0.97 -4.3
UK 16,176.8 20.5 0.13 -7.2
FR CAC 40 4,239.8 6.3 0.15 -8.6
DE DAX 30 9,463.6 86.4 0.92 -11.9
US DJ Industrial Average 30 16,413.5 -40.3 -0.24 -5.8
US Nasdaq Composite 4,487.5 -46.5 -1.03 -10.4
US S&P 500 1,917.8 -9.0 -0.47 -6.2
JP Nikkei 225 15,967.2 -229.6 -1.42 -16.1
HK Hang Seng Index 48 19,249.7 -113.4 -0.59 -12.2
AU S&P/ASX 200 4,952.8 -39.2 -0.79 -6.5
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 30.54 -0.49 -1.56 -17.6
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 34.03 -0.46 -1.33 -9.5
Gold ($/oz) 1227.35 -4.25 -0.35 15.7
Silver ($/oz) 15.42 -0.04 -0.24 11.5
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.43 0.02 -2.7
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.11 0.05 2.3
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.29 -0.03 -5.0
UK 100 Index called to open flat at 5970

UK 100 Index - 1-month

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open flat at 5970 with yesterday’s 5950 lows holding up overnight, keeping the uptrend alive thanks to bounce off intersecting support from 9 Feb lows. The break back below 6000 is, however, significant with yesterday's turn back from 6030 maintaining the longer-term downtrend from early Dec highs. After gains of almost 10% in the space of a week, are we due a retrace? Watch levels: Bullish 6050, Bearish 5940.

The flat opening call comes despite a negative US session spilled over into Asia overnight where losses were greater, with another pullback by oil serving to dampen risk appetite and buoy demand for safehaven assets such as Gold and the Japanese Yen (JPY). Suggestions that China’s central bank (PBOC) has tightened the leash on certain overzealous lending banks also offsets hopes of looser policy and or more stimulus to boost growth on the world’s #2 economy.

Japan’s Nikkei is underperforming, with exporters hurt by a stronger JPY as investors worry about market volatility, global growth and whether central banks are running out of options. A poor reading for Japanese All-Industry Activity - a GDP proxy - hasn’t helped by confirming a tough end to Q4. A lower oil price is hurting Energy names across the region, notably on the Aussie ASX.

US markets closed in negative territory Thursday, pressured by an unsurprising fall in crude oil prices following another rise in US stockpiles and a reminder from Saudi Arabia that ‘freeze’ does not mean ‘cut.’ The Fed’s Williams yet again repeated what the Fed always says about rate hikes (gradual, slow, steady, we didn’t make a mistake, blah blah blah) while observing that the US economy looks to be in pretty good shape.

In focus today, to close the week, we have UK Retail Sales seen delivering a marked improvement in January, rebounding from a poor December, where mild weather, consumer concerns about a rate rise and a successful black Friday in November hurt sales. Comments from the Fed's Mester will be of interest given the Fed's changing message as will news from Brussels on UK PM David Cameron's efforts to get a new deal for the UK in the EU and avoid what is dubbed Brexit.

US Inflation will be key (expected negative again) after more oil price weakness and given the Fed’s suggestions that rate rises could be off the cards for a while longer on account of market volatility. Eurozone Consumer Confidence seen still depressed and the Baker Hughes Rig Count probably fell again.

Crude prices pulled back on increased US stockpiles and that reminder from Saudi Arabia. With Iran unlikely to agree to participate in the grand plan to freeze production at record high levels, output is set to go nowhere but up.

A pullback in equities and oil yesterday afternoon saw Gold hit $1240 overnight, from where it has since retreated amid a more risk-on Asian session. Still maintaining rising support around $1205. Note technicals have gone bearish

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Coca Cola HBC revenue falls on FX hit
  • Standard Life's FY pretax operating profit rises to £665m
  • Vodafone places £2.88bn of mandatory convertible bonds
  • AstraZeneca's says Brilique approved in EU for heart attack patients
  • UTV Media Wins Ministerial Approval For UTV Television Sale
  • M&C Hotels FY pretax profit -42%
  • Millennium & Copthorne Hotels 4Q15 Falls, Halves Dividend; Concerned for Future
  • Essentra 2015 Pretax Profit Falls; Says Confident for Growth in 2016
  • Segro says FY pretax profit £686.5mn
  • Moss Bross appoints Tony Bennett as finance director
  • SEGRO 2015 Pretax Profit Rises; Says Market Conditions and Investment Appetite Good

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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