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Morning Report - 18 July 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Ashtead Group PLC 1130 20.0 1.8 1.0
Intertek Group PLC 3601 58.0 1.6 29.7
Persimmon PLC 1571 22.0 1.4 -22.5
Johnson Matthey PLC 3146 43.0 1.4 11.8
GlaxoSmithKline PLC 1650 21.5 1.3 20.2
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
easyJet PLC 1140 -31.0 -2.7 -34.5
Fresnillo PLC 1858 -49.0 -2.6 162.4
Carnival PLC 3473 -81.0 -2.3 -10.2
St James’s Place PLC 847 -18.5 -2.1 -16.0
RSA Insurance Group PLC 478.3 -8.7 -1.8 12.2
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,669.2 14.8 0.22 6.8
UK 16,727.3 -60.7 -0.36 -4.0
FR CAC 40 4,372.5 -13.0 -0.30 -5.7
DE DAX 30 10,066.9 -1.4 -0.01 -6.3
US DJ Industrial Average 30 18,516.5 10.0 0.05 6.3
US Nasdaq Composite 5,029.6 -4.5 -0.09 0.4
US S&P 500 2,161.7 -2.0 -0.09 5.8
JP Nikkei 225 16,497.9 112.0 0.68 -13.3
HK Hang Seng Index 50 21,727.9 68.7 0.32 -0.9
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,460.9 31.3 0.58 3.1
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 45.87 0.01 0.01 23.7
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 47.66 0.04 0.08 26.8
Gold ($/oz) 1328.80 -8.90 -0.67 25.3
Silver ($/oz) 20.03 -0.26 -1.29 44.9
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.32 0.41 -10.1
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.11 0.36 1.9
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.20 0.07 -11.8
UK 100 Index called to open +20pts at 6690

UK 100 Index: 2-week

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open +20pts at 6690, still in recovery mode from Friday’s lows. This keeps alive not only July’s uptrend but also the bullish patterns we’ve been highlighting: 3-week bullish flag + 11-month bullish inverse H&S reversal. A break above 6700 would likely excite the Bulls about fresh 11-month highs. A break below 6650 might put July’s uptrend in jeopardy and serve to fire up the Bears again. Watch levels: Bullish 6705, Bearish 6675.

The positive opening call comes after a failed military coup in Turkey against President Erdogan as stability/control returns to the European-Asian-Middle East crossroads following an eventful weekend in which 6,000 dissident soldiers and lawmakers were arrested. This happening so soon after the tragic events in Nice last week simply adds to plentiful pre-existing geopolitical tension.

Asian stocks largely positive, shrugging off geopolitical concerns thanks to positive house price data from China on the back of solid GDP numbers last week and continued renminbi stability. Japanese stocks helped by a weaker Yen and Australia’s ASX holding up well in spite of a sharp drop iron ore prices and a mixed picture in the commodity space as the US dollar sits around recent highs.

US stocks closed off another  positive week with equity indices hitting record highs once more, although they did come back towards the end of Friday’s session to finish flat for the day. We had somewhat of a choir of Fed speakers in Atlanta Governor Lockhart and Minneapolis's Kashkari who were encouraged by US economic strength with the former still thinking that 2 rate hikes this year can happen. They were joined by St. Louis Governor Bullard, who saw inflation as an ‘upside risk’ to his own forecasts and thus called for one 2016 hike. Note the White House cut its GDP forecasts to +1.9% in 2016  and +2.5% in 2017.

Crude prices have broken out of their July falling highs, both Brent and WTI potentially consolidating ahead of another leg up towards the ceiling of their June falling channels. Note the new Saudi oil minister offering some more words of wisdom to the markets concerning ‘supply and demand.’

Gold spiked higher amid the attempted coup in Turkey, and has subsequently settled back as it became clear the government was able to remain in control of the country. Rising support since 14 June is encouraging to gold bulls nonetheless with equity markets in the US looking toppy and USD basket trading near resistance.

In focus today, with data rather lacking, will be the upshot of the weekend’s attempted military coup in Turkey and what it means for both Middle East and European stability given the country’s strategic geographic location.

Data wise we are limited to US NAHB Housing Index seen flat in Jul while speakers include the Bank of England’s (BoE) Weale, the ECB’s Linde and Villeroy while the meeting of EU foreign ministers is likely to find its agenda up in the air after the weekend’s events.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • British Land sees some investors taking more cautious approach after EU vote
  • Sportech says U.S. digital president resigns
  • Merck says EMA accepts cladribine for review marketing authorisation application
  • Japan's SoftBank agrees $32 billion deal to buy Britain's ARM Holdings
  • AstraZeneca's lung cancer drug ‘Tagrisso’ meets main goal in late – stage trial
  • Ultra Electronics wins acoustic countermeasure contract worth up to $34 mln
  • Oil prices rise as market shrugs off Turkey coup bid
  • Conroy Gold & Natural Resources New gold zones intersected in Glenish drilling
  • Europa Oil & Gas Update on Licensing Option 16/19, Offshore Ireland
  • Rio Tinto Iron Ore Output Seen Up; Coal, Copper Weaker -- Market Talk
  • Ultra Electronics Wins U.S. Navy Supply Deal
  • GlaxoSmithKline Could See China Boost on Cervical Cancer Vaccine -- Market Talk

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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