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Morning Report - 18 August 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Barratt Developments PLC 448.2 6.5 1.5 -28.4
CRH PLC 2535 23.0 0.9 28.6
Whitbread PLC 4035 34.0 0.9 -8.3
BT Group PLC 395.8 3.2 0.8 -16.1
Persimmon PLC 1748 12.0 0.7 -13.8
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Admiral Group PLC 2081 -173.0 -7.7 25.4
London Stock Exchange Group PLC 2797 -84.0 -2.9 1.9
Antofagasta PLC 542.5 -16.0 -2.9 15.6
Fresnillo PLC 1927 -55.0 -2.8 172.2
Anglo American PLC 865.7 -24.3 -2.7 189.1
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,859.2 -34.8 -0.50 9.9
UK 17,758.7 -49.8 -0.28 1.9
FR CAC 40 4,417.7 -42.8 -0.96 -4.7
DE DAX 30 10,537.7 -139.0 -1.30 -1.9
US DJ Industrial Average 30 18,574.0 22.0 0.12 6.6
US Nasdaq Composite 5,228.7 1.6 0.03 4.4
US S&P 500 2,182.2 4.1 0.19 6.8
JP Nikkei 225 16,496.6 -249.1 -1.49 -13.3
HK Hang Seng Index 50 23,067.3 267.5 1.17 5.3
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,507.8 -27.3 -0.49 4.0
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 46.83 0.51 1.09 26.3
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 49.74 0.47 0.95 32.3
Gold ($/oz) 1358.95 1.55 0.11 28.1
Silver ($/oz) 19.82 0.06 0.32 43.4
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.31 0.08 -11.4
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.13 0.13 4.2
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.15 -0.04 -15.0
UK 100 called to open +30pts at 6890

UK 100 : 1-month, 4-hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +25pts at 6885 (ex-div -7.8pts), having bounced from yesterday’s 6847 lows courtesy of a bullish double-bottom reversal. This has cheered those Bulls hopeful of the August rally having legs. Bears, however, remain focused on an overnight failure at 6900 which maintains a trend of falling highs since Monday’s 14-month peak. Add to this a daily RSI turning down from overbought and the potential for a post-Brexit rally reversal may be growing. Watch levels: Bullish 6905, Bearish 6870.

A positive opening call comes after a positive stateside session thanks to continued debate (and thus beneficial delay) by the Federal Reserve about a US rate hike and in spite of a negative performance in Asia overnight. A resulting weaker USD again equating to a stronger Yen keeps the pressure on the BoJ and hindering Nikkei exporters, the index also weighed by some poor trade data. Australia down due to a stronger AUD derived from solid employment data as well as inconclusive Fed minutes.

US equity markets closed with minor gains as investors digested the July FOMC minutes, which showed a general agreement between participants that more evidence of underlying growth in the labour market and economy is required before another rate hike can take place. Inflation was also seen as an issue, but some still said that it would soon be time to hike again - Bullard in particular, who gave his opinion before the minutes were released. Still unlikely in our view.

Crude prices continue to benefit from the weaker USD post-Fed minutes with markets continuing to price in a dovish global economic outlook. Chat from OPEC about production freezes is probably continuing to support the price as traders race to catch the boat before it leaves - in the unlikely but profitable event that it does. Saudi Arabia talking about production hikes likely doesn't help though.

Interest rate sensitive Gold rallied overnight to the ceiling of its narrowing range - again bolstered by the weaker USD. An early morning retreat from resistance could continue towards $1350 but bulls will remain confident, seeing this as a bullish flag consolidation ahead of another leg up and breakout above $1356.

In focus today: UK July Retail Sales will give us the first true full month idea of how the Brexit vote has hit the UK Consumer. Beware the knock-on to UK Index Retail stocks as well as the GBP. Note Eurozone CPI seen taking a dive back to deflation in July although the annual and core measures are seen holding up. It'll be interesting to hear what the ECB minutes have to say about the current inflation, growth and divergent global policy situation.

In the afternoon, the US Philly Fed should have recovered to positive last month before the US Leading Index suggests nothing to sorry about with growth mirroring that in June. This before the Fed's Dudley and Williams deliver more - hopefully helpful -  words of wisdom on the outlook for US monetary policy.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Fresnillo Says First Phase of San Julian Mine Now Operational
  • Evraz Swings to 1H Net Loss But Cautiously Optimistic About Future
  • Kingfisher Reports 8% Rise in Quarterly Sales, Sees No Brexit Impact
  • Glencore Investors Push Savings -- WSJ
  • OFGEM: Relates to National Grid's Energy Transmission Price Controls
  • Tullow Oil's Three Fields in Ghana Deliver First Oil
  • KAZ Minerals Swings to 1H Net Profit but Narrows Copper Output Guidance
  • Polymetal International Raises Interest in Russian Copper-Gold Deposit
  • Thomas Cook Enters New Hotel Sourcing Partnership with Webjet
  • Premier Oil Swings to 1H Pretax Profit, Raises FY Production Guidance

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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