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Morning Report - 18 April 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
SABMiller 4286 67.0 1.6 5.3
Royal Bank of Scotland 235 3.4 1.5 -22.2
Vodafone 229.75 3.0 1.3 4.0
Antofagasta 471 6.0 1.3 0.4
Tesco 179.55 1.9 1.1 20.1
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Travis Perkins 1774 -86.0 -4.6 -10.1
Ashtead 814.5 -34.0 -4.0 -27.2
Berkeley Group 2862 -114.0 -3.8 -22.4
Intu Properties 296.5 -10.9 -3.6 -6.6
Kingfisher 357.3 -10.9 -3.0 8.4
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,343.8 -21.4 -0.34 1.6
UK 16,910.8 -90.6 -0.53 -3.0
FR CAC 40 4,495.2 -16.3 -0.36 -3.1
DE DAX 30 10,051.6 -42.1 -0.42 -6.4
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,897.5 -29.0 -0.16 2.7
US Nasdaq Composite 4,938.2 -7.7 -0.16 -1.4
US S&P 500 2,080.7 -2.1 -0.10 1.8
JP Nikkei 225 16,279.3 -568.8 -3.38 -14.5
HK Hang Seng Index 48 21,034.8 -281.7 -1.32 -4.0
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,138.4 -19.1 -0.37 -3.0
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 38.68 -1.72 -4.25 4.3
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 41.44 -1.40 -3.26 10.2
Gold ($/oz) 1237.75 1.95 0.16 16.7
Silver ($/oz) 16.19 -0.06 -0.38 17.1
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.42 -0.33 -3.9
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.13 -0.02 3.9
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.26 -0.29 -7.5
UK 100 Index called to open -65pts at 6280

UK 100 Index: 1-month chart

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -65pts at 6280, continuing to track back from last week’s 4-month highs as the weekend’s failed Doha oil production freeze talks weigh on sentiment. The Bullish will be eyeing the 6220 break-out point closely for whether it serves as support to keep the uptrend from 2016 lows alive and well. The Bears will of course be hoping for that level and rising support at 6200 to give way. Watch levels: Bullish 6295, Bearish 6265.

The negative opening call comes after a not wholly unsurprising failure by OPEC and Russia to agree an oil production freeze to counter the global supply glut and buoy prices. The blame lies with Saudi Arabia which maintains its insistence that regional rival and non-attendee Iran adheres to any plan despite the latter rejecting the idea as it pumps at full pelt to recover from years of sanctions.

Watch for renewed oil price volatility, with the next major OPEC event not being until the cartel’s semi-annual Vienna meeting in June. The prospect of this has evaporated yet more of the optimism from last week that stemmed from solid China macro data (good data = growth), reassurances from the US Fed about gentle monetary policy normalisation and sluggish US data (bad data = low rates for longer). Even good news about Chinese Property Prices has failed to inspire, despite soaring prices adding to Citigroup’s call that the worst of the commodity rout may be over.

Mid-single digit percentage drops in the price of both US and Brent Crude has weighed on Asian stocks as we kick off the new week with the key Energy sector taking a knock in both Japan and Australia. The  former is also suffering from further Earthquake aftershocks and persistent Yen strength following G20 finance ministers suggesting opposition to intervening to counter the currency's unwelcome strength on Nikkei exporters.

US bourses closed down on Friday and will surely remain under pressure today along with global peers. The Energy sector of course led Friday’s late declines - correctly foreseeing Sunday’s failed Doha negotiations it would seem.

US macro data has also disappointed of late, Friday being no exception with Michigan Sentiment posting its lowest reading since October, Industrial production its greatest pullback since February and the New York Fed’s growth forecasts being cut for both Q1 and Q2 this year. The Fed’s Evans nonetheless sees June as a potential rate hike option, which would now require an impressive turnaround in the data.

Crude prices went into freefall - sinking by up to 5% after the failed production freeze meeting (Our sympathies go out to the poor Saudi delegates who flew all that way in their gold plated concorde for nothing). For what it’s worth, a strike by oil workers in Kuwait may be helping to stem oil price losses this morning though.

Gold is benefitting from safe haven seeking following the equity sell-off and crude weakness. Resistance around $1240 this morning while rising support at $1228 should provide buoyancy if the price falls as contrarians start buying equities

In focus today we have little to get our teeth into in terms of macro data bar US Housing data mid-afternoon, although the Fed’s Dudley could always spice things up after lunch and his colleague Kashkari after the European close. This week we also have the European Central Bank (ECB) policy update along with  Eurozone PMI Manufacturing and Services.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

 

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • ARM Holdings Cut to Hold From Buy by Jefferies
  • Reckitt Benckiser Had A Good Start To The Yr
  • Centrica Returns To Profitability In UK Business in 1Q
  • Australia Shortlists BAE Systems, Fincantieri, Navantia to Build 9 Frigates
  • Interserve Wins 5-Year, GBP230M Contract with Ministry of Defense
  • Aggreko Wins Contract to Supply 200MW of Power in Zimbabwe
  • Creston says financial performance remains in line with previous statement
  • Det norske acquires licenses from Centrica
  • Staffline Group says group finance director to leave
  • Rockhopper amends terms for acquisition of Beach Energy's Egypt assets
  • Britain's Centrica loses more customers in first quarter
  • Reckitt Benckiser affirms full – year targets
  • Charles Stanley says Anthony Scott to step down as director
  • John Menzies appoints Giles Wilson as CFO
  • Spirent appoints Paula Bell as CFO
  • Plus500 Q1 revenue $85.2 mln versus $82.1 mln
  • Centrica says UK home energy supply accounts down 1.5 pct in Q1
  • Britain's Oncimmune Holdings says to float on AIM
  • Stock Spirits says CEO Heath to step down
  • Aggreko to supply 200 mw of power in Zimbabwe
  • Alinda Capital Partners to buy Energy Assets Group for $280 mln
  • Interserve wins 230 mln stg UK defence infrastructure contract
  • Oil prices tumble 5 pct after producers fail to coordinate output

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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