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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Weir Group PLC | 1661 | 67.0 | 4.2 | -10.3 |
| Pearson PLC | 1263 | 35.0 | 2.9 | 6.1 |
| Smiths Group PLC | 1164 | 25.0 | 2.2 | 6.0 |
| Ashtead Group PLC | 1078 | 21.0 | 2.0 | -6.4 |
| Wolseley PLC | 4384 | 80.0 | 1.9 | 18.9 |
| Anglo American PLC | 890.3 | 15.9 | 1.8 | -25.8 |
| Capita PLC | 1320 | 22.0 | 1.7 | 22.1 |
| RSA Insurance Group PLC | 432.2 | 6.9 | 1.6 | -0.6 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| BP PLC | 422 | -5.1 | -1.2 | 2.7 |
| Fresnillo PLC | 668.5 | -8.0 | -1.2 | -12.7 |
| Randgold Resources Ltd | 4086 | -16.0 | -0.4 | -6.7 |
| United Utilities Group PLC | 882.5 | -2.5 | -0.3 | -3.7 |
| Marks & Spencer Group PLC | 546 | -1.0 | -0.2 | 14.0 |
| AstraZeneca PLC | 4336.5 | -7.0 | -0.2 | -4.8 |
| G4S PLC | 272.3 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -2.0 |
| BG Group PLC | 1076 | -1.0 | -0.1 | 24.4 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,796.5 | 42.7 | 0.63 | 3.5 |
| UK | 17,765.4 | 128.3 | 0.73 | 10.4 |
| FR CAC 40 | 5,121.5 | 74.3 | 1.47 | 19.9 |
| DE DAX 30 | 11,716.8 | 177.1 | 1.54 | 19.5 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 18,120.3 | 70.1 | 0.39 | 1.7 |
| US Nasdaq Composite 100 | 5,163.2 | 64.2 | 1.26 | 9.0 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,124.3 | 16.9 | 0.80 | 3.2 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 20,643.5 | 43.4 | 0.21 | 18.3 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 25,439.8 | 277.0 | 1.10 | 7.8 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,674.0 | 4.4 | 0.08 | 4.9 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) | 50.97 | -0.08 | -0.16 | -5.1 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 57.02 | -0.53 | -0.92 | -1.0 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1143.05 | -0.25 | -0.02 | -3.4 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 14.97 | – | – | -4.6 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.563 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.3 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.090 | 0.00 | 0.12 | -9.9 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.435 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 11.4 |
UK 100 Index called to open flat at 6795, with the uptrend from recent lows still valid and the recent struggle to get above 6800 likely being just a pause before the next up-leg towards May/June highs of 7000. Any pullback likely to find support at the 200-day MA 6750. Updated Watch levels: Bullish 6815, Bearish 6770.
The flat opening call comes despite a positive session in Asia derived from receding concerns on Greece and China (stimulus led equity rebound) which put the spotlight back on the outlook for US interest rates and saw the USD strengthen yet further.
Greek progress as parliamentary approval should allow creditors sign off on the €7bn bridge loan to repay ECB debt on Monday and clear IMF arrears, while the has ECB increased emergency bank lending to Greek banks which could allow them reopen on Monday after three weeks closure.
Note lawmakers in Germany, where another Greek bailout is not welcomed but whose approval is required for final Greek bailout discussions, vote today. This may lead to some market nerves but a preliminary vote by Conservatives saw dissenters fail to disrupt the majority - fear of the unknown of a Grexit scenario appear to be keeping even non-believers in a third bailout onside.
US markets closed higher (note Nasdaq 15yr highs on tech rally) on Greek progress and positive Q2 results from a host of US corporates (Google, Netflix, Citigroup, eBay and Philip Morris) and despite Fed Chair Yellen repeating her Wednesday testimony that rates would rise sometime in 2015. Investors focusing more on the ‘economy getting closer to normal’ element and more positives than negatives.
Asian bourses following Wall St’s lead in trading higher overnight – in fact, posting their best week-long performance since April – with Japan’s Nikkei benefitting from a weak Yen after the US Fed’s Yellen testified hawkishly on Wednesday (USD/JPY went above 124 on Thurs). Japanese exporters were pleased.
Chinese markets went up on hopes of a liquidity injection by the government into the Chinese Development Bank. Greece is likely seen as a ‘non-issue’ in the short term now that talk of an exit from the Euro has been shelved.
Aussie ASX the underperformer in the region, going lower as mining stocks lost recent momentum and this despite Australia’s leading index showing an improvement (positive (+0.2%) for May following a 0.3% decline in April and flat print in March).
In focus today will be the German parliamentary vote (no timeframe, could be late like in Greece with everybody having their say first). Data-wise, the main event will be US Housing Starts and Permits and Consumer Price Inflation which can have a bearing on interest rate outlook. Note the Uni of Michigan sentiment index expected flat.
US light Crude ($50) currently at the floor of a sideways (slightly down trending) channel after retracing Thursday’s modest gains, while Brent ($57) crawling along 8-day rising support with converging falling highs adding pressure. Note divergence in spread between the two benchmarks. Will falling US inventories and higher demand from US refineries help to allay further downside before the weekend, or will risk-off mentality ensue?
Gold ($1144) lower yet again after the German conservatives voted to start talking about the details of a third Greek bailout while Grexit plans were locked away for the time being. So when investors are confident, they sell gold; when they’re worried, they don’t buy it. A strong US Dollar with all this talk of interest rate hikes likely contributing to Gold’s seeming change of purpose of late with the 3-month downtrend intact. Potential for a re-visit of 12-month lows $1132?
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