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Morning Report - 16 March 2015

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Next PLC 7350 -45.0 -0.6 -2.1
Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC 5840 130.0 2.3 0.8
Shire PLC 5525 70.0 1.3 7.1
Whitbread PLC 5335 75.0 1.4 -0.2
Randgold Resources Ltd 4569 -26.0 -0.6 -10.4
AstraZeneca PLC 4557 78.0 1.7 1.8
Wolseley PLC 4101 50.0 1.2 2.8
British American Tobacco PLC 3644 2.5 0.1 -3.0
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Lloyds Banking Group PLC 79 -0.2 -0.3 -1.2
Taylor Wimpey PLC 148.6 0.1 0.1 2.6
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets PLC 204 -3.6 -1.7 2.6
Vodafone Group PLC 218.95 2.1 1.0 -2.6
Old Mutual PLC 222.4 -1.2 -0.5 -1.0
Tesco PLC 232.85 -2.9 -1.2 -5.6
Centrica PLC 237.9 -3.5 -1.5 -3.5
Barclays PLC 250 -4.5 -1.8 -4.9
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,740.6 -20.5 -0.30 2.7
UK 17,109.5 48.4 0.28 6.4
FR CAC 40 5,010.5 23.1 0.46 17.3
DE DAX 30 11,901.6 102.2 0.87 21.4
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,749.3 -145.9 -0.82 -0.4
US Nasdaq Composite 100 4,871.8 -21.5 -0.44 2.9
US S&P 500 2,053.4 -12.6 -0.61 -0.3
JP Nikkei 225 19,246.1 -8.2 -0.04 10.3
HK Hang Seng Index 48 23,912.4 89.2 0.37 1.3
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,797.7 -16.9 -0.29 7.1
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 44.30 -0.70 -1.56 -16.2
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 54.69 -0.80 -1.43 -3.6
Gold ($/oz) 1162.65 4.25 0.37 -2.1
Silver ($/oz) 15.74 0.10 0.64 -0.3
Platinum ($/oz) 1121.10 3.30 0.3 -7.5
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.477 0.16 -5.3
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.053 0.22 -13.2
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.403 -0.05 9.0
UK 100 called to open +17pts at 6770

UK 100 (UKX): 1-month chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 12:30                     USA                       Empire Manufacturing
  • 13:15                     USA                       Industrial Production, Manuf. Production, Capacity Util.
  • 14:00                     USA                       NAHB Housing market Index

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open +17pts at 6770, continuing on a slow and rather volatile recovery from March 2015 lows last week. Watch levels: Bullish 6850, Bearish 6650

The positive open comes after the UK Index was left behind on Friday with French and German bourses rallying late in the session to finish with modest gains, and the GBP/USD currency pair hitting multi-year lows in the afternoon.

US bourses closed in negative territory on Friday as oil prices continued to fall and the USD continued to rally with the dollar basket consolidating its position north of ‘psyche’ level 10,000. All eyes will be on the US Fed this week where we expect the word ‘patient’ to be dropped from the March minutes.

The Fed's 2-day meeting starts Tuesday. More and more investors expect the U.S. central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate sooner rather than later. They will be watching for dovish language, presumably signalled by the absence of the word 'patient.’  Global stock markets have been lifted for several years by ultralow rates and other monetary stimulus - and a Fed rate hike would mark the start of a return to more normal levels for borrowing costs.

Most Asian stock markets were sideways on Monday as investors held back ahead of the US Fed meeting this week that may set the stage for a rate hike. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 climbed 0.1%, still hopeful of more stimulus after disappointing data last week, while the Shanghai Composite was up 2% as comments by China's top economic official also raised hopes of additional stimulus to bolster economic growth. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.2%.

In focus today we have US data with industrial and manufacturing production expected to slow a little – perhaps on account of the Fed meeting this week?

US Light Crude ($44.6) is up a little after dropping below $44 over the weekend, however remains in a downtrend from end-Feb with the bears clearly in control of a volatile marketplace. Another fall in US operational rigs and fears that stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma are about to overflow have weighed considerably on the ‘Black Gold.’ Brent ($55) still in a downwards channel from 26-March with futures for April delivery expiring imminently, pushing down prices.

Gold ($1157) is in a very shallow uptrend from 11-March lows (sub-$1150) with significant progress hindered by the surging dollar basket, which makes the (dollar denominated) yellow metal more expensive to investors using other currencies. News that China, a major market for gold, may apply economic stimulus measures could help buoy the price as we move forward.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • DSM sells polymers, resins stake to CVC for at least 300 mln euros
  • Faroe Petroleum says Shango well to start drilling in Norwegian North Sea
  • PureCircle says H1 sales jump 24 pct
  • Exillon Energy says daily output 17,459 bbl in February
  • AO World chairman sells 1.3 pct stake in firm
  • Britain's Hilltop gas storage import, export capacity reduced
  • Churchill pushes on with $2 bln Indonesia mine fight despite office blaze

 


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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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