Today's Main Events
- 12:30 USA Empire Manufacturing
- 13:15 USA Industrial Production, Manuf. Production, Capacity Util.
- 14:00 USA NAHB Housing market Index
See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations
This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.
| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Next PLC | 7350 | -45.0 | -0.6 | -2.1 |
| Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC | 5840 | 130.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| Shire PLC | 5525 | 70.0 | 1.3 | 7.1 |
| Whitbread PLC | 5335 | 75.0 | 1.4 | -0.2 |
| Randgold Resources Ltd | 4569 | -26.0 | -0.6 | -10.4 |
| AstraZeneca PLC | 4557 | 78.0 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Wolseley PLC | 4101 | 50.0 | 1.2 | 2.8 |
| British American Tobacco PLC | 3644 | 2.5 | 0.1 | -3.0 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Lloyds Banking Group PLC | 79 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -1.2 |
| Taylor Wimpey PLC | 148.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.6 |
| Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets PLC | 204 | -3.6 | -1.7 | 2.6 |
| Vodafone Group PLC | 218.95 | 2.1 | 1.0 | -2.6 |
| Old Mutual PLC | 222.4 | -1.2 | -0.5 | -1.0 |
| Tesco PLC | 232.85 | -2.9 | -1.2 | -5.6 |
| Centrica PLC | 237.9 | -3.5 | -1.5 | -3.5 |
| Barclays PLC | 250 | -4.5 | -1.8 | -4.9 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,740.6 | -20.5 | -0.30 | 2.7 |
| UK | 17,109.5 | 48.4 | 0.28 | 6.4 |
| FR CAC 40 | 5,010.5 | 23.1 | 0.46 | 17.3 |
| DE DAX 30 | 11,901.6 | 102.2 | 0.87 | 21.4 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 17,749.3 | -145.9 | -0.82 | -0.4 |
| US Nasdaq Composite 100 | 4,871.8 | -21.5 | -0.44 | 2.9 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,053.4 | -12.6 | -0.61 | -0.3 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 19,246.1 | -8.2 | -0.04 | 10.3 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 23,912.4 | 89.2 | 0.37 | 1.3 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,797.7 | -16.9 | -0.29 | 7.1 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) | 44.30 | -0.70 | -1.56 | -16.2 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 54.69 | -0.80 | -1.43 | -3.6 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1162.65 | 4.25 | 0.37 | -2.1 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 15.74 | 0.10 | 0.64 | -0.3 |
| Platinum ($/oz) | 1121.10 | 3.30 | 0.3 | -7.5 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.477 | – | 0.16 | -5.3 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.053 | – | 0.22 | -13.2 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.403 | – | -0.05 | 9.0 |
See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations
UK 100 called to open +17pts at 6770, continuing on a slow and rather volatile recovery from March 2015 lows last week. Watch levels: Bullish 6850, Bearish 6650
The positive open comes after the UK Index was left behind on Friday with French and German bourses rallying late in the session to finish with modest gains, and the GBP/USD currency pair hitting multi-year lows in the afternoon.
US bourses closed in negative territory on Friday as oil prices continued to fall and the USD continued to rally with the dollar basket consolidating its position north of ‘psyche’ level 10,000. All eyes will be on the US Fed this week where we expect the word ‘patient’ to be dropped from the March minutes.
The Fed's 2-day meeting starts Tuesday. More and more investors expect the U.S. central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate sooner rather than later. They will be watching for dovish language, presumably signalled by the absence of the word 'patient.’ Global stock markets have been lifted for several years by ultralow rates and other monetary stimulus - and a Fed rate hike would mark the start of a return to more normal levels for borrowing costs.
Most Asian stock markets were sideways on Monday as investors held back ahead of the US Fed meeting this week that may set the stage for a rate hike. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 climbed 0.1%, still hopeful of more stimulus after disappointing data last week, while the Shanghai Composite was up 2% as comments by China's top economic official also raised hopes of additional stimulus to bolster economic growth. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.2%.
In focus today we have US data with industrial and manufacturing production expected to slow a little – perhaps on account of the Fed meeting this week?
US Light Crude ($44.6) is up a little after dropping below $44 over the weekend, however remains in a downtrend from end-Feb with the bears clearly in control of a volatile marketplace. Another fall in US operational rigs and fears that stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma are about to overflow have weighed considerably on the ‘Black Gold.’ Brent ($55) still in a downwards channel from 26-March with futures for April delivery expiring imminently, pushing down prices.
Gold ($1157) is in a very shallow uptrend from 11-March lows (sub-$1150) with significant progress hindered by the surging dollar basket, which makes the (dollar denominated) yellow metal more expensive to investors using other currencies. News that China, a major market for gold, may apply economic stimulus measures could help buoy the price as we move forward.
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