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Morning Report - 15 October 2014

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 339.6 15.5 4.8 -15.4
Johnson Matthey PLC 2876 121.0 4.4 -12.3
ARM Holdings PLC 853 31.0 3.8 -22.4
Sports Direct International PLC 593.5 18.5 3.2 -17.0
Carnival PLC 2213 58.0 2.7 -11.5
Weir Group PLC 2213 58.0 2.7 3.8
Anglo American PLC 1423 35.0 2.5 7.8
IMI PLC 1163 28.0 2.5 -33.3
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Burberry Group PLC 1425 -54.0 -3.7 -6.0
Tullow Oil PLC 518.5 -11.0 -2.1 -39.4
BG Group PLC 1025 -15.0 -1.4 -21.0
Standard Chartered PLC 1086 -13.5 -1.2 -20.2
BP PLC 426.65 -5.3 -1.2 -12.6
Pearson PLC 1137 -10.0 -0.9 -15.2
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The) PLC 357.8 -2.7 -0.8 5.8
Barclays PLC 222 -1.4 -0.6 -18.4
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,392.7 26.4 0.42 -5.3
UK 14,669.8 125.8 0.87 -7.9
FR CAC 40 4,088.3 9.6 0.23 -4.8
DE DAX 30 8,825.2 12.8 0.15 -7.6
US DJ Industrial Average 30 16,315.2 -5.9 -0.04 -1.6
US Nasdaq Composite 100 4,227.2 13.5 0.32 1.2
US S&P 500 1,877.7 3.0 0.16 1.6
JP Nikkei 225 15,069.7 133.2 0.89 -7.5
HK Hang Seng Index 48 23,182.7 134.8 0.58 -0.5
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,245.6 38.2 0.73 -2.0
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 82.08 -0.17 -0.21 -16.7
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 85.35 -1.41 -1.63 -21.7
Gold ($/oz) 1226.15 -3.35 -0.27 2.1
Silver ($/oz) 17.20 -0.12 -0.68 -10.8
Platinum ($/oz) 1265.50 -3.00 -0.24 -7.9
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.591 0.12 -4.0
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.264 0 -8.0
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.259 0.12 4.3
UK 100 called to open -20pts at 6380

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 08:00     EZ           ECB President Draghi speaks
  • 09:30     UK          Unemployment & Earnings
  • 13:30     US           Empire State Manufacturing, Retail Sales, PPI
  • 12:00     US           Bank of America Q3 results
  • 15:00     US           Business inventories
  • 19:00     EZ           ECB President Draghi speaks
  • A/M       US           eBay and Amex Q3 results

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -20pts at 6380 despite a largely positive US close and advances in Asia as bargain hunters stepped in following the steep slides, with weak overnight China inflation data (CPI and PPI) reviving the recent slowdown fears in the world’s #2 economy and Germany’s CPI containing to flat-line adding to deflationary and recessionary concerns in the eurozone.

After all the M&A of late, much fuelled by tax inversion goals, news that AbbVie is reconsidering its merger with Shire after recent US treasury rule changes may take the wind out of some corporate activity. The US equity rebound also lost momentum late in the session as energy names slid with the price of oil, wiping out most of the earlier rally by the major indexes led by industrials, airlines and banks.

Appeasing fears of an early US rate rise, San Francisco Fed President Williams made no change to his mid-2015 forecast despite global growth fears and would consider more QE if the outlook falls. Consensus beating Q3 results from Intel also put some concerned investors at ease, although guidance remains key.

Asia benefiting from poor China data (CPI close to 5yr low) stoking the fires of expectation of further stimulus with Australian miners posting modest gains on demand hopes, Rio Tinto posting a record surge in Q3 iron ore production and hopes that the price of iron ore may have finally bottomed out.

The UK 100 index has been unable to break above our watch level 6400 with macro data flow keeping major indices under pressure. Rising lows from Monday morning, but 6400 been resistance 4 times since last Friday. Our watch levels remain a bullish 6400 and bearish 6300. Germany’s DAX not looking that dissimilar at 8870.

In focus today, UK Jobs report seen improving in September with another drop in Unemployment rate and slight acceleration in wages growth, although still well below inflation. In the afternoon, the US Empire State Manufacturing is forecast to give up quite a bit of ground, adding to recovery concerns, while Retail Sales are seen going negative but PPI and Business Inventories hold their ground. ECB President Draghi speaks and we have results from US financial major Bank of America

In commodities, the safehaven Gold has extended its declines from 4-week highs $1238 after the gains dampened bargain hunting demand amid continued assessment of global monetary policy direction and economic growth concerns which saw the USD gain making commodities more expensive.

Futures prices for Oil have found a modicum of support after posting their biggest one-day drop in two years on signs that production cartel OPEC was unlikely to cut production rates in response to reduced demand forecasts and the stronger USD curbed interest.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

 

Key Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • AU          Consumer Confidence                  Edged higher
  • AU          New Motor Vehicle Sales            Rebounded
  • CN          Inflation                                              Miss, deteriorated
  • JP            Industrial Production                     Deteriorated
  • DE           Consumer Inflation                        Stays weak

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

 

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • SDL says remains confident with FY forecast
  • Connect group FY underlying pretax profit up 0.2 pct
  • BG says oil production starts from Iracema find in Brazil
  • Fresnillo Q3 attributable silver production falls marginally
  • Balfour Beatty names QinetiQ chief Quinn as new CEO
  • Arbuthnot Banking sees FY results marginally ahead of forecast
  • Shire says AbbVie should not renege on merger deal
  • Weir Group to acquire Trio Engineered Products for $220 mln
  • Mears acquires social housing firm Omega for 20 mln stg

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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