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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Merlin Entertainments PLC | 436 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 9.4 |
| Admiral Group PLC | 1613 | 5.0 | 0.3 | 22.0 |
| Fresnillo PLC | 675 | 2.0 | 0.3 | -11.9 |
| Centrica PLC | 210.9 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -24.4 |
| Meggitt PLC | 361.4 | -1.2 | -0.3 | -30.4 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Old Mutual PLC | 155.7 | -18.5 | -10.6 | -18.3 |
| Anglo American PLC | 292.95 | -25.7 | -8.1 | -75.6 |
| BHP Billiton PLC | 694.2 | -39.0 | -5.3 | -50.0 |
| BG Group PLC | 925.8 | -49.8 | -5.1 | 7.0 |
| Royal Dutch Shell PLC | 1460 | -73.5 | -4.8 | -34.6 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 5,952.8 | -135.3 | -2.22 | -9.3 |
| UK | 16,877.3 | -203.0 | -1.19 | 4.9 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,549.6 | -85.5 | -1.84 | 6.5 |
| DE DAX 30 | 10,340.0 | -258.8 | -2.44 | 5.5 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 17,265.3 | -309.5 | -1.76 | -3.1 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 4,933.5 | -111.7 | -2.21 | 4.2 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,012.4 | -39.9 | -1.94 | -2.3 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 18,883.4 | -347.1 | -1.80 | 8.2 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 21,307.9 | -156.2 | -0.73 | -9.7 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 4,928.6 | -100.9 | -2.01 | -8.9 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) | 35.48 | 0.12 | 0.33 | -34.0 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 37.76 | -0.39 | -1.02 | -34.4 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1073.25 | -0.45 | -0.04 | -9.3 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 13.87 | -0.02 | -0.13 | -11.6 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.519 | – | -0.22 | -2.5 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.096 | – | -0.26 | -9.4 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.386 | – | 0.06 | 7.7 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 Index called to open +15pts at 5970, having recovered from late Friday lows of 5900 following a volatile week and bearish finish which saw us breach 6000 and the trend of rising lows from end-August. Note support kicking at round number 5900 just above late September lows, but index still struggling under accelerated falling highs from 3 Dec which could hinder progress around 6000. Watch levels: Bullish 6060, Bearish 5925.
The positive opening call comes with technical caveats (see above), after bouncing from 2.5 month lows following a two-week risk-off rout fuelled by falling commodity prices (especially oil; 7yr lows) and jitters ahead of the Fed’s likely rate-hike this week. Note also China adding late fuel to the fire suggesting it might prefer to peg its Yuan to a basket of currencies rather just the USD, suggesting the greenback’s recent strength hindering growth in the slowing economy and that things might be even worse than thought amid the transition from exporter to consumer and thus require further devaluation. Another round of currency wars necessary?
Largely positive China weekend data giving a slight boost to sentiment (Industrial Production gears up, Retail Sales accelerate; things stabilising?), but as always being taken with a pinch of salt. Asian stocks mostly down after their worst week since September and following 2% stateside losses, as worries about a Fed rate rise increase given the recent market downturn and commodity rout which will only go to prolong the lid being kept on what most central bankers have been banking on showing signs recovery soon - inflation. Could fears of no-flation for longer and China woes see the Fed hold off again as it did in September?
Could Beijing's suggestion about pegging the Yuan to a basket rather than the USD, and the currency falling to a fresh 4yr low, see Yellen & Co spooked again? Or after the Draghi disappointment, has the issue of credibility become much to risk? China equities are the regional exception, benefiting from the weekend data, the weak currency helping exporters and the resurfacing of the Chinese Warren Buffet.
In focus today will be the build up to the Fed policy decision on Wednesday as well as the fallout from the Chinese weekend data and Beijing's desire to devalue its currency further to remain competitive as growth slows. It is hoped that Eurozone Industrial Production shows a rebound in October while in the absence of Fed speakers (communication blackout; thank goodness) we have several ECB speakers slated to speak.
Oil prices still troubled to say the least (7yr lows) with Iran adding to global oversupply fears, Russia saying it is planning for $40/barrel and China’s currency suggestions adding to fears about economic weakness and waning global demand for the commodity. A tumbling US rig count offered no support.
Gold made it as far as $1080 before turning back as the safehaven struggles with a strong USD, divergent monetary policy outlook and uncertainty about the zero-yielding safehaven’s worth.
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