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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Smiths Group PLC | 1051 | 26.0 | 2.5 | -4.3 |
| Coca-Cola HBC AG | 1499 | 26.0 | 1.8 | 22.1 |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group SA | 570 | 7.5 | 1.3 | 17.3 |
| Unilever PLC | 2817 | 31.0 | 1.1 | 7.2 |
| Associated British Foods PLC | 3379 | 36.0 | 1.1 | 7.2 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Glencore PLC | 121.15 | -8.0 | -6.2 | -59.5 |
| Anglo American PLC | 691.7 | -34.8 | -4.8 | -42.4 |
| Rolls-Royce Group PLC | 726 | -29.5 | -3.9 | -16.6 |
| Antofagasta PLC | 576.5 | -19.5 | -3.3 | -23.4 |
| Ashtead Group PLC | 1011 | -34.0 | -3.3 | -12.2 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,371.2 | -45.0 | -0.70 | -3.0 |
| UK | 16,987.0 | -99.0 | -0.58 | 5.6 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,688.7 | -12.7 | -0.27 | 9.7 |
| DE DAX 30 | 10,119.8 | 23.2 | 0.23 | 3.2 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 17,131.8 | 47.3 | 0.28 | -3.9 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 4,838.6 | 8.2 | 0.17 | 2.2 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,017.5 | 2.6 | 0.13 | -2.0 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 18,240.7 | -198.0 | -1.07 | 4.5 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 22,635.8 | -95.2 | -0.42 | -4.1 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,202.9 | -30.0 | -0.57 | -3.8 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) | 47.43 | -0.09 | -0.18 | -11.7 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 50.15 | -1.53 | -2.95 | -12.9 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1154.60 | -6.70 | -0.58 | -2.4 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 15.71 | -0.10 | -0.65 | 0.1 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.532 | – | -0.1 | -1.7 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.137 | – | 0.2 | -6.0 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.347 | – | -0.28 | 4.6 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 Index called to open -10pts at 6360, a touch above the 6350 lows of yesterday but still in a down channel from the highs of Friday where it encountered resistance at the 50% retrace of the April-Aug decline. Nonetheless, after a rebound of 10% some consolidation and thus fall back from highs or sideways shift is to be expected. So long as we stay above 6300, the uptrend stays alive towards June falling highs at 6600. Updated watch levels: Bullish 6420, Bearish 6340.
The only slightly negative opening call is in spite of Chinese Imports extending their declines to an 11th straight month (and contraction worsening) stressing the global (and domestic) headwinds facing the world’s #2 economy as it rebalances from export to consumption-led growth. Some solace being sought in better than expected (less bad, improved) export contraction and a record trade surplus which should offset some worries about capital outflows.
The fires of worry about a slowing China, especially ahead of Q3 GDP data next Monday, are likely to burn ever stronger today and fan the flames of fed rate hike uncertainty, even if it should add to the weight of evidence against a US rate hike and boost hopes of more government/PBOC stimulus being forthcoming.
The China data has put the boot into commodities (China needing less, for both imports and exports) as well Asian stocks which have dropped back from 7-week highs with energy and materials leading the declines. Equities in Japan off their 6-week high post holiday with energy reacting to yesterday's sharp pull-back in the oil price on OPEC output data.
US markets closed mixed amid quiet trading for Columbus Day with energy and materials hurting positive momentum while after the close the Fed's Brainard said the Fed shouldn't hike until risks to the US economy diminish, and while US outlook is good the risks from abroad are tilted to the downside.
On the corporate front, note SABMiller (SAB) has reached a 4400p cash per share agreement in principle with AB InBev (BUD) on the terms of a possible offer. In banking world, note Barclays (BARC) looking set to name former JPMorgan investment banker Jes Staley as replacement CEO for the ousted Anthony Jenkins. Another investment banker? Another Diamond? Payments processor Worldpay (WPG) kicks of conditional trading for London IPO today priced at 240p/share.
In focus today we have UK September inflation data at 9.30am with expectations for nothing to write home about although at least not deflationary. German ZEW Surveys are seen falling in October while US NFIB Small Business Optimism is seen flat. Several BoE and Fed speakers on the roster today while JPMorgan kicks off banks earnings season after the US close.
Gold has dropped back from a 3-month high $1169 on profit-taking after a strong rally on expectations of a delayed Fed rate hike resulting in a weaker USD. Nonetheless, Gold still above the $1150 mark and above the 8-month trendline of falling highs it broke above late last week. Supportive?
Oil has been weak overnight on OPEC output at a 3.5yr high which may put pressure on metals after Oil's recent breakout helped the metals gain ground over the last week. A weaker USD is providing little help. The weak China data will only add to pessimism from uninspiring China Crude imports last month which heightened fears of global oversupply.
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