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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Next PLC | 4712 | 178.0 | 3.9 | -35.4 |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group SA | 376.1 | 13.4 | 3.7 | -38.4 |
| Marks & Spencer Group PLC | 332 | 10.5 | 3.3 | -26.6 |
| Travis Perkins PLC | 1475 | 46.0 | 3.2 | -25.2 |
| Whitbread PLC | 3887 | 119.0 | 3.2 | -11.7 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Old Mutual PLC | 197.7 | -11.6 | -5.5 | 10.5 |
| Glencore PLC | 221.9 | -6.1 | -2.7 | 145.3 |
| Capita PLC | 584 | -14.5 | -2.4 | -51.7 |
| Fresnillo PLC | 1647 | -38.0 | -2.3 | 132.6 |
| BHP Billiton PLC | 1239 | -28.0 | -2.2 | 63.0 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 7,070.9 | -26.6 | -0.38 | 13.3 |
| UK | 18,073.2 | 94.3 | 0.52 | 3.7 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,471.7 | -25.5 | -0.57 | -3.6 |
| DE DAX 30 | 10,577.2 | -46.9 | -0.44 | -1.5 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 18,128.8 | -200.3 | -1.09 | 4.0 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 5,246.8 | -81.9 | -1.54 | 4.8 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,136.7 | -26.9 | -1.24 | 4.5 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 16,901.3 | -123.5 | -0.73 | -11.2 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 23,313.7 | -235.8 | -1.00 | 6.4 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,474.6 | -5.2 | -0.09 | 3.4 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 51.00 | 0.25 | 0.48 | 37.6 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 52.68 | 0.19 | 0.36 | 40.1 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1257.65 | 1.35 | 0.11 | 18.6 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 17.58 | 0.04 | 0.21 | 27.2 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.23 | – | 0.1 | -16.6 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.10 | – | -0.18 | 1.6 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.11 | – | 0.26 | -18.0 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 Index called to open -20pts at 7050, in a downtrend from yesterday’s intraday all-time highs (7130), but sitting on 7-day supportive rising lows at 7050. While still in a 1-month uptrend, Bulls will be looking for 7050 to hold up to offer a platform for another attempt at a fresh all-time closing high (>7104). Bears want a test if not breach of 7050 to help deliver a retreat towards 7000. Watch levels: Bullish 7075, Bearish 7040.
Calls for a negative open come as Asian equities follow Europe and the US lower after aluminium giant Alcoa misfired the starting pistol for US Q3 earnings season. With the banking sector en vogue for all the wrong reasons the moment, this has created jitters about results from the likes of Citigroup, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan on Friday. Especially with Fed minutes looming tonight.
More GBP volatility didn’t help overnight, with another sharp sell-off only reinforcing Brexit fears although a strong recovery has ensued after PM Theresa May backed down on offering a parliamentary vote over her Brexit terms and reports of the UK being able to pay for access to the single market.
Overnight in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei is underperforming despite an oil price rebound with Materials stocks lower in spite of improved Machine orders. Sentiment perhaps dented by Yen strength versus GBP (despite dovish BoJ comment) outweighing weakness versus a very strong USD Basket. The Samsung debacle continues to weigh on the region. Australia’s ASX outperforming (breakeven), but weighed by Materials and Energy stocks hindered by a strong USD and doubts about an OPEC/Russia production freeze, never mind a cut.
US equities closed sharply lower yesterday as earnings season began with a disappointing showing for aluminium producer Alcoa. Fears that Republican infighting could lead to a Democratic sweep of congress prompted the Healthcare sector to lead the way for losses amid heightened expectations for a December Fed rate hike, now standing at 75% probability, keeping the dollar strong.
Crude Oil prices still a way off Monday’s highs although holding steady above $50 and $52 per barrel for US and Brent crude respectively following a sell off yesterday afternoon. Conflicting statements of intent from the Russian oil minister and the head of Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer, caused a decline in prices yesterday as investors continue to remain sceptical with regards to a potential production freeze or cut in November this year by OPEC.
Gold continues to trade in a sideways channel, hindered by USD strength, in the run up to this evening’s release of the September FOMC meeting. Should the minutes show a strong difference of opinion between the three dissenting members and the rest of the committee, the price of the monetary policy sensitive metal could test key support at $1250.
In focus today are September Fed FOMC minutes due to the high level of uncertainty surrounding the timing of the next US rate rise. December, in-line with 75% market-implied probability? Hawkish or dovish, the USD is likely to react. US equity indices may move too (Dow, S&P)
This morning French Consumer Price Inflation expected confirmed as deflationary in September albeit having accelerated on an annual basis to its best in two years. Eurozone Industrial Production is forecast to have rebounded in August from its weakest month in nearly 3yr lows. Both could move the EUR.
In the afternoon, US JOLTS Job Openings may help with views on the US Labour market which could influence the USD and the US indices (Dow, S&P).
Throughout the day we have a host of speakers including the Bank of England’s Cunliffe, the Fed’s Dudley and George in the afternoon followed by EU President Juncker at the European close. The evening sees the Fed’s FOMC minutes published before the ECB’s Mersch speaks around the US close. All have potential to move their respective currencies (GBP, USD, EUR).
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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
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