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Morning Report - 12 April 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Anglo American PLC 585.1 37.9 6.9 95.4
Glencore PLC 141.5 4.7 3.4 56.4
Fresnillo PLC 961 28.0 3.0 35.7
BHP Billiton PLC 778.2 17.7 2.3 2.4
Rio Tinto PLC 2030.5 43.0 2.2 2.6
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Berkeley Group Holdings (The) PLC 3000 -124.0 -4.0 -18.7
Taylor Wimpey PLC 179.8 -6.4 -3.4 -11.5
Persimmon PLC 1995 -69.0 -3.3 -1.6
Barratt Developments PLC 534 -13.0 -2.4 -14.7
Intertek Group PLC 3162 -68.0 -2.1 13.9
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,200.1 -4.3 -0.07 -0.7
UK 16,778.8 -50.9 -0.30 -3.7
FR CAC 40 4,312.6 9.5 0.22 -7.0
DE DAX 30 9,683.0 60.7 0.63 -9.9
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,556.5 -20.5 -0.12 0.8
US Nasdaq Composite 4,833.4 -17.3 -0.36 -3.5
US S&P 500 2,042.0 -5.6 -0.27 -0.1
JP Nikkei 225 15,939.3 188.2 1.19 -16.3
HK Hang Seng Index 48 20,531.5 90.7 0.44 -6.3
AU S&P/ASX 200 4,974.4 42.9 0.87 -6.1
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 40.18 -0.30 -0.73 8.4
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 42.63 -0.22 -0.5 13.4
Gold ($/oz) 1256.35 -2.85 -0.23 18.5
Silver ($/oz) 15.86 -0.06 -0.39 14.7
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.42 0.07 -3.3
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.14 -0.01 5.1
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.25 0.1 -8.0
UK 100 called to open flat at 6200

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open flat at 6200 with a week-long rising channel and a more recent area of support around 6175 encouraging to bulls looking for the index to continue creeping north. A pullback to the channel floor shouldn’t scupper bullish sentiment, but a break below it would make further declines towards 6140 and 6110 a possibility. Watch levels: Bullish 6220, Bearish 6150.

The flat opening call comes despite a positive Asian session led by Japan’s Nikkei after the BoJ said it would take more action to weaken the Yen if needed. European equity markets are likely preferring to view the forthcoming US earnings barrage with caution, even if UK internet retailer ASOS impressed with its Q1 update this morning.

Indeed,  US bourses slipped into the red towards the end of the US trading session, a fitting prelude to Alcoa’s disappointing earnings report which confirmed investor worries about the forthcoming results season. They would have hoped for (record?) low expectations to have been surpassed, so this isn’t a great start!.

The Fed’s bank basher, Kaplan, spoke. He wasn’t in bank bashing mode though, talking rate hikes instead. He’s open minded about the June meeting as a potential date, but current data doesn’t support any action on interest rates right now.

Oil prices staged another rally yesterday and are once more consolidating on profit taking this morning. With prices still buoyed by all this Doha chatter, consensus now sees the meeting shortening the period over which otherwise pure market forces might bring balance back to the oil market. Still, there’s plenty of scope for the mood to turn sour. Brent currently at $42.8, US Crude at $40.3.

Gold is also consolidating after making a new 10-week high overnight. $1260 today’s key level, and potential for more upside if markets get the jitters about earnings in the equity space this week. The big US banks will be the ones to watch.

On the Macro front today we’ve got German inflation seen flat, while that for the UK is seen ticking up a little. US NFIB small business optimism is also seen improving. Speech-wise, we’re due to hear from German Chancellor Merkel and a Fed trio of Harker, Williams and Lacker.

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Nanoco Group H1 pretax loss steepens
  • Gulf Keystone Petroleum gets $15mn gross payment from KRG
  • Galliford Try issues statement on Edinburgh schools closure
  • Genel Energy notes KRG's March payment on Tawke field
  • Michael Page reports 3.6% rise in Q1 gross profit
  • ASOS on track to hit year targets as H1 profit rises
  • CMA refers Breedon's acquisition of Hope for in – depth investigation
  • Oxford Instruments reiterates FY guidance
  • Whitbread names Dominic Paul as new Costa MD
  • Lonmin says CFO Scott to step down
  • Tesco to sell stake in online retail Lazada to Alibaba for $129mn
  • Ultra Electronics wins $9.3mn contract with Raytheon
  • Oil firm DNO gets $20mn payment from Iraq's Tawke field
  • Shell CEO says may sell some North Sea assets to improve portfolio
  • Nomura to cut around 500 – 600 jobs in Europe cash equities pullback

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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