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Morning Report - 11 December 2015

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Glencore PLC 88.9 5.8 7.0 -70.3
TUI AG 1173 52.0 4.6 9.6
Centrica PLC 211.5 5.4 2.6 -24.2
Lloyds Banking Group PLC 72.04 1.4 1.9 -5.0
Fresnillo PLC 673 10.5 1.6 -12.1
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Sports Direct International PLC 592.5 -73.0 -11.0 -16.7
Old Mutual PLC 174.2 -21.2 -10.9 -8.6
Smiths Group PLC 950 -36.5 -3.7 -13.5
Next PLC 7500 -230.0 -3.0 10.0
3i Group PLC 476 -11.2 -2.3 5.7
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,088.1 -38.6 -0.63 -7.3
UK 17,080.3 -59.6 -0.35 6.2
FR CAC 40 4,635.1 -2.4 -0.05 8.5
DE DAX 30 10,598.9 6.4 0.06 8.1
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,574.8 82.5 0.47 -1.4
US Nasdaq Composite 5,045.2 22.3 0.44 6.5
US S&P 500 2,052.2 4.6 0.23 -0.3
JP Nikkei 225 19,230.5 183.9 0.97 10.2
HK Hang Seng Index 48 21,525.3 -179.3 -0.83 -8.8
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,029.5 -8.3 -0.16 -7.1
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 36.56 -0.08 -0.2 -31.9
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 39.58 -0.10 -0.25 -31.3
Gold ($/oz) 1069.05 -2.35 -0.22 -9.7
Silver ($/oz) 14.09 -0.01 -0.09 -10.2
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.514 -0.14 -2.8
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.094 -0.03 -9.6
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.383 -0.11 7.4
UK 100 called to open -15pts at 6075

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -15pts at 6075 having traded sideways overnight after an up-and-down session yesterday, unable make headway above 6100. Still hindered by falling trend since 3 December double-top highs, although trying its best to engineer a northerly break at the apex of a 2-day narrowing trend. Watch levels: Bullish 6105, Bearish 6050.

The negative opening call comes amid a mixed session in Asia overnight, echoing yesterday's European close, and in spite of a positive US finish. Sentiment hurt by Oil taking another leg down (worst week since March thanks to a fragmented), although a USD Index bounce has failed to hurt commodities, metal prices off their lows. Risk-off into the last week-end before Fed lift-off?

Asian equities look set for their worst week since September as the oil price leaked further. While investors position themselves ahead of a wholly expected Fed tightening they also await an update on Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Production over the weekend to gauge the strength of world’s #2 economy’s transition from export- to consumption-led.

Japan’s Nikkei posting gains after a hat-trick of losses from the commodity rout, helped by the USD rebound erasing some of the recent JPY strength that has hindered exporters. Chinese stocks weak after another business titan disappeared (they usually reappear after ‘questioning’) added to worries about slowing growth, a weak Yuan currency (4.5yr lows) and aggressive anti-corruption measures.

Australia’s ASX around breakeven, with energy dented by oil price weakness and miners held back by low commodity prices and painful adjustment to new normal (slower global growth and lower demand). Note Moody's cutting Brazilian iron ore giant Vale's debt rating close to junk and put Anglo American (AAL) under review for another downgrade. However some support for stocks downunder from AUD giving up some of yesterday’s jobs report infused gains.

US bourses snapped their three day losing streak yesterday to finish in positive territory although gains were limited with investors nervous as crude prices continued to fall. Despite what this means for inflation, 90% of economists are now convinced that a rate hike will happen next week, saying the Fed will lose credibility if it doesn’t act this time. But we say it will also lose credibility if it hikes now and has to backtrack in 2016. The US central bank needs to make the right decision, not one that’s based on upholding its reputation!

In corporate news, note 97% acceptance of the Standard Chartered (STAN) $5.1bn rights issue, while M&A talk (US Global Payments in talks to buy Heartland Payments Systems) and an FT article about cash on the wane could give newly London-listed Worldpay (WPG) a boost.

In focus today will be US Retail Sales  seen advancing in November and Producer Price inflation showing a welcome easing in deflationary pressures for the although this may be short-lived given the recent commodity price rout. US Business Inventories seen reporting slower growth in October, but Consumer Confidence ticking up. Watch ECB chat from Coeure and Likanen.

Most news stories this morning are about crude oil, whatever the headline. Prices are still in decline with Brent now discounted to a very reasonable $39.99. We expect a little pop back above $40 on bargain hunting today, but there’s currently no end in sight for the wider downtrends in Brent and WTI. More discounts to come in the Xmas sales?

Gold seen to be tracking oil lower (did I mention oil getting the blame for everything this morning?!) with falling resistance since 4 Dec proving a real hurdle for the yellow metal. Potential for some risk-off gains today though with the USD Basket off its overnight highs.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

 

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Standard Chartered completes $5b rights issue
  • Bellway says will build 10 pct more homes in year ending July 31
  • Ladbrokes says Richard Snow to be acting CFO from Feb
  • SThree estimates FY pretax profit in line with market consensus
  • Plus500 plans to take on new customers in UK in January
  • Carillion wins facilities management contract from Arriva UK trains
  • Lonmin says $400mn rights issue undersubscribed
  • JKX's second-biggest shareholder seeks board shake-up
  • Petra Diamonds rakes in $86.2m in second auction this year

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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