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Morning Report - 11 May 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Capita 1078 54.0 5.3 -10.8
Anglo American 585.8 26.3 4.7 95.6
Standard Chartered 495.95 18.6 3.9 -12.0
Barclays 163.3 4.9 3.1 -25.4
TUI 1068 31.0 3.0 -11.8
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Taylor Wimpey 180.3 -3.7 -2.0 -11.2
Associated British Foods 3113 -55.0 -1.7 -6.9
Paddy Power Betfair 8940 -145.0 -1.6 -1.6
Berkeley Group 2943 -41.0 -1.4 -20.2
Travis Perkins 1829 -23.0 -1.2 -7.3
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,156.7 41.8 0.68 -1.4
UK 16,724.4 37.3 0.22 -4.1
FR CAC 40 4,338.2 15.4 0.36 -6.4
DE DAX 30 10,045.4 64.9 0.65 -6.5
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,928.3 222.3 1.26 2.9
US Nasdaq Composite 4,809.9 59.7 1.26 -3.9
US S&P 500 2,084.4 25.7 1.25 2.0
JP Nikkei 225 16,597.9 32.8 0.20 -12.8
HK Hang Seng Index 50 20,105.8 -136.9 -0.68 -8.3
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,378.5 35.7 0.67 1.6
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 44.45 0.06 0.14 19.9
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 45.35 0.19 0.41 20.6
Gold ($/oz) 1272.45 5.95 0.47 20.0
Silver ($/oz) 17.27 0.14 0.83 24.9
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.44 -0.03 -1.9
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.14 0.08 4.8
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.27 -0.09 -6.4
UK 100 Index called -5pts at 6150

UK Index Index: 3-week chart

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open -5pts at 6150, the index tightening into the apex of a narrowing (and normally continuation) pattern, which could see the end-April downtrend return us to recent lows. Bears hoping for a breach of 3-day rising lows. Conversely, a break above yesterday's highs and 6200 would extend the reversal from Friday’s near 2-month lows, reviving hopes that 6430 April highs can be revisited. Watch levels: Bullish 6185, Bearish 6135.

A negative open is anticipated following a mixed Asian session as bullishness waned from a positive US close where energy and financials lead the way. Once again, a strong Yen hasn’t helped Nikkei exporters overnight after the US dollar basket came off its highs. Although commodities prices regaining poise has helped Chinese and Aussie names even if oil prices have lost some of their bounce momentum on Nigerian supply concerns.

Global growth concerns persist after weak European data and Goldman Sachs' call that a USD slump is over could keep the all-important raw materials and miners under pressure. US macro data  of late can hardly be considered conducive of a rate rise though, and we maintain our belief that no hikes will come in 2016 with too many hurdles ahead (Brexit, US election).

US bourses rallied on Tuesday, with energy and materials leading gains after the Chinese government moved to inject some economic stimulus (5tn renminbi / $722bn) into the world’s 2nd largest economy. Oil prices went higher on that and those short term supply disruptions in Canada and Libya, though most Canadian oil sands production is set to be back online in the coming days or weeks.

Crude stockpile data from the API failing to offset overnight gains with rising US inventories, though crude prices are off their highs this morning ahead of another print - this time from the US Government (EIA) - that could tip the balance to the downside.

Gold has edged higher this morning as the USD pulls back - the key level to watch on the Dollar Basket being support at 94.0 with Momentum having turned down again in negative territory. A break below would boost Gold further, however there’s not much in the way of fresh economic woe this morning to provide buoyancy on safe haven grounds.

In focus today will be UK Industrial Production after poor reads for Germany, France and Italy. As the Brexit debate intensifies deliverance of a consensus rebound could help the leave camp. Thereafter the UK NIESR 3-month read for GDP is of interest given the group cut its estimate for 2016 this week. And then US Oil inventories are sure to excite those watching the price of a barrel. Speakers today include Osborne and Merkel.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Airbus developing a commercial launcher for mini – satellites
  • Compass confident on full year on strong North America growth
  • Credit checker Experian's full – year profit flat at $1.1 bln
  • Renishaw says Q3 revenue falls to £109.6m
  • John Wood Group says market conditions remain challenging in 2016
  • Premier Oil's operating costs fall more than expected as cuts pay off, full – year production could exceed guidance
  • Melrose says trading in line with expectations
  • William Hill says trading remains in line with previous guidance
  • Purplebricks says enjoying strong trading in second half
  • TUI Group says plans to sell specialist unit
  • Barratt Development confident on outlook in 'strong' market
  • JRP total new business sales -4% in March quarter
  • Diageo's Blazquez to step down from executive committee
  • National Express on track to meet full – year profit forecast
  • BHP Billiton joins Rio in shifting focus to growth
  • Oil dips on record U.S. inventories; Canada output to improve soon
  • London copper near one – month trough amid China worries

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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