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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Capita | 1078 | 54.0 | 5.3 | -10.8 |
| Anglo American | 585.8 | 26.3 | 4.7 | 95.6 |
| Standard Chartered | 495.95 | 18.6 | 3.9 | -12.0 |
| Barclays | 163.3 | 4.9 | 3.1 | -25.4 |
| TUI | 1068 | 31.0 | 3.0 | -11.8 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Taylor Wimpey | 180.3 | -3.7 | -2.0 | -11.2 |
| Associated British Foods | 3113 | -55.0 | -1.7 | -6.9 |
| Paddy Power Betfair | 8940 | -145.0 | -1.6 | -1.6 |
| Berkeley Group | 2943 | -41.0 | -1.4 | -20.2 |
| Travis Perkins | 1829 | -23.0 | -1.2 | -7.3 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,156.7 | 41.8 | 0.68 | -1.4 |
| UK | 16,724.4 | 37.3 | 0.22 | -4.1 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,338.2 | 15.4 | 0.36 | -6.4 |
| DE DAX 30 | 10,045.4 | 64.9 | 0.65 | -6.5 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 17,928.3 | 222.3 | 1.26 | 2.9 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 4,809.9 | 59.7 | 1.26 | -3.9 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,084.4 | 25.7 | 1.25 | 2.0 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 16,597.9 | 32.8 | 0.20 | -12.8 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 20,105.8 | -136.9 | -0.68 | -8.3 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,378.5 | 35.7 | 0.67 | 1.6 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 44.45 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 19.9 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 45.35 | 0.19 | 0.41 | 20.6 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1272.45 | 5.95 | 0.47 | 20.0 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 17.27 | 0.14 | 0.83 | 24.9 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.44 | – | -0.03 | -1.9 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.14 | – | 0.08 | 4.8 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.27 | – | -0.09 | -6.4 |
UK 100 called to open -5pts at 6150, the index tightening into the apex of a narrowing (and normally continuation) pattern, which could see the end-April downtrend return us to recent lows. Bears hoping for a breach of 3-day rising lows. Conversely, a break above yesterday's highs and 6200 would extend the reversal from Friday’s near 2-month lows, reviving hopes that 6430 April highs can be revisited. Watch levels: Bullish 6185, Bearish 6135.
A negative open is anticipated following a mixed Asian session as bullishness waned from a positive US close where energy and financials lead the way. Once again, a strong Yen hasn’t helped Nikkei exporters overnight after the US dollar basket came off its highs. Although commodities prices regaining poise has helped Chinese and Aussie names even if oil prices have lost some of their bounce momentum on Nigerian supply concerns.
Global growth concerns persist after weak European data and Goldman Sachs' call that a USD slump is over could keep the all-important raw materials and miners under pressure. US macro data of late can hardly be considered conducive of a rate rise though, and we maintain our belief that no hikes will come in 2016 with too many hurdles ahead (Brexit, US election).
US bourses rallied on Tuesday, with energy and materials leading gains after the Chinese government moved to inject some economic stimulus (5tn renminbi / $722bn) into the world’s 2nd largest economy. Oil prices went higher on that and those short term supply disruptions in Canada and Libya, though most Canadian oil sands production is set to be back online in the coming days or weeks.
Crude stockpile data from the API failing to offset overnight gains with rising US inventories, though crude prices are off their highs this morning ahead of another print - this time from the US Government (EIA) - that could tip the balance to the downside.
Gold has edged higher this morning as the USD pulls back - the key level to watch on the Dollar Basket being support at 94.0 with Momentum having turned down again in negative territory. A break below would boost Gold further, however there’s not much in the way of fresh economic woe this morning to provide buoyancy on safe haven grounds.
In focus today will be UK Industrial Production after poor reads for Germany, France and Italy. As the Brexit debate intensifies deliverance of a consensus rebound could help the leave camp. Thereafter the UK NIESR 3-month read for GDP is of interest given the group cut its estimate for 2016 this week. And then US Oil inventories are sure to excite those watching the price of a barrel. Speakers today include Osborne and Merkel.
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