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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Anglo American PLC | 1237.5 | 83.0 | 7.2 | 6.7 |
| Tesco PLC | 213 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 |
| Rio Tinto PLC | 3293.5 | 160.5 | 5.1 | 4.3 |
| Whitbread PLC | 4051 | 186.0 | 4.8 | 7.3 |
| Fresnillo PLC | 1432 | 62.0 | 4.5 | 17.3 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Direct Line Insurance Group PLC | 357 | -11.0 | -3.0 | -3.4 |
| Admiral Group PLC | 1780 | -48.0 | -2.6 | -2.6 |
| DCC PLC | 6095 | -110.0 | -1.8 | 0.9 |
| National Grid PLC | 934.6 | -16.1 | -1.7 | -1.8 |
| Centrica PLC | 226.8 | -3.6 | -1.6 | -3.1 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 7,275.5 | 37.7 | 0.52 | 0.9 |
| UK | 18,413.3 | 33.7 | 0.18 | 0.4 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,888.2 | 0.7 | 0.01 | -0.4 |
| DE DAX 30 | 11,583.3 | 19.3 | 0.17 | -0.1 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 19,855.5 | -32.0 | -0.16 | -0.5 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 5,551.8 | 20.0 | 0.36 | 0.6 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,268.9 | – | 0.00 | -0.4 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 19,364.7 | 63.2 | 0.33 | 1.3 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 22,901.6 | 156.8 | 0.69 | 4.1 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,771.5 | 10.8 | 0.19 | 1.9 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 51.06 | -0.49 | -0.95 | -4.9 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 53.84 | -0.50 | -0.91 | -5.3 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1190.25 | 4.05 | 0.34 | 1.5 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 16.89 | 0.08 | 0.46 | 2.3 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.2158 | -0.0129 | -0.13 | -1.1 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.0559 | 0.0025 | 0.07 | 0.2 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.1514 | -0.0155 | -0.20 | -1.3 |
UK 100 Index called to open flat at 7275, holding a 1-month rising channel. In fact, an overnight bounce from 7260 keeps a now steeper gradient from last Friday alive and a break above 7270 falling highs means it could be in the midst of a 24-hour bullish flag that takes it as high as 7330. Bulls want to see yesterday’s highs of 7287 exceeded. Bears require a breach of 7260 overnight lows to jeopardise off 3-day rising support. Watch levels: Bullish 7285, Bearish 7260..
Calls for another flat start follow a mixed US close (Dow down, S&P flat, Nasdaq rally) as oil lost ground while equities in Asia rose overnight. The latter is derived from a weak Yen taking the pressure off Japan’s Nikkei exporters while a continued rally in base metal prices (thanks to Monday’s Chinese inflation data), has helped miners lead the way on Australia's ASX overnight to offset weakness among energy names.
This morning’s major UK corporate news is retailer J Sainsbury (SBRY) reporting Q3 same store sales growth ex. fuel that beat consensus, helped by Argos, although the impact of a weak Pound remains uncertain. Fellow retailer Ted Baker (TED) appears to have had a good Christmas and management expects 2017 to meet consensus expectations.
Housebuilder Taylor Wimpey (TW) expects FY profits at the upper end of consensus allowing it to pay significant dividends, adding to Persimmon's strong trading statement last week, while Industrial Cobham (COB) says adjusted profits will miss expectations and that it is scrapping its dividend.
In another mixed session for US equities, the Nasdaq once again outperformed its peers on its way to a fresh all-time high as the Healthcare sector led the index higher by 0.4%. The Dow Jones moved further away from 20k after a brief foray above 19,950, closing 0.3% lower on Energy name weakness whilst the S&P 500 closed flat for the first time nine years, highlighting a split in opinions in the lead up to Donald Trump’s presidency.
Crude Oil prices took another leg lower yesterday as Libya increases output, falling to their lowest level (Brent $53.60, US $50.70) since the OPEC production cut deal was agreed in November, although have once again found some support during Asian trading hours. As always this afternoon’s DOE Oil inventories figures will move the market, however today’s release may prove more poignant given concerns a US crude production uptick could offset the potential supply rebalancing that OPEC is seeking to achieve.
Gold price is once again rising, posting a fresh one month high at $1191 as safe-haven demand increases with the inauguration of Donald Trump just nine days away. The precious metal could be on the end of a significant reaction to the President-elect’s press conference at 4pm, although early focus will remain on the US Dollar after the commodity-denominating currency rallies during Asian trading hours.
In focus today will be President-elect Trump’s press conference at 4pm UK this afternoon, possibly his last official appearance before a his Jan 20 inauguration. After his latest bout of furious tweeting and success in encouraging corporates to expand at home rather than abroad, what will he have to add, and will he comment on overnight ‘kompromat’ claims about his links to Russia and conduct behind closed doors?
Data-wise November updates on UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production and Construction Output are released at 8am. The former is forecast to rebound from its weakest since summer 2012 while Manufacturing reverses a 6-month downtrend to return positive. After last week’s PMI Construction print showed continued recovery from a summer Brexit wobble, all eyes will be on whether Construction Output bounces back from a weak October.
Thereafter the main data points of the afternoon are limited to the UK NIESR GDP estimate, with consensus looking for 3-month growth to have accelerated slightly in December, something that Retail figures, House Prices and multiple UK corporate trading updates attest to so far this year.
Other major speakers include EU President Juncker at 10.45am (part of traditional visit to incoming rotating presidency of EU Council; Malta’s first since joining EU in 2004), Bank of England (BoE) Governor Carney testifying to the UK Treasury Select Committee at 2.15pm and the Fed’s Dudley speaking about banking culture from a regulatory perspective at 6.20pm
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