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Morning Report - 10 March 2017

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Aviva PLC 544 33.0 6.5 11.8
Capita PLC 549 24.5 4.7 3.4
Admiral Group PLC 1910 81.0 4.4 4.5
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 571 23.0 4.2 29.5
easyJet PLC 974.5 34.5 3.7 -3.0
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets PLC 230.8 -16.2 -6.6 0.0
BHP Billiton PLC 1249.5 -76.5 -5.8 -4.4
Anglo American PLC 1149 -55.5 -4.6 -1.0
Glencore PLC 307 -11.6 -3.7 10.7
Antofagasta PLC 754.5 -24.0 -3.1 11.8
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 7,315.0 -19.7 -0.27 2.4
UK 18,891.5 -39.6 -0.21 4.5
FR CAC 40 4,981.5 21.0 0.42 2.5
DE DAX 30 11,978.4 11.1 0.09 4.3
US DJ Industrial Average 30 20,858.3 2.5 0.01 5.5
US Nasdaq Composite 5,838.8 1.3 0.02 8.5
US S&P 500 2,364.9 1.9 0.08 5.6
JP Nikkei 225 19,604.6 286.0 1.48 2.6
HK Hang Seng Index 50 23,542.0 40.5 0.17 7.0
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,775.6 34.4 0.60 1.9
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 49.67 0.56 1.13 -8.0
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 52.55 0.59 1.14 -6.1
Gold ($/oz) 1197.35 -2.35 -0.2 -4.8
Silver ($/oz) 16.93 -0.01 -0.07 -7.7
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2155 0.00 -0.01 -2.5
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.0598 0.00 0.17 0.4
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1472 0.00 -0.16 -2.9
UK 100 called to open +20pts at 7335

UK 100 : 2-week; hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +20pts at 7335, having rebounded from yesterday’s flirt with 7260. Whilst back above 7310 and 7300 having served as support overnight, note resistance already kicked in at 7340 via March falling highs. Bulls need to overcome this to open the door for a re-test of the 7397 record. Bears need a pullback to test 7310. Watch levels: Bullish 7345, Bearish 7325.

Calls for a positive open come courtesy of a flat finish on Wall Street that snapped a 3-day run of losses onto which Asian investors have latched for a positive end to their trading week ahead of a key US jobs report that could seal the deal on a Fed rate hike next week.

Oil prices back with a $50/52 handle, after completing 7% bearish flags which weighed heavily on sentiment, is helping revive bullishness. However, looming falling highs resistance may require more talk of OPEC cuts being extended to offset rising US production. China data and Eurozone politics still bubbling in the background.

Japan’s Nikkei is out[performing thanks to the USD finding its feet to weaken the Yen and help exporter names. Australia’s ASX is posting solid gains thanks to Financials (looming Fed rate hike) and Consumer Staples, while Energy benefits from Oil off its lows and Miners from base metals like Copper bouncing back from recent weakness.

UK Index sentiment may be impacted by BT’s agreement to separate its Openreach network to meet competition concerns. Watch the likes of BT, VOD and SKY. After much excitement from the insurance sector this week, esure 2016 earnings growth allows it pay a further special dividend. Hikma Pharmaceuticals has launched a new depression drug. Precious metals Miners like Fresnillo and Randgold will likely be impacted by Gold and Silver below $1200 and $17, respectively.

US indices closed a handful of points above zero yesterday, breaking its 3-day losing streak, as investors prepared for today’s crucial US Jobs Report while crude oil prices stabilised following a 7% decline. A recovery within the healthcare sector following Tuesday’s Trump tweet-inspired sell off saw the S&P 500 gain just shy of two points, while Johnson & Johnson helped the Dow Jones to stay just above flat.

Crude Oil, having mounted a mild recovery in yesterday’s US session and this morning’s Asian trading is back under pressure heading into the European open. A break below key support levels of $52 for Brent and $49 for US crude could see a challenging week for global benchmarks end on the backfoot. With US production measures this week resulting in as much as a 7% decline, tonight’s Baker Hughes Rig Count could be crucial for sentiment heading into the weekend.

Gold is trading below $1200/troy oz. for the first time since January ahead of this afternoon's US Jobs Report and with the US dollar finding support overnight. Anything other than a disastrous reading for Non-Farm Payrolls is likely to result in a rate hike next week, a bearish factor for non-yielding gold, with Fed fund futures already fully pricing in a rate hike on Wednesday.

In focus today will be those all-important Non-Farm Payrolls (200K est), the US jobs report as a whole likely sealing the deal on a Fed rate hike next week, so long as unemployment holds around the lows and wages growth remains pointing north.

Also of note will be the trio of UK Industrial & Manufacturing Production and Construction Output all seen posting negative growth in January continuing to slow from November’s post-referendum resilience highs. If anything, inflation expectations building from 2.8% may prove more interesting in terms of pressure on the Bank of England.

Other data today includes the UK Trade Balance, forecast almost unchanged, UK NIESR GDP Estimate, seen marginally weaker, and, as always, the Baker Hughes Rig Count, perhaps in the spotlight more so than normal following Crude Oil’s calamitous week. Will bears have something else to latch onto going into the weekend?

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • RBS: A judge on Thursday ordered legal representatives  to prove they have insurance to meet the hefty risks of a £12bn cash call trial.
  • BP: Plans to open about 1,500 new BP across Mexico over the next five years, company executives said on Thursday.
  • ROLLS-ROYCE: Rolls-Royce's engineering head is quitting little more than a year after taking the job in the latest management shake-up by Chief Executive Warren East (FT)
  • BANK OF ENGLAND: MPs on the Treasury committee discussed whether to ask the Bank of England to cancel Charlotte Hogg's promotion to deputy governor after she admitted failing to disclose information (FT)
  • As Britain prepares to leave the European Union, some carmakers are considering sourcing more parts locally and producing more models they can sell domestically rather than export to soften potential tariffs hit after Brexit

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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