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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Aviva PLC | 544 | 33.0 | 6.5 | 11.8 |
| Capita PLC | 549 | 24.5 | 4.7 | 3.4 |
| Admiral Group PLC | 1910 | 81.0 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group SA | 571 | 23.0 | 4.2 | 29.5 |
| easyJet PLC | 974.5 | 34.5 | 3.7 | -3.0 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets PLC | 230.8 | -16.2 | -6.6 | 0.0 |
| BHP Billiton PLC | 1249.5 | -76.5 | -5.8 | -4.4 |
| Anglo American PLC | 1149 | -55.5 | -4.6 | -1.0 |
| Glencore PLC | 307 | -11.6 | -3.7 | 10.7 |
| Antofagasta PLC | 754.5 | -24.0 | -3.1 | 11.8 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 7,315.0 | -19.7 | -0.27 | 2.4 |
| UK | 18,891.5 | -39.6 | -0.21 | 4.5 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,981.5 | 21.0 | 0.42 | 2.5 |
| DE DAX 30 | 11,978.4 | 11.1 | 0.09 | 4.3 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 20,858.3 | 2.5 | 0.01 | 5.5 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 5,838.8 | 1.3 | 0.02 | 8.5 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,364.9 | 1.9 | 0.08 | 5.6 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 19,604.6 | 286.0 | 1.48 | 2.6 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 23,542.0 | 40.5 | 0.17 | 7.0 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,775.6 | 34.4 | 0.60 | 1.9 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 49.67 | 0.56 | 1.13 | -8.0 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 52.55 | 0.59 | 1.14 | -6.1 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1197.35 | -2.35 | -0.2 | -4.8 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 16.93 | -0.01 | -0.07 | -7.7 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.2155 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -2.5 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.0598 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.4 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.1472 | 0.00 | -0.16 | -2.9 |
UK 100 Index called to open +20pts at 7335, having rebounded from yesterday’s flirt with 7260. Whilst back above 7310 and 7300 having served as support overnight, note resistance already kicked in at 7340 via March falling highs. Bulls need to overcome this to open the door for a re-test of the 7397 record. Bears need a pullback to test 7310. Watch levels: Bullish 7345, Bearish 7325.
Calls for a positive open come courtesy of a flat finish on Wall Street that snapped a 3-day run of losses onto which Asian investors have latched for a positive end to their trading week ahead of a key US jobs report that could seal the deal on a Fed rate hike next week.
Oil prices back with a $50/52 handle, after completing 7% bearish flags which weighed heavily on sentiment, is helping revive bullishness. However, looming falling highs resistance may require more talk of OPEC cuts being extended to offset rising US production. China data and Eurozone politics still bubbling in the background.
Japan’s Nikkei is out[performing thanks to the USD finding its feet to weaken the Yen and help exporter names. Australia’s ASX is posting solid gains thanks to Financials (looming Fed rate hike) and Consumer Staples, while Energy benefits from Oil off its lows and Miners from base metals like Copper bouncing back from recent weakness.
UK Index sentiment may be impacted by BT’s agreement to separate its Openreach network to meet competition concerns. Watch the likes of BT, VOD and SKY. After much excitement from the insurance sector this week, esure 2016 earnings growth allows it pay a further special dividend. Hikma Pharmaceuticals has launched a new depression drug. Precious metals Miners like Fresnillo and Randgold will likely be impacted by Gold and Silver below $1200 and $17, respectively.
US indices closed a handful of points above zero yesterday, breaking its 3-day losing streak, as investors prepared for today’s crucial US Jobs Report while crude oil prices stabilised following a 7% decline. A recovery within the healthcare sector following Tuesday’s Trump tweet-inspired sell off saw the S&P 500 gain just shy of two points, while Johnson & Johnson helped the Dow Jones to stay just above flat.
Crude Oil, having mounted a mild recovery in yesterday’s US session and this morning’s Asian trading is back under pressure heading into the European open. A break below key support levels of $52 for Brent and $49 for US crude could see a challenging week for global benchmarks end on the backfoot. With US production measures this week resulting in as much as a 7% decline, tonight’s Baker Hughes Rig Count could be crucial for sentiment heading into the weekend.
Gold is trading below $1200/troy oz. for the first time since January ahead of this afternoon's US Jobs Report and with the US dollar finding support overnight. Anything other than a disastrous reading for Non-Farm Payrolls is likely to result in a rate hike next week, a bearish factor for non-yielding gold, with Fed fund futures already fully pricing in a rate hike on Wednesday.
In focus today will be those all-important Non-Farm Payrolls (200K est), the US jobs report as a whole likely sealing the deal on a Fed rate hike next week, so long as unemployment holds around the lows and wages growth remains pointing north.
Also of note will be the trio of UK Industrial & Manufacturing Production and Construction Output all seen posting negative growth in January continuing to slow from November’s post-referendum resilience highs. If anything, inflation expectations building from 2.8% may prove more interesting in terms of pressure on the Bank of England.
Other data today includes the UK Trade Balance, forecast almost unchanged, UK NIESR GDP Estimate, seen marginally weaker, and, as always, the Baker Hughes Rig Count, perhaps in the spotlight more so than normal following Crude Oil’s calamitous week. Will bears have something else to latch onto going into the weekend?
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