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Morning Report - 10 August 2017

Yesterday’s UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Fresnillo PLC 1544 72.0 4.9 26.5
Randgold Resources Ltd 7380 200.0 2.8 15.0
Worldpay Group PLC 388.5 4.9 1.3 43.9
BAE Systems PLC 582.5 7.0 1.2 -1.5
Mediclinic International PLC 736 8.0 1.1 -4.5
Yesterday’s UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
G4S PLC 305.9 -24.7 -7.5 30.2
Standard Chartered PLC 783.1 -20.9 -2.6 18.0
Prudential PLC 1841.5 -44.0 -2.3 13.2
Shire PLC 3945 -92.0 -2.3 -15.8
Ashtead Group PLC 1623 -36.0 -2.2 2.7
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 7,498.1 -44.7 -0.59 5.0
UK 19,875.0 -74.5 -0.37 9.9
FR CAC 40 5,145.7 -73.2 -1.40 5.8
DE DAX 30 12,154.0 -138.1 -1.12 5.9
US DJ Industrial Average 30 22,048.8 -36.5 -0.17 11.6
US Nasdaq Composite 6,352.3 -18.1 -0.28 18.0
US S&P 500 2,474.0 -0.9 -0.04 10.5
JP Nikkei 225 19,726.1 -12.6 -0.06 3.2
HK Hang Seng Index 50 27,459.6 -297.5 -1.07 24.8
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,760.9 -4.8 -0.08 1.7
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 4966.50 50.50 1.03 -7.8
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 5283.50 59.00 1.13 -7.1
Gold ($/oz) 128430.00 270.00 0.21 11.5
Silver ($/oz) 1697.25 7.25 0.43 6.3
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2976 -0.27 5.1
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.1734 -0.25 11.6
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1058 -0.02 -5.8
UK 100 called to open -40pts at 7455

UK 100 : 2-month, 6-hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -40pts at 7455 having adjusted by 41pts for ex-dividends. This extends the trend of falling highs from Tuesday’s 7550 peak.  Whilst 7450 has held up as support overnight, Bulls are likely eyeing up August rising support at 7440 to engineer a bounce. Bears are looking for a breach of 7450 and then 7440 to trigger a full retrace to the 7375 floor of the July/August shallow rising channel. Bulls need a break above 7480 overnight highs to see 7500 again. Watch levels: Bullish 7480, Bearish 7440.

Calls for a negative open (flat after dividends) come following minor losses in Asia overnight where sentiment remains understandably hampered by geopolitical concerns towards North Korea, although the tone of rhetoric has at least cooled on the US side.

Most safe havens remain bid - Gold around 2-month highs - but this is not necessarily at the expense of all risk assets, with oil approaching is best levels for August following yesterday’s US inventory data (big crude drawdown), Copper flat around recent 2yr highs and iron ore off its lows.

UK Index housebuilders may be impacted by overnight RICS House Price data suggesting that declines are starting to spread beyond London as political uncertainty and tax changes weigh on the top end of the market.

Japan’s Nikkei is just the wrong side of break even as consumer staples and financials offset gains for Energy, and it’s a similar picture down under where Australia's ASX is only losing a little ground due to declines for Consumer staples and healthcare, but higher oil and buoyancy among industrial metals is helping both Energy and Miners.

US markets closed lower, keeping the Dow Jones’ from its recent high, after heavy losses for Walt Disney and of course geopolitics on the other side of the world, while the fed’s Evans suggested a December rate hike is a possibility.

In focus today will be UK Construction Output (9.30am) forecast to deliver a big rebound in June after a flat APril and May. Industrial and Manufacturing Production are also forecast to show improvements although growth remains muted to say the least.

This afternoon, with US inflation being closely monitored for clues about when the Fed might next hike interest rates, listen out for US Producer Price Inflation (1.30pm). The Headline rate is seen flat in July and a touch quicker for Core, however, annually things may have picked up for both.

The Fed’s Dudley (dovish) speaks mid-afternoon which could influence Fed rate hike expectations and thus USD, with a knock on for GBP and EUR, and UK Index and DAX respectively.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

 

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Furniture seller DFS says weak demand to hit full-year profit
  • UK's Amec Foster Wheeler reports 8 pct dip in H1 trading profit
  • British bank Aldermore's first – half profit jumps 32 pct
  • Oil prices move higher after U.S. stockpiles fall
  • Savills says performance for FY will be in line with board's expectations
  • Hill & Smith Holdings HY revenue up 13 pct
  • Card Factory says expectations for full financial year unchanged
  • Premier Oil says Roy Franklin will join as non – executive chairman
  • UK's Cineworld half – year revenue rises 17.8 pct
  • Glencore raises earnings guidance, sees electric vehicles boosting demand
  • Russia's Evraz says H1 core earnings almost double on higher prices
  • Kerry Group cuts FY EPS growth forecast on currency headwinds
  • TUI ups turnover forecast on resilient tourism demand
  • Aegon Strengthens Dutch Capital Position and Reports Strong 2Q 2017 Results
  • Adecco Q2 profit rises 1 pct, hiring momentum continues
  • Gold inches down from near – two month high
  • Australia's mining giant Rio Tinto slips; trades ex-dividend

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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