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Morning Report - 10 August 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Standard Life PLC 340 21.5 6.8 -12.8
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The) PLC 192.3 7.6 4.1 -36.3
TUI AG 1016 36.5 3.7 -16.1
easyJet PLC 1076 37.0 3.6 -38.2
Standard Chartered PLC 668.2 18.8 2.9 18.5
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Legal & General Group PLC 206 -12.1 -5.6 -23.1
Carnival PLC 3589 -87.0 -2.4 -7.2
Sky PLC 898 -10.0 -1.1 -19.2
Aviva PLC 418.5 -4.5 -1.1 -18.9
Antofagasta PLC 525.5 -5.5 -1.0 12.0
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,851.3 42.2 0.62 9.8
UK 17,687.4 129.7 0.74 1.5
FR CAC 40 4,468.1 52.6 1.19 -3.6
DE DAX 30 10,692.9 260.5 2.50 -0.5
US DJ Industrial Average 30 18,533.0 3.8 0.02 6.4
US Nasdaq Composite 5,225.5 12.3 0.24 4.4
US S&P 500 2,181.7 0.9 0.04 6.7
JP Nikkei 225 16,755.6 -9.4 -0.06 -12.0
HK Hang Seng Index 50 22,520.6 55.0 0.24 2.8
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,540.3 -12.3 -0.22 4.6
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 42.71 -0.35 -0.8 15.2
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 44.96 -0.31 -0.68 19.6
Gold ($/oz) 1357.75 10.05 0.75 28.0
Silver ($/oz) 20.18 0.25 1.24 46.0
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.31 0.37 -11.4
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.12 0.3 2.7
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.17 0.08 -13.7
UK 100 called to open -15pts 6835

UK 100 , 1-month chart (Source: IT Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -15pts at 6835 as the index takes a break at the last significant resistance before the key 7000 level. Bulls looking to 6800 to hold as support for a breakout above 6875 today, while bears will note the RSI very close to overbought and look for a pullback below 6800 to pick up a few points worth of downside to 6700. Bullish 6900, Bearish 6785.

A negative opening call for European equities comes amid a mixed session in Asia Pacific with the Yen strengthening as Japanese machine tool orders rebounded from a 1.5yr low and the pace of deflation eased. A weaker USD is adding to strength in Asia-Pacific currencies. Note this could also act to ease the FX translation benefits enjoyed by some UK 100 multinationals as GBP ticks back up from its sub-1.30 lows.

US equities eased back after making new record intraday highs, with energy stocks underperforming after oil prices reversed once more - volatility in that space coming with the mandatory OPEC hot air. A mixture of US macro data saw a rise in Unit Labour Costs, but a worrisome pullback in Q2 Non-farm Productivity saw the USD sell off.

Crude prices are again subject to OPEC ‘smoke and mirrors’ with mere talk of forthcoming meetings doing the job of raising prices. This coming just as crude oil heads back into bear market territory! Actual action by the cartel seems less and less likely when all it needs to do is talk about a production freeze, but once people realise this the game will surely have to change. Note US DOE oil inventory data due out at 3.30pm today.

Gold has benefitted from a weaker USD following yesterday’s macro data and a bounce in the GBP. The yellow metal looks to have met resistance at $1355 while $1350 and the 200- and 100-hour moving averages should provide decent enough support to keep the uptrend from yesterday afternoon alive.

A quiet day on the macro front sees US MBA Mortgage Applications at midday, a useful consumer confidence barometer. US JOLTS Job Openings are seen flat in June at 3pm, while DOE Crude Oil Inventories come in at 3.30pm - sure to move the oil price, but will focus remain on distillates?

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • G4S posts 8 pct rise in first – half earnings and maintains dividend
  • Gem Diamonds says FY cost guidance may need to be re – assessed
  • Gold miner Centamin hikes FY production forecast
  • Petra Diamonds mines 138 – carat white diamond from Cullinan
  • Land Securities secures three new lettings in London's W2 district
  • HKEX Q2 net profit slides 38 pct on lower trading
  • PKC Group awarded rolling stock contract with total value up to EUR 200 mln
  • London copper steady near 1 – mth low as demand growth ebbs
  • Mayor of London calls for delay in triggering Article 50 until next autumn – Sky News
  • Oil dips on oversupply; calls for producer meeting met with scepticism
  • Entertainment One to say it rejects ITV offer – FT
  • BHP Billiton appoints Ken Mackenzie as independent non-executive director

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