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Morning Report - 1 August 2017

Yesterday’s UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Severn Trent 2240 88.0 4.1 0.8
United Utilities Group 897.5 26.0 3.0 -0.4
Hargreaves Lansdown 1380 38.0 2.8 13.8
Standard Chartered 846.7 19.6 2.4 27.6
Next 3950 85.0 2.2 -20.7
Yesterday’s UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Imperial Brands 3120 -195.5 -5.9 -11.9
British American Tobacco 4713.5 -246.5 -5.0 2.0
Rolls-Royce Group 888 -41.0 -4.4 32.9
easyJet 1236 -39.0 -3.1 23.0
Mediclinic International 740 -20.0 -2.6 -4.0
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 7,372.0 3.6 0.05 3.2
UK 19,781.0 52.9 0.27 9.4
FR CAC 40 5,093.8 -37.6 -0.73 4.8
DE DAX 30 12,118.3 -44.4 -0.37 5.6
US DJ Industrial Average 30 21,891.0 60.8 0.28 10.8
US Nasdaq Composite 6,348.1 -26.6 -0.42 17.9
US S&P 500 2,470.3 -1.8 -0.07 10.3
JP Nikkei 225 19,985.8 60.6 0.30 4.6
HK Hang Seng Index 50 27,518.1 194.1 0.71 25.1
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,772.4 51.8 0.91 1.9
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 50.30 0.86 1.73 8.4
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 52.85 0.77 1.48 8.5
Gold ($/oz) 1275.65 2.15 0.17 1.8
Silver ($/oz) 16.81 0.02 0.13 2.2
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.3210 0.09 1.4
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.1818 -0.03 1.5
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1179 0.14 -0.1
UK 100 called to open +40pts at 7410

UK 100 : 2 months; 4-hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +40pts at 7410, with an overnight bounce from 7380 extending Friday’s rebound, to keep the long-term uptrend alive. A pause around 7410 over the last few hours looks increasingly like a bullish flag before another 30pt jump north. 3-day bullish ascending triangle reversal? Bulls need a break above 7420 to conquer yesterday’s highs; bears need a breach of the 7405 lows of the last few hours. Watch levels: Bullish 7420, Bearish 7405.

Calls for a positive European open follow a mixed US close and a solid gains in Asia overnight. The former can be partly attributed to another round of White House musical chairs that keeps the USD weak, in turn buoying the key commodity sector (oil at end-May highs) which got a boost from better than expected China PMI Manufacturing (4-month high) overnight.

The Aussie ASX outperforms thanks to gains for financials after the RBA held monetary policy and echoing Hong Kong’s welcoming of HSBC results. China PMI Manufacturing also offered a helping hand to natural resources names and their wares. Japan’s Nikkei is positive thanks to domestic financial results, although it underperforms regional peers.

UK Index corporate news includes BP Q2 underlying replacement cost profit $0.7bn, pre-tax profit $928m, EPS 72c, upstream major projects on track, keeps div at 10c. UK SFO formal opens investigation into British American Tobacco after internal investigation into misconduct.

Taylor Wimpey declares special div of £340m/10.4per share. AstraZeneca granted breakthrough therapy designation by US FDA for mantle cell lymphoma. Fresnillo On Track to Achieve 2017 Production Target. Intertek raises dividend to 23.5p vs 19.4p. Rolls-Royce 2017 FY outlook Unchanged. Centrica to hike UK electricity prices by 12.5% from mid-Sept.

US equity markets once again finished mixed as the Dow Jones outperformed its peers, powering to another fresh record closing high. Strong performances from Goldman Sachs, Home Depot and 3M offset losses for DuPont, lifting the 30 stock index by 60 points, while Tech names again weighed on both the Nasdaq and S&P500, the former underperforming as result lift the latter to close just shy of breakeven.

Crude Oil benchmarks have taken another leg higher, shaking off fresh concerns of OPEC compliance as the US dollar falls to fresh 13-month lows. Rallying to the ceiling of 1-week uptrends, US crude has maintained a $50 per barrel handle for the first time since the end of May, while global benchmark Brent crude claims a $52.75 for the first time since 25 May.

Gold, however, has failed to capitalise on fresh US dollar weakness as investors consolidate positions at 6-week highs. While the precious metal has rallied from yesterday morning’s lows of $1266, it has been unable to retain the $1271 handle it attained in Asian trading on Sunday night. The safe-haven asset is falling from the ceiling of yesterday’s rising channel as investors continue to book profits.

Fresh after yesterday’s Core CPI beat, in focus today will be the preliminary reading for Eurozone Q2 GDP (10am). With expectations for annual growth to surpass 2% for the first time since Q1 2011, and the 0.6% quarterly rate matching last quarter’s best since Q1 2015. Good news for Europe along with unemployment at an 8-yr low, but with inflation still below the 2% target, President Draghi and his ECB team still have work to do.

Elsewhere in Europe, a range of Manufacturing PMI prints will steal the early limelight. Spain (8:15am) and Italy (8:45am) are seen virtually unchanged before France’s (8:50am) is expected confirmed at a 6-year high while Germany (8:55am) is seen confirmed at a 3-month low, albeit still very strong.

This afternoon, US Personal Income and Spending Figures (12:30pm) are both forecast unchanged in June, however greater focus may fall on PCE/Core PCE prints for the latest insight into US inflationary pressures. Rounding things off are US Manufacturing PMI (2:45pm) and ISM Manufacturing (3pm), the former seen confirmed rebounding from an 11-month low, while the latter falls from a 3-year high.

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • WM Morrison Supermarkets to partner with Mccoll's
  • British testing Intertek's first-half profit rises
  • AstraZeneca gets breakthrough status for blood cancer drug
  • RollsRoyce first – half profit rises as it steps up production
  • Fresnillo's profit almost doubles in first half
  • National Grid says 12.85% votes cast against directors' pay report at AGM
  • BBA Aviation raises interim dividend by 5%
  • Centrica Says on track to achieve 2017 targets
  • Centrica increases price of electricity on British gas standard tariff
  • Genel Energy revenue and production lowers from year – ago
  • Price comparison website Gocompare H1 profit up on higher marketing margins, remains confident about meeting FY expectations
  • Britain's Meggitt on track to meet annual forecasts
  • British American Tobacco says informed of investigation into misconduct allegations
  • UK house prices rise for second month in July – Nationwide
  • Direct Line Insurance ups dividend 38.8% to 6.8 pence
  • Taylor Wimpey reports HY pretax profit of £205m Versus £268.8m Year Ago
  • Vantiv granted extension to make firm bid for Worldpay
  • BP Q2 profit beats forecasts, falls after Angola write – off, says gearing level was 28.8% at Q2 end
  • British hedge fund Man Group's assets up 19% in H1
  • BHP Billiton denies it has agreed to sell Samarco stake to Vale
  • Shell reports hydrogen leak during Pernis refinery maintenance
  • Shell invests in Singapore solar firm Sunseap; eyes solar projects
  • London copper hovers below 2 – yr top as global growth supports
  • Gold steady near 7 – week highs on struggling dollar
  • US oil prices open above $50 for first time since May, but headwinds persist

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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