Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +10pts at 6135, having posted rising lows since yesterday’s late test of 6100 March support. This keeps the index in its March sideways consolidation shift, although falling highs over the last 4 days area concern. Until we get a breakdown, however, the 6-week uptrend towards 6400 remains alive. Watch levels: Bullish 6160, Bearish 6120.

The positive opening call is quite reassuring in our view, with European futures holding up remarkably well overnight despite the weak US close and mixed Asian session. Dreary Chinese Trade data and Goldman Sachs’ call to cash out of the recent commodity rally have held back sentiment. The IMF has also chipped in to warn of the ‘risk of economic derailment’ without immediate action. A not very subtle hint to major central banks ahead of a run of policy updates. The ECB is first up tomorrow, with the weight of markets on Draghi’s shoulders not to disappoint. Again.

Chinese stocks underperforming as they come off recent recovery highs following yesterday’s poor trade data and despite the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) fixing the renminbi lower for the first day in  five. Japan’s Nikkei in the red as the Yen adds to recent strength on safehaven seeking. This may force the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) hand next week in terms of more policy easing with the currency’s strength only serving to further stifle already lacking economic momentum. Australia's ASX is posting gains despite energy and commodity price weakness.

US markets closed down yesterday as global growth concerns kicked in again after that poor Chinese trade data. Less perceived demand for commodities sent materials stocks south with oil also suffering from the realisation that nothing’s changed fundamentally on that front either. Energy names suffering off the back of that.

The Fed’s Hilsenrath indicated the US central bank is likely to hold off on a rate hike this month, while keeping the door ajar for April or June. However, by the time April comes around, we’re heading ever closer to a US presidential election, so the wider market issues had better improve markedly by then.

In focus today: UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production with rebounds expected for both however the afternoon may show US Wholesale Inventories continuing to weaken from the prior month and Wholesale Sales contraction unchanged. No change expected to policy from the Bank of Canada, before US Crude Inventories  are almost certain to deliver another barrel of volatility to an already overly sensitive oil price.

Crude oil prices came back from highs yesterday afternoon but have managed to remain supported overnight. Nonetheless, we’ve had an EIA outlook downgrade with the US energy department suggesting global inventories are likely to grow more rapidly over the next two years than previously expected. News of a 20 March meeting in Moscow to discuss output is buoying prices as we write.

Other drivers remain largely to do with a weaker global growth outlook and a group of oil producing nations, who don’t trust each other, desperate to protect market share and thus unwilling to curb supply. So the fundamentals are still pretty bearish.

Gold came back to support overnight and is now in a 3-day sideways channel. We note technicals kicking back up from oversold and momentum rising back towards its zero line, with $1265 a potential targets for bulls today as global uncertainty re-surfaces. All things fundamental being equal, Gold could go all the way back to $1278 within the week.   

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

• AstraZeneca says U.S. FDA grants orphan drug status for potential eye drug
• Restaurant Group full – year profit rises 7.9 pct to 86.8 mln stg
• SIG sees scope for further cost savings
• Metals steadies after biggest one – day drop since Nov on China woes
• Swiss staffing group Adecco says to buy UK recruitment firm Penna Consulting
• Cairn Energy successful tests SNE – 3 well offshore Senegal
• Hotel Chocolat eyes listing on London's AIM
• Lookers expects further growth in 2016 after profits rise
• China anxiety hits stocks, oil still shaky
• Regency Mines Horse Hill-1 Flow Test Portland Zone
• DS Smith Trading in Line With Expectations