Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -45pts at 6135, after selling back down to 6125 overnight where shallow 4-day rising support kicked in to maintain March’s sideways consolidation. This keeps the longer-term uptrend and chance of a 6400 revisit alive. Watch levels: Bullish 6165, Bearish 6120.

The negative opening call comes after a negative session in Asia as oil and many commodities came off recovery highs and mixed data muddied the macro outlook. This as investors gear up for policy updates from the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday followed by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Bank of England (BoE) and US Federal Reserve (Fed) next week. More stimulus is expected from the former, but forward guidance will be eyed from all four.

Although the final reading for Japanese Q4 GDP contraction was not as bad as expected, a stronger Yen from safehaven seeking has held back Nikkei exporter stocks. Worse Chinese Trade data showed Feb exports plunged -25% which has spooked markets already concerned about slowing global growth rather than adding to hopes of more stimulus from Beijing (too much work to do for policy makers?). However, the Lunar New Year holiday may have interfered with the data. Note China stocks still positive!

Downunder, Australia’s ASX in the red as commodity and energy prices come off their highs with a knock-on for exposed equities as Goldman Sachs calls the current commodity rally a ‘blip’ and an opportunity for bearish investors to pounce. Mind you, this is from the investment bank that has already closed five of its six top trades for 2016, at a loss. Note Iron Ore still strong.

US markets closed mixed yesterday (DOW +0.4%, S&P +0.1%, NASDAQ -0.2%) with good performances in Energy (oil price strength) and materials (iron ore, miners) offset by weakness in tech and consumer sectors.

Fed vice chair Stan Fischer sees US inflation starting to take off. That could be construed as a suggestion that rates should go up again soon, but he was careful to avoid talking policy, leaving that to Brainard who uttered the good old word ‘patience’ among others. Fed keeping us guessing is valid policy. It can't scare with hike guarantee, nor can it fuel complacency by saying no more hikes. Macro data saw Feb Labour Market Conditions much softer than the previous reading.

In focus today, Eurozone GDP is expected to be confirmed at 0.3% QoQ and 1.5% YoY while US Small Business Optimism may have crept higher. EU Finance ministers meet again and we have the Bank of England Governor Carney speaking.

Crude oil prices continue to trend up, this time helped by a smaller than expected build at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage facility. Overnight trading saw WTI and Brent come back from highs, with Brent nonetheless bedding in above $40 and its US cousin finding support around $37.35. Given the world remains oversupplied, Brent breaking back below $40.15 would see $39.50 the next target for bears. WTI going below support $37.35 would put further declines to $36.70 on the cards.

There’s still enough uncertainty in the markets to support Gold, with ETF demand and technicals remaining the drivers of choice. Equity market robustness is slowing the yellow metal’s uptrend after a very strong start to the year with perfectly logical consensus indicating a period of profit taking may be imminent. We’re still looking to Thursday’s potential ECB bonanza.

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

• Worldpay reports 2015 net profit narrowed to £19m
• Esure says FY pretax profit +29.7% to £134m
• esure 2015 Pretax Profit Rises; Says 2016 Got Off to a Good Start
• Close Brothers says H1 adjusted operating profit +2%
• WPP says revenue and net sales grew “well over 3%” in Feb
• Foxtons posts lower profit as London prime property market cools
• Paddy Power Betfair says entered merger on strong trading momentum
• Paddy Power Posts 2015 Earnings Growth
• Gulf Keystone paid $15m by Kurdistan regional govt.
• Brent holds above $40 as investors call bottom on oil rout
• Acacia Mining to Start Paying Tanzania Corporate Tax 3 Years Early
• Infrastructure Investor John Laing Group Posts 2015 Earnings Growth
• DIY Firm Grafton Group Posts 2015 Earnings Growth