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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| ARM Holdings PLC | 977 | 33.5 | 3.6 | -1.8 |
| United Utilities Group PLC | 929 | 29.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| Aggreko PLC | 1481 | 43.0 | 3.0 | -1.5 |
| TUI AG | 1116 | 28.0 | 2.6 | 4.3 |
| Prudential PLC | 1471 | 34.5 | 2.4 | -1.4 |
| Experian PLC | 1071 | 25.0 | 2.4 | -1.6 |
| National Grid PLC | 917.5 | 20.7 | 2.3 | -0.1 |
| Severn Trent PLC | 2021 | 45.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| easyJet PLC | 1644 | -38.0 | -2.3 | -1.6 |
| Sainsbury (J) PLC | 229.6 | -5.0 | -2.1 | -6.9 |
| 3i Group PLC | 425.7 | -7.5 | -1.7 | -5.4 |
| Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets PLC | 171.4 | -2.3 | -1.3 | -7.0 |
| Associated British Foods PLC | 3054 | -34.0 | -1.1 | -3.1 |
| Coca-Cola HBC AG | 1135 | -9.0 | -0.8 | -7.6 |
| Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The) PLC | 367.4 | -2.6 | -0.7 | -6.9 |
| Hargreaves Lansdown PLC | 950 | -6.5 | -0.7 | -6.1 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,419.8 | 53.3 | 0.84 | -2.2 |
| UK | 15,851.7 | 73.1 | 0.46 | -1.5 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,112.7 | 29.2 | 0.72 | -3.7 |
| DE DAX 30 | 9,518.2 | 48.5 | 0.51 | -2.9 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 17,584.5 | 212.9 | 1.23 | -1.3 |
| US Nasdaq Composite 100 | 4,650.5 | 57.7 | 1.26 | -1.8 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,025.9 | 23.3 | 1.16 | -1.6 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 17,167.1 | 281.8 | 1.67 | -1.6 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 23,860.3 | 179.1 | 0.76 | 1.1 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,381.5 | 27.8 | 0.52 | -0.5 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) | 48.98 | 0.41 | 0.84 | -9.6 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 51.29 | 0.91 | 1.8 | -12.5 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1209.40 | -3.10 | -0.26 | 2.5 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 16.48 | -0.10 | -0.6 | 5.7 |
| Platinum ($/oz) | 1220.40 | 0.40 | 0.03 | 1.0 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.508 | – | -0.14 | -3.0 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.182 | – | -0.12 | -2.2 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.276 | – | -0.03 | -0.9 |
Click graph to enlarge
See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations
UK 100 Index called to open +65pts at 6485, with a rebound testing 6500 overnight following a breakout at 6450 which allows for a possible double bottom reversal as far as Jan 5 highs of 6570. However, the stall at 6500 keeps the downtrend from late-Dec intact and the 6570 target only takes us as far as falling resistance from early-Dec. Another bout of weakness still possible, although support at 6330 could limit downside.. Watch levels: Bullish 6530, Bearish 6440
The positive opening call can be attributed to equity gains in the US and Asia following Fed FOMC minutes, smartphone maker Samsung reporting better than forecast earnings, hopes that confirmation of negative European inflation data seals the deal on the full sovereign QE from the ECB, reports that Germany would be open to post-election debts talks with Greece and a rebound in the oil price.
US bourses closed comfortably higher, helped more by macro data (Trade balance, ADP jobs) and optimism towards Europe. There was no major reaction to Fed minutes suggesting inclusion of ‘patience’ language implied no rate raise for next couple of meetings (April?) while the low oil price was seen as an economic positive even if along with a strong USD it keeps inflation below target for some time.
Asia-Pacific equities rebounding from 3-week lows, thanks to a positive US and European lead, helped by Samsung results as well as signs of US economic progress and the prospect of European stimulus. Following the FOMC minutes, the Fed’s Evans was optimistic about US recovery but said shouldn’t rush into raising rates as inflation could remain sub-target for several years.
Japan’s Nikkei boosted by the strong USD and thus weak JPY helping exporters as well as Samsung’s earnings report. Australia’s ASX helped by an unexpected jump in November Building Approvals. Note German Factory Orders for November much weaker than expected, even with upward revisions to prior month, likely adding to Eurozone struggles argument and to the calls for ECB QE.
In focus this morning we have Eurozone Producer Price Inflation which is seen remaining negative, albeit less so than in October, but adding to regional deflationary worries. Retail sales for the region are expected more muted in November, while Confidence Surveys are forecast pretty much unchanged.
In the afternoon, the BoE policy announcement with the statement key in terms of economic outlook. With US Jobs report on Friday and after a decent ADP reading, the latest weekly stats on US jobless claims will also be eyed for any clues.
Gold continues to peter back from 3-week highs $1220, hindered by equity market progress (less safehaven demand) and the strong USD (US rate rise expectations, less petro-dollar pressure, global central bank policy divergence). Support $1205?
Oil has seen a bounce (US Light Crude $48.5/barrel and Brent $51) following US stockpile depletion which offset some of the recent selling on worries of a global supply glut despite slowing demand and hindrance from a strong USD. We are still in a bear market, but declines slowed/steadied for the moment, helped by hopes of more ECB stimulus to help with Eurozone stagnation/deflation.
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See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations
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